South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-0.70	0.5	1	1.1	1.3	2	percent
Unemployment Rate	27.20	27.4	27.4	27.2	27.1	24	percent
Inflation Rate	5.10	5.3	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.3	percent
Interest Rate	6.50	6.5	6.75	6.75	6.75	7.5	percent
Balance of Trade	-4657.00	2226	472	757	708	-1700	ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP	53.10	54	54	55	55	56	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	14.87	14.54	14.73	14.92	15.12	15.93
Government Bond 10Y	9.25 percent	8.96	9.05	9.14	9.24	9.61
Stock Market	56381.30 points	59334	58619	57916	57226	54530

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-0.70 percent	0.5	1	1.1	1.3	2
GDP Annual Growth Rate	0.40 percent	0.6	1	1.2	1.3	2
GDP	349.42 USD Billion	390	390	405	405	420
GDP Constant Prices	3132981.50 ZAR Million	3143072	3192693	3178106	3173710	3305395
Gross National Product	3076397.00 ZAR Million	3112861	3160818	3113314	3116390	3272395
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	615992.50 ZAR Million	612987	628346	624201	624000	650527
GDP per capita	7524.51 USD	7562	7562	7640	7640	7700
GDP per capita PPP	12294.88 USD	12300	12300	12350	12350	12395
GDP From Agriculture	70244.51 ZAR Million	78356	85669	77486	71158	88693
GDP From Construction	108776.67 ZAR Million	109392	109765	109470	110191	113639
GDP From Manufacturing	382563.62 ZAR Million	386582	393412	387400	387537	407300
GDP From Mining	231638.37 ZAR Million	238548	237510	231615	234650	245894
GDP From Public Administration	480320.97 ZAR Million	478467	483493	486726	486565	500560
GDP From Services	643923.33 ZAR Million	637050	645526	648573	652294	668314
GDP From Transport	267778.61 ZAR Million	269535	273299	274438	271260	282946
GDP From Utilities	65588.74 ZAR Million	64884	65864	66035	66441	68189

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	27.20 percent	27.4	27.4	27.2	27.1	24
Employed Persons	9838000.00	9978000	10111000	10511000	10711000	11711000
Unemployed Persons	6100.00 Thousand	6570	6610	6037	6059	6670
Labor Force Participation Rate	59.10 percent	59.67	60.5	59.65	59.18	61
Labour Costs	148.30 Index Points	153	155	156	158	173
Wages	19858.00 ZAR/Month	20500	20500	20200	21612	21600
Wages in Manufacturing	17146.00 ZAR/Month	17600	17900	17100	18211	19000
Population	56.52 Million	58	58	59	59	60
Retirement Age Women	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Wages High Skilled	21300.00 ZAR/Month	21700	21700	22100	20101	23200
Wages Low Skilled	3950.00 ZAR/Month	4108	4108	4157	4073	4157
Youth Unemployment Rate	53.70 percent	52.24	51.44	52.18	53.07	51.51
Living Wage Family	10300.00 ZAR/Month	10400	10400	10500	10500	10630
Living Wage Individual	6460.00 ZAR/Month	6530	6530	6630	6630	6700
Employment Rate	43.10 percent	42.98	42.9	43	43.1	45.12

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	5.10 percent	5.3	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.80 percent	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.43	0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI	108.50 Index Points	109	111	112	114	123
Core Consumer Prices	107.70 Index Points	108	109	112	113	121
Core Inflation Rate	4.30 percent	4.5	4.6	5.2	5.3	5.3
Producer Prices	108.50 Index Points	110	112	112	115	125
Producer Prices Change	6.10 percent	6.4	6.6	6.7	6.7	5
Export Prices	151.10 Index Points	151	151	151	152	151
Import Prices	141.70 Index Points	142	142	142	142	142
Food Inflation	3.40 percent	3.6	3.8	4	4	5.2
Inflation Expectations	5.42 Percent	5.45	5.41	5.48	5.47	5.46
CPI Housing Utilities	108.40 Index Points	109	110	112	112	123
CPI Transportation	111.30 Index Points	109	112	111	116	125

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	6.50 percent	6.5	6.75	6.75	6.75	7.5
Interbank Rate	7.03 percent	7.03	7.28	7.28	7.28	8.03
Money Supply M0	249862.00 ZAR Million	250521	253837	256981	260256	292498
Money Supply M1	1700175.00 ZAR Million	1684318	1694431	1701126	1700025	1702080
Money Supply M2	2791347.00 ZAR Million	2781647	2797371	2811518	2812816	2822778
Money Supply M3	3446534.00 ZAR Million	3472126	3515492	3557961	3599792	3985193
Banks Balance Sheet	5242892.00 ZAR Million	5288426	5345855	5403860	5461406	6011733
Foreign Exchange Reserves	49850.00 USD Million	49615	49544	49423	49418	50645
Loans to Private Sector	3546828.00 ZAR Million	3584532	3625252	3666742	3707567	4067840
Deposit Interest Rate	7.25 percent	7.25	7.5	7.5	7.5	8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet	812961.00 ZAR Million	815643	813000	817805	817813	977000

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-4657.00 ZAR Million	2226	472	757	708	-1700
Exports	107066.00 ZAR Million	105508	98513	103578	103532	99742
Imports	111723.00 ZAR Million	103282	98041	102821	102824	101442
Current Account	-163760.00 ZAR Million	-180017	-93000	-185992	-178166	-159000
Current Account to GDP	-2.50 percent	-2.3	-2.3	-2.7	-2.7	-3.2
External Debt	183239.00 USD Million	193318	158000	198531	200261	166000
Tourist Arrivals	1160094.00	1203600	1368527	1211800	1204200	1518528
Gold Reserves	125.30 Tonnes	125	125	125	125	125
Terrorism Index	4.09	4.51	4.64	4.91	5.18	5.45
Weapons Sales	74.00 USD Million	51.17	59.79	62.52	65.26	67.86
Crude Oil Production	2.00 BBL/D/1K	3	3	3	3	5
Foreign Direct Investment	1961.00 ZAR Billion	2022	2037	2041	2029	2028

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	53.10 percent	54	54	55	55	56
Government Budget	-4.60 percent of GDP	-4.1	-4.1	-3.8	-3.8	-3.5
Government Budget Value	-90538.00 ZAR Million	21498	32327	-2118	18386	1391262
Government Spending	639964.00 ZAR Million	636014	642974	646555	648284	665671
Government Revenues	76471.00 ZAR Million	123123	149769	118756	135819	1512702
Government Debt	81061.00 USD Million	89034	51100	94674	96922	55800
Fiscal Expenditure	167009.00 ZAR Million	101625	117442	120874	117432	121440
Military Expenditure	3110.20 USD Million	3100	3081	3079	3078	3057

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	38.00 Index Points	30	28	30	32	51
Manufacturing PMI	43.40	45	46	47	49	54
Industrial Production	2.90 percent	1	1.2	1.3	1.5	1
Industrial Production Mom	1.60 percent	-0.14	0.2	0.08	0.1	0.5
Capacity Utilization	81.10 percent	80.9	81.6	80.96	80.96	81.5
Changes in Inventories	-14172.00 ZAR Million	885	3436	-2301	2867	5691
Bankruptcies	147.00 Companies	155	156	155	156	156
Total Vehicle Sales	47964.00	45283	46959	46521	46524	46551
Car Registrations	31447.00	29372	30644	30172	30264	30257
Leading Economic Index	1.10 percent	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.12	1
Internet Speed	6736.79 KBps	8355	8602	8843	9079	11179
IP Addresses	4274668.00 IP	4272995	4228378	4262815	4243350	4256417
Mining Production	-5.20 percent	-1.41	0.6	-1.53	-1.6	1.2
Steel Production	535.00 Thousand Tonnes	534	533	533	533	533
Coincident Index	90.50 Index Points	92	93.5	94	94.3	94
Competitiveness Index	4.32 Points	4.32	4.32	4.34	4.39	4.37
Competitiveness Rank	61.00	61	61	60	60	63
Composite Pmi	47.20	49	50.5	50.7	50.9	52
Ease of Doing Business	82.00	72	71	86	87	69
Electricity Production	22678.00 Gigawatt-hour	22087	21185	21274	21742	21524
Corruption Index	43.00 Points	44	46	43	43	48
Corruption Rank	71.00	72	59	72	72	57

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	38.00 Index Points	17	15	16	18	16
Retail Sales MoM	1.30 percent	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.7
Retail Sales YoY	1.30 percent	1.7	1.9	1.6	1.7	2.2
Consumer Spending	1926959.00 ZAR Million	1917741	1948167	1956710	1952009	2016937
Disposable Personal Income	2868646.00 ZAR Million	2965725	2800000	3035351	3075238	3140000
Personal Savings	-0.20 percent	0.03	-1.2	0	-0.02	0.2
Private Sector Credit	5.41 percent	7.9	5.89	5.63	5.62	3.11
Bank Lending Rate	10.00 percent	10	10	10	9.83	8.5
Gasoline Prices	1.13 USD/Liter	1.15	1.09	1.03	0.97	0.77
Households Debt To Gdp	33.10 percent of GDP	32.31	37	31.78	31.52	36
Households Debt To Income	71.90 percent	71.14	78	70.84	70.59	77

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Housing Index	544.47 Index Points	593	521	600	603	530

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	28.00 percent	28	28	28	28	28
Personal Income Tax Rate	45.00 percent	45	45	45	45	40
Sales Tax Rate	15.00 percent	15	15	15	15	15
Social Security Rate	2.00 percent	2	2	2	2	2
Social Security Rate For Companies	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	2
Social Security Rate For Employees	1.00 percent	1	1	1	1	1

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	19.52 mm	16.73	51.95	65.57	38.24	40.13
Temperature	24.17 celsius	13.17	20.11	21.97	16.22	17.71

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