The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in January 2020, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent contraction in December 2019. This was the second straight decline in the indicator, as six of the ten available components decreased. The largest negative contributions resulted from a drop in the twelve-month percentage change in job advertisement space and a decrease in BER's Business Confidence Index. Year-on-year, the leading business cycle indicator fell 0.7 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.9 percent decline in December.

Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.19 percent from 1960 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of -3.60 percent in November of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2020. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in South Africa to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 0.30 percent in 2021 and 0.40 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.30 -0.50 4.60 -3.60 1960 - 2020 percent Monthly
SA


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-03-24 07:00 AM Jan -0.3% -0.5% -0.5%
2020-04-21 07:00 AM Feb -0.3% -0.7%
2020-05-26 07:00 AM Mar -0.4%
2020-06-23 07:00 AM Apr
2020-07-21 07:00 AM May

South Africa Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 18.00 26.00 92.00 12.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.10 44.30 57.89 38.38 points [+]
Industrial Production -2.00 -5.90 18.50 -23.20 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.50 -3.00 9.10 -8.70 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.90 80.40 86.20 76.90 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -40330.00 -9526.00 66699.00 -59774.00 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 164.00 125.00 511.00 63.00 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 33550.00 43490.00 65689.00 18482.00 [+]
Car Registrations 22200.00 29644.00 43659.00 5155.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.30 -0.50 4.60 -3.60 percent [+]
Internet Speed 6736.79 6595.61 6736.79 685.91 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 4274668.00 3727821.00 6727656.00 520279.00 IP [+]
Steel Production 370.00 397.80 885.00 182.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 7.50 0.10 23.20 -17.40 percent [+]
Coincident Index 92.70 92.20 141.17 88.12 points [+]
Competitiveness Index 62.44 60.76 62.44 4.31 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 60.00 67.00 67.00 35.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 44.50 48.40 52.70 44.50 points [+]
Corruption Index 44.00 43.00 56.80 41.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 70.00 73.00 73.00 23.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 82.00 84.00 32.00 [+]
Electricity Production 19414.00 20437.00 23801.00 10439.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Gold Production 4.90 24.10 75.70 -47.10 percent [+]


South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.