The South African Reserve Bank's composite leading business cycle indicator rose 0.7 percent month-over-month in July 2019, following a 0.8 percent fall in the prior month, as increases in five of the ten available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining five. The largest positive contributions came from job advertisements and higher export commodity prices. However, main negative contributions came from the number of new passenger vehicles sold and a deterioration in the BER’s Business Confidence Index. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.19 percent from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.70 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -3.70 percent in November of 2008.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be -0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in South Africa to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

South Africa Leading Economic Index
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South Africa Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 21.00 28.00 92.00 12.00 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 41.60 45.70 60.87 35.09 [+]
Industrial Production -1.80 -0.70 18.50 -23.20 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.30 0.80 9.10 -8.70 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.70 81.70 86.20 76.90 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 25999.00 -13686.00 66699.00 -59774.00 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 176.00 183.00 511.00 63.00 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 49191.00 45537.00 65689.00 18482.00 [+]
Car Registrations 33139.00 29003.00 43659.00 5155.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.70 -0.80 4.70 -3.70 percent [+]
Internet Speed 6736.79 6595.61 6736.79 685.91 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 4274668.00 3727821.00 6727656.00 520279.00 IP [+]
Mining Production -3.20 1.40 23.20 -17.40 percent [+]
Steel Production 434.00 464.40 885.00 182.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Coincident Index 92.40 89.10 141.17 88.12 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 62.44 60.76 62.44 4.31 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 60.00 67.00 67.00 35.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 49.20 49.70 52.70 46.40 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 82.00 82.00 82.00 32.00 [+]
Electricity Production 21481.00 22530.00 23801.00 10439.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 43.00 43.00 56.80 41.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 73.00 71.00 73.00 23.00 [+]
Gold Production -5.40 -13.40 75.70 -47.10 percent [+]


South Africa Leading Economic Index

In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Economic Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.70 -0.80 4.70 -3.70 1960 - 2019 percent Monthly
2015=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 0.90 Aug/19
Australia -0.09 Sep/19
Brazil 0.07 Aug/19
Canada 0.00 Jul/19
Japan 91.70 Aug/19
Mexico 0.30 Jul/19
Russia 2.00 Sep/19
Singapore 108.10 Jun/19
South Africa 0.70 Jul/19
South Korea 114.90 Aug/19
Turkey 3.88 Aug/19
United Kingdom 0.30 Aug/19
United States 128.88 Aug/19


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