The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent on September 19th 2019, as widely expected, after trimming it by 25 bps in the prior meeting, despite concerns about economic growth. Policymakers noted that inflation expectations continued to moderate and said that they will continue to focus on anchoring inflation expectations near the mid-point of the inflation target in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. The bank added that future policy decisions will continue to be highly data-dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook, and will seek to look-through temporary price shocks. Interest Rate in South Africa averaged 12.46 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.99 percent in June of 1998 and a record low of 5 percent in July of 2012.

Interest Rate in South Africa is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in South Africa to stand at 6.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Interest Rate
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices.

The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-28 01:10 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-05-23 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2019-07-18 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.75% 6.5% 6.50%
2019-09-19 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.50%
2019-11-21 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.50%



South Africa Holds Key Interest Rate Steady at 6.5%

The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent on September 19th 2019, as widely expected, after trimming it by 25 bps in the prior meeting, despite concerns about economic growth. Policymakers noted that inflation expectations continued to moderate and said that they will continue to focus on anchoring inflation expectations near the mid-point of the inflation target in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. The bank added that future policy decisions will continue to be highly data-dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook, and will seek to look-through temporary price shocks.

Excerpts from the statement by Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

The medium-term inflation outlook is largely unchanged. The inflation forecast generated by the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is for headline inflation to average 4.2% in 2019 (down from 4.4%). The projection for 2020 is unchanged at 5.1%, and for 2021 slightly up to 4.7% (from 4.6%). Headline CPI inflation is expected to peak at 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020 and settle at 4.5% in the last quarter of 2021. The forecast for core inflation is lower at 4.3% in 2019 (down from 4.4%), is unchanged at 4.7% in 2020 and is slightly higher at 4.6% in 2021 (up from 4.5%). Electricity, food and fuel price inflation continue to shape the near and medium-term trajectory of headline inflation.

Since the July MPC, the rand has depreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar, and by 3.0% against the euro. The implied starting point for the rand is R14.88 against the US dollar, compared with R14.40 at the time of the previous meeting. At these levels, the QPM assesses the rand to remain slightly undervalued. While the rand has benefited from improvements in global sentiment, investors remain concerned about domestic growth prospects and fiscal risks.

GDP rebounded to 3.1% in the second quarter, following a decline of 3.1% in the first quarter. The sharp quarterly rebound was caused by stronger output in nearly all sectors, including investment and government consumption spending. However, longer term weakness in most sectors remains a serious concern. Based on recent short term economic indicators for the mining and manufacturing sectors, the third quarter GDP outcome is expected to be muted. Business confidence has declined further. The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index came out at 45.7 points in August (from 46.3), and the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index fell to 21 points (from 28). 

The forecast of GDP growth for 2019 remains unchanged at 0.6%. The forecasts for 2020 and 2021 have decreased to 1.5% (from 1.8%) and 1.8% (from 2.0%), respectively, due to revisions to global growth and domestic potential growth. The MPC assesses the risks to the growth forecast to be balanced in the near term, but remains concerned about medium term growth and weak employment prospects. Escalation in global trade tensions, further domestic supply constraints and/or sustained higher oil prices could generate headwinds to growth. Public sector financing needs remain high, exerting pressure on the currency and pushing local bond yields higher relative to country peers. Implementation of prudent macroeconomic policies and structural reforms that lower costs, and raise investment and potential growth, remains urgent. 

The overall risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be largely balanced. Demand side pressures remain subdued and food, wages and rental prices are expected to increase at moderate rates. Global inflation should remain low. In the absence of shocks, relative exchange rate stability is expected to continue. Some upside risks to the inflation outlook remain, in particular from fuel, electricity and water prices. 

Against this backdrop, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5% per annum. Monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation expectations near the mid-point of the inflation target range in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. In this persistently uncertain environment, future policy decisions will continue to be highly data-dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook, and will seek to look-through temporary price shocks. 


Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
9/19/2019 2:08:54 PM



South Africa Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 271914.00 265773.00 280228.00 415.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1815076.00 1799711.00 1815076.00 1482.00 ZAR Million [+]
Interbank Rate 6.78 6.78 16.96 5.06 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 2977362.00 2965855.00 2977362.00 2887.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3762910.00 3743560.00 3762910.00 4796.00 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 54860.00 49950.00 54860.00 5316.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5895367.00 5800631.00 5895367.00 114781.00 ZAR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3852879.00 3806762.00 3852879.00 4051.00 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.00 7.15 21.60 5.08 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10.00 25.50 5.00 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 911544.00 839535.00 911544.00 543.00 ZAR Million [+]


South Africa Interest Rate

In South Africa, the interest rates decisions are taken by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The official interest rate is the repo rate. This is the rate at which central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically shown on an end-of-period basis. This page provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 70.99 Oct/19
Turkey 16.50 Sep/19
Mexico 7.75 Sep/19
Russia 7.00 Sep/19
South Africa 6.50 Sep/19
Brazil 5.50 Sep/19
Indonesia 5.25 Sep/19
India 5.15 Oct/19
China 4.20 Oct/19
Saudi Arabia 2.50 Sep/19
United States 2.00 Sep/19
Canada 1.75 Sep/19
Singapore 1.72 Sep/19
South Korea 1.50 Sep/19
Australia 0.75 Oct/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Sep/19
Euro Area 0.00 Sep/19
France 0.00 Sep/19
Germany 0.00 Sep/19
Italy 0.00 Sep/19
Netherlands 0.00 Sep/19
Spain 0.00 Sep/19
Japan -0.10 Sep/19
Switzerland -0.75 Sep/19


Related

Latest