Retail sales in South Africa went up 1.1 percent year-on-year in February 2019, easing from a 1.2 percent increase in January and above market expectations of a 0.6 percent gain. Sales rose at a slower pace for general dealers (1.2% vs 1.4% in January); pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics & toiletries (1.2% vs 6.3%). In addition, declines were seen in sales of food, beverages & tobacco (-1.9% vs -1.8%); hardware, paint & glass (-2% vs -3.7%) and for all other retailers (-1.5% vs 2.9%). In contrast, they grew sharply for textiles, clothing, footwear & leather goods (4.4% vs 0.4%) and household furniture, appliances and equipment (7.4% vs 1.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade rose 0.5 percent, after an upwardly revised 1.6 percent rise in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.42 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.