South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 0.5 1 1.1 1.3 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 27.20 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 24 percent
Inflation Rate 5.10 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.3 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -4657.00 2226 472 757 708 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 54 55 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 14.87
14.54 14.73 14.92 15.12 15.93
Government Bond 10Y 9.25
percent
8.96 9.05 9.14 9.24 9.61
Stock Market 56381.30
points
59334 58619 57916 57226 54530
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70
percent
0.5 1 1.1 1.3 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 1 1.2 1.3 2
GDP 349.42
USD Billion
390 390 405 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3132981.50
ZAR Million
3143072 3192693 3178106 3173710 3305395
Gross National Product 3076397.00
ZAR Million
3112861 3160818 3113314 3116390 3272395
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 615992.50
ZAR Million
612987 628346 624201 624000 650527
GDP per capita 7524.51
USD
7562 7562 7640 7640 7700
GDP per capita PPP 12294.88
USD
12300 12300 12350 12350 12395
GDP From Agriculture 70244.51
ZAR Million
78356 85669 77486 71158 88693
GDP From Construction 108776.67
ZAR Million
109392 109765 109470 110191 113639
GDP From Manufacturing 382563.62
ZAR Million
386582 393412 387400 387537 407300
GDP From Mining 231638.37
ZAR Million
238548 237510 231615 234650 245894
GDP From Public Administration 480320.97
ZAR Million
478467 483493 486726 486565 500560
GDP From Services 643923.33
ZAR Million
637050 645526 648573 652294 668314
GDP From Transport 267778.61
ZAR Million
269535 273299 274438 271260 282946
GDP From Utilities 65588.74
ZAR Million
64884 65864 66035 66441 68189
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.20
percent
27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 24
Employed Persons 9838000.00
9978000 10111000 10511000 10711000 11711000
Unemployed Persons 6100.00
Thousand
6570 6610 6037 6059 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10
percent
59.67 60.5 59.65 59.18 61
Labour Costs 148.30
Index Points
153 155 156 158 173
Wages 19858.00
ZAR/Month
20500 20500 20200 21612 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17146.00
ZAR/Month
17600 17900 17100 18211 19000
Population 56.52
Million
58 58 59 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 21300.00
ZAR/Month
21700 21700 22100 20101 23200
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00
ZAR/Month
4108 4108 4157 4073 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 53.70
percent
52.24 51.44 52.18 53.07 51.51
Living Wage Family 10300.00
ZAR/Month
10400 10400 10500 10500 10630
Living Wage Individual 6460.00
ZAR/Month
6530 6530 6630 6630 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent
42.98 42.9 43 43.1 45.12
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.10
percent
5.3 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.43 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.50
Index Points
109 111 112 114 123
Core Consumer Prices 107.70
Index Points
108 109 112 113 121
Core Inflation Rate 4.30
percent
4.5 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.3
Producer Prices 108.50
Index Points
110 112 112 115 125
Producer Prices Change 6.10
percent
6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 5
Export Prices 151.10
Index Points
151 151 151 152 151
Import Prices 141.70
Index Points
142 142 142 142 142
Food Inflation 3.40
percent
3.6 3.8 4 4 5.2
Inflation Expectations 5.42
Percent
5.45 5.41 5.48 5.47 5.46
CPI Housing Utilities 108.40
Index Points
109 110 112 112 123
CPI Transportation 111.30
Index Points
109 112 111 116 125
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.5
Interbank Rate 7.03
percent
7.03 7.28 7.28 7.28 8.03
Money Supply M0 249862.00
ZAR Million
250521 253837 256981 260256 292498
Money Supply M1 1700175.00
ZAR Million
1684318 1694431 1701126 1700025 1702080
Money Supply M2 2791347.00
ZAR Million
2781647 2797371 2811518 2812816 2822778
Money Supply M3 3446534.00
ZAR Million
3472126 3515492 3557961 3599792 3985193
Banks Balance Sheet 5242892.00
ZAR Million
5288426 5345855 5403860 5461406 6011733
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49850.00
USD Million
49615 49544 49423 49418 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3546828.00
ZAR Million
3584532 3625252 3666742 3707567 4067840
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 812961.00
ZAR Million
815643 813000 817805 817813 977000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -4657.00
ZAR Million
2226 472 757 708 -1700
Exports 107066.00
ZAR Million
105508 98513 103578 103532 99742
Imports 111723.00
ZAR Million
103282 98041 102821 102824 101442
Current Account -163760.00
ZAR Million
-180017 -93000 -185992 -178166 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent
-2.3 -2.3 -2.7 -2.7 -3.2
External Debt 183239.00
USD Million
193318 158000 198531 200261 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1160094.00
1203600 1368527 1211800 1204200 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes
125 125 125 125 125
Terrorism Index 4.09
4.51 4.64 4.91 5.18 5.45
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million
51.17 59.79 62.52 65.26 67.86
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
3 3 3 3 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1961.00
ZAR Billion
2022 2037 2041 2029 2028
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent
54 54 55 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP
-4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.5
Government Budget Value -90538.00
ZAR Million
21498 32327 -2118 18386 1391262
Government Spending 639964.00
ZAR Million
636014 642974 646555 648284 665671
Government Revenues 76471.00
ZAR Million
123123 149769 118756 135819 1512702
Government Debt 81061.00
USD Million
89034 51100 94674 96922 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 167009.00
ZAR Million
101625 117442 120874 117432 121440
Military Expenditure 3110.20
USD Million
3100 3081 3079 3078 3057
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 38.00
Index Points
30 28 30 32 51
Manufacturing PMI 43.40
45 46 47 49 54
Industrial Production 2.90
percent
1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1
Industrial Production Mom 1.60
percent
-0.14 0.2 0.08 0.1 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.10
percent
80.9 81.6 80.96 80.96 81.5
Changes in Inventories -14172.00
ZAR Million
885 3436 -2301 2867 5691
Bankruptcies 147.00
Companies
155 156 155 156 156
Total Vehicle Sales 47964.00
45283 46959 46521 46524 46551
Car Registrations 31447.00
29372 30644 30172 30264 30257
Leading Economic Index 1.10
percent
0.4 0.7 0.3 0.12 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps
8355 8602 8843 9079 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP
4272995 4228378 4262815 4243350 4256417
Mining Production -5.20
percent
-1.41 0.6 -1.53 -1.6 1.2
Steel Production 535.00
Thousand Tonnes
534 533 533 533 533
Coincident Index 90.50
Index Points
92 93.5 94 94.3 94
Competitiveness Index 4.32
Points
4.32 4.32 4.34 4.39 4.37
Competitiveness Rank 61.00
61 61 60 60 63
Composite Pmi 47.20
49 50.5 50.7 50.9 52
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
72 71 86 87 69
Electricity Production 22678.00
Gigawatt-hour
22087 21185 21274 21742 21524
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
44 46 43 43 48
Corruption Rank 71.00
72 59 72 72 57
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 38.00
Index Points
17 15 16 18 16
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent
0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent
1.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.2
Consumer Spending 1926959.00
ZAR Million
1917741 1948167 1956710 1952009 2016937
Disposable Personal Income 2868646.00
ZAR Million
2965725 2800000 3035351 3075238 3140000
Personal Savings -0.20
percent
0.03 -1.2 0 -0.02 0.2
Private Sector Credit 5.41
percent
7.9 5.89 5.63 5.62 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 9.83 8.5
Gasoline Prices 1.13
USD/Liter
1.15 1.09 1.03 0.97 0.77
Households Debt To Gdp 33.10
percent of GDP
32.31 37 31.78 31.52 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent
71.14 78 70.84 70.59 77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 544.47
Index Points
593 521 600 603 530
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 40
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm
16.73 51.95 65.57 38.24 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius
13.17 20.11 21.97 16.22 17.71