Singapore's retail sales dropped unexpectedly by 8.9 percent year-on-year in June 2019, missing market consensus of a 0.2% rise and after a downwardly revised 2% decline in the previous month. This was the fifth straight month of yearly fall in retail trade and the steepest since February, with sales decreasing further for motor vehicles (-32.4% vs -7.5% in May), furniture & household equipment (-15.1% vs -7%), computer & telecommunications equipment (-7.7% vs -7%). Also, there were declines in sales of petrol service (-3% vs 1.4%), recreational goods (-3.8% vs 0.7%), watches & jewelry (-4.8% vs 4.6%), and other (-0.7% vs 2%). In contrast sales rebounded for both medical goods & toiletries (1.4% vs -1.6%) and wearing apparel & footwear(1.4% vs -1%). On a monthly basis, retail sales fell unexpectedly by 2.2% in June, the same pace as in May, while markets had expected a 0.4 percent rise. Retail Sales YoY in Singapore averaged 4.91 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 50.90 percent in February of 1988 and a record low of -28.40 percent in February of 1986.
Retail Sales YoY in Singapore is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Singapore to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Singapore Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.