The South African Reserve Bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.75 percent on January 17th 2019 after hiking it by 25 bps in the previous meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said the decision is accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee noted international developments including oil prices and the exchange rate depreciation as the key drivers of an improved inflation outlook. Interest Rate in South Africa averaged 12.54 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.99 percent in June of 1998 and a record low of 5 percent in July of 2012.

Interest Rate in South Africa is expected to be 6.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in South Africa to stand at 7.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Interest Rate is projected to trend around 7.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Interest Rate
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices.

The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-07-19 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-09-20 01:10 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-11-22 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-01-17 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-03-28 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75%
2019-05-23 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 7%
2019-07-18 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 7%



South Africa Holds Interest Rate Steady at 6.75%

The South African Reserve Bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.75 percent on January 17th 2019 after hiking it by 25 bps in the previous meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said the decision is accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee noted international developments including oil prices and the exchange rate depreciation as the key drivers of an improved inflation outlook.

Excerpts from the statement by Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

The near-term inflation forecast generated by the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) has improved significantly since the previous MPC. Headline inflation is now expected to average 4.6% in 2018 (down from 4.7%) and 4.8% in 2019 (down from 5.5%), before increasing to 5.3% in 2020 (down from 5.4%) and moderating to 4.8% in 2021. Headline CPI inflation is now expected to peak at around 5.6%, in the first quarter of 2020. Core inflation is expected remain unchanged at 4.3% in 2018 and forecast to average 5.0% in 2019 (down from 5.3%), 5.1% in 2020 (down from 5.5%) and 4.8% in 2021. These inflation projections are based on an interest rate path generated by the QPM.

Since the November MPC, the rand has appreciated by 1.4% against the US dollar, by 1.5% against the euro, and by 0.5% on a trade-weighted basis. The implied starting point for the rand is R14.30 against the US dollar, compared with R14.50 at the time of the previous meeting. At these levels, the QPM assesses the rand to be less undervalued.

The domestic growth outlook remains sluggish. Although, GDP increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018, private sector fixed investment remains weak and production in key sectors is volatile. The SARB now expects growth in 2018 to have averaged 0.7% (up from 0.6% in November). The growth forecast for 2019 is 1.7% (down from 1.9%), it is unchanged at 2.0% for 2020 and increases to 2.2% in 2021. At these growth rates, the negative output gap is expected to close in the first quarter of 2021.

The MPC assesses the risks to the growth forecast to be on the downside. Weak business and consumer confidence continue to weigh on fixed capital formation. This could be exacerbated by the possibility of protracted electricity supply constraints. Prudent macroeconomic policies are essential to ensuring that growth is sustainable and the economy is more resilient to shocks. Furthermore, the Committee remains of the view that current challenges facing the economy are primarily structural in nature.The implementation of credible structural policy initiatives that make a marked impact on potential output and employment and lower the cost structure of the economy should be prioritised.

The MPC has taken note of the improved inflation outlook, especially in the near-term. Over the forecast period, inflation is expected to remain within the inflation target range, averaging 5.3% in 2020 and 4.8% in 2021.

The overall risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be moderately on the upside. The risks include administered prices such as electricity and water tariffs, rising domestic food prices in the outer years, changing investor sentiment towards emerging markets, moderation in global growth and volatile international oil prices.

Against this backdrop, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6,75% per year.


SARB | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
1/17/2019 1:34:10 PM



South Africa Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 23.99 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.15 7.15 16.96 5.06 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 258182.00 280228.00 280228.00 415.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1776426.00 1761284.00 1776426.00 1482.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2893833.00 2891387.00 2893833.00 2887.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3540330.00 3498086.00 3540330.00 4796.00 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50832.00 51641.00 51889.00 5316.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5517218.00 5468899.00 5517218.00 114781.00 ZAR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3645618.00 3621864.00 3645618.00 4051.00 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25 7.17 18.86 5.15 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10.00 25.50 5.00 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 769513.00 827165.00 827165.00 543.00 ZAR Million [+]


South Africa Interest Rate

In South Africa, the interest rates decisions are taken by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The official interest rate is the repo rate. This is the rate at which central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically shown on an end-of-period basis. This page provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.75 6.75 23.99 5.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 43.94 Feb/19
Turkey 24.00 Jan/19
Mexico 8.25 Feb/19
Russia 7.75 Feb/19
South Africa 6.75 Jan/19
Brazil 6.50 Feb/19
India 6.25 Feb/19
Indonesia 6.00 Jan/19
China 4.35 Jan/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jan/19
United States 2.50 Jan/19
Singapore 1.90 Jan/19
Canada 1.75 Jan/19
South Korea 1.75 Jan/19
Australia 1.50 Jan/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Feb/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jan/19
France 0.00 Jan/19
Germany 0.00 Jan/19
Italy 0.00 Jan/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jan/19
Spain 0.00 Jan/19
Japan -0.10 Jan/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jan/19


Related

Latest