This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 27.50 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 4.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.75 6.75 6.75 7 7.75 percent
Balance of Trade -2950.00 472 -1578 -1307 -1408 -1700 ZAR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.10 54 55 55 55 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 14.05
14.58 14.78 14.99 15.19 16.05
Government Bond 10Y 9.12
percent
9.09 9.19 9.28 9.38 9.77
Stock Market 51810.20
points
55104 54428 53759 53095 50531
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.70
percent
1 1.1 1.3 1.5 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.40
percent
1 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.1
GDP 349.42
USD Billion
390 405 405 405 420
GDP Constant Prices 3132981.50
ZAR Million
3192693 3178106 3173710 3179976 3315155
Gross National Product 3074870.00
ZAR Million
3160818 3113314 3114843 3120993 3282058
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 615992.50
ZAR Million
628346 624201 624000 625232 652448
GDP per capita 7524.51
USD
7562 7640 7640 7640 7700
GDP per capita PPP 12294.88
USD
12300 12350 12350 12350 12395
GDP From Agriculture 70244.51
ZAR Million
85669 77486 71158 71298 88955
GDP From Construction 108776.67
ZAR Million
109765 109470 110191 110408 113975
GDP From Manufacturing 382563.62
ZAR Million
393412 387400 387537 388302 408502
GDP From Mining 231638.37
ZAR Million
237510 231615 234650 235113 246620
GDP From Public Administration 480320.97
ZAR Million
483493 486726 486565 487526 502038
GDP From Services 643923.33
ZAR Million
645526 648573 652294 653582 670287
GDP From Transport 267778.61
ZAR Million
273299 274438 271260 271795 283782
GDP From Utilities 65588.74
ZAR Million
65864 66035 66441 66573 68390
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.50
percent
27.4 27.6 27.8 28 24
Employed Persons 9748000.00
10111000 10511000 10711000 9743480 11711000
Unemployed Persons 6209.39
Thousand
6610 6110 6120 6197 6670
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.50
percent
60.5 59.42 58.96 59.41 61
Labour Costs 150.80
Index Points
155 157 159 160 175
Wages 20176.00
ZAR/Month
20500 20200 21336 21703 21600
Wages in Manufacturing 17674.00
ZAR/Month
17900 17100 18540 18799 19000
Population 57.73
Million
58 59 59 59 60
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 22600.00
ZAR/Month
21700 22100 20734 20815 23200
Wages Low Skilled 4380.00
ZAR/Month
4108 4157 3929 3838 4157
Youth Unemployment Rate 52.80
percent
51.78 52.31 53.17 52.83 51.51
Living Wage Family 11300.00
ZAR/Month
10400 10500 10500 10500 10630
Living Wage Individual 6570.00
ZAR/Month
6530 6630 6630 6630 6700
Employment Rate 43.10
percent
42.9 43 43.1 43.2 45.12
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent
4.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.5 0.7 0.43 0.43 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.90
Index Points
110 112 114 115 122
Core Consumer Prices 108.20
Index Points
109 112 113 114 121
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent
4.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Producer Prices 109.80
Index Points
112 112 115 117 125
Producer Prices Change 6.20
percent
6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 5
Export Prices 151.10
Index Points
151 151 152 151 151
Import Prices 141.70
Index Points
142 142 142 142 142
Food Inflation 3.90
percent
3.8 4 4 3.6 5.2
Inflation Expectations 5.59
Percent
5.58 5.65 5.66 5.63 5.63
CPI Housing Utilities 109.40
Index Points
109 112 112 116 122
CPI Transportation 112.40
Index Points
112 111 117 119 124
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.75 6.75 6.75 7 7.75
Interbank Rate 7.03
percent
7.02 7.02 7.02 7.27 8.02
Money Supply M0 255731.00
ZAR Million
256052 260150 263660 267085 297956
Money Supply M1 1758710.00
ZAR Million
1782076 1801514 1807649 1812185 1814686
Money Supply M2 2866633.00
ZAR Million
2919717 2954874 2973812 2986896 3002502
Money Supply M3 3532734.00
ZAR Million
3590443 3648562 3706077 3762998 4249544
Banks Balance Sheet 5415036.00
ZAR Million
5496247 5567071 5637530 5707593 6320762
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50166.00
USD Million
49544 50092 50087 50086 50645
Loans to Private Sector 3609385.00
ZAR Million
3666974 3721740 3774613 3826108 4240106
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 8.25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 817542.00
ZAR Million
813000 817595 820534 817891 977000
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2950.00
ZAR Million
472 -1578 -1307 -1408 -1700
Exports 113694.50
ZAR Million
98513 108054 108183 108072 99742
Imports 116647.00
ZAR Million
98041 109632 109490 109480 101442
Current Account -163760.00
ZAR Million
-93000 -185992 -178166 -192919 -159000
Current Account to GDP -2.50
percent
-3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.7
External Debt 170811.00
USD Million
158000 167330 168186 167495 166000
Tourist Arrivals 1331118.00
1368527 1290400 1281800 1287500 1518528
Gold Reserves 125.30
Tonnes
125 125 125 125 125
Terrorism Index 4.09
4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09
Weapons Sales 74.00
USD Million
59.79 62.52 65.26 67.99 67.86
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
3 3 3 2 5
Foreign Direct Investment 1863.00
ZAR Billion
1821 1809 1811 1815 1816
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.10
percent
54 55 55 55 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP
-4.1 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4
Government Budget Value 15912.00
ZAR Million
32327 -15395 6878 -15991 1391262
Government Spending 639964.00
ZAR Million
642974 646555 648284 649563 667637
Government Revenues 111002.00
ZAR Million
149769 107357 125851 104706 1512702
Government Debt 70549.00
USD Million
51100 69442 70788 70256 55800
Fiscal Expenditure 95090.00
ZAR Million
117442 122752 118973 120697 121440
Military Expenditure 3110.20
USD Million
3081 3079 3078 3076 3057
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 38.00
Index Points
28 30 32 34 51
Manufacturing PMI 42.40
46 47 49 51 54
Industrial Production 0.10
percent
1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1
Industrial Production Mom -1.00
percent
0.2 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.10
percent
81.6 81.14 81.14 81.14 81.5
Changes in Inventories -14172.00
ZAR Million
3436 -2301 2867 3708 5691
Bankruptcies 159.00
Companies
156 156 156 156 156
Total Vehicle Sales 51866.00
49644 50260 50017 50031 50046
Car Registrations 35050.00
33331 33666 33395 33468 33464
Leading Economic Index -0.50
percent
0.7 0.3 0.09 0.1 1
Internet Speed 6736.79
KBps
8602 8843 9079 9310 11179
IP Addresses 4274668.00
IP
4228378 4262815 4243350 4262056 4256417
Mining Production -1.80
percent
0.6 -2.08 -1.82 -1.84 1.2
Steel Production 572.90
Thousand Tonnes
549 543 542 541 541
Coincident Index 95.80
Index Points
93.5 94 94.3 94.4 94
Competitiveness Index 60.76
Points
61.26 61.26 61.26 61.26 63.76
Competitiveness Rank 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Composite Pmi 46.90
50.5 50.7 50.9 51.1 52
Ease of Doing Business 82.00
71 86 86 86 69
Electricity Production 20844.00
Gigawatt-hour
20555 21327 21535 21105 21181
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
43 43 43 43 43
Corruption Rank 71.00
71 71 71 71 71
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 22.00
Index Points
15 16 18 18 16
Retail Sales MoM -0.60
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 0.70
percent
1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2
Consumer Spending 1926959.00
ZAR Million
1948167 1956710 1952009 1955863 2022893
Disposable Personal Income 2911510.00
ZAR Million
2800000 3034503 3074299 3106438 3140000
Personal Savings 0.40
percent
-1.2 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.2
Private Sector Credit 6.26
percent
5.89 6.24 6.26 6.27 3.11
Bank Lending Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10.25 11
Gasoline Prices 1.17
USD/Liter
1.15 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.01
Households Debt To GDP 33.10
percent of GDP
37 32.08 31.82 31.55 36
Households Debt To Income 71.90
percent
78 70.84 70.59 70.33 77
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 2
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 19.52
mm
51.95 65.57 38.24 38.25 40.13
Temperature 24.17
celsius
20.11 21.97 16.22 19 17.71



South Africa - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook