Retail sales in South Africa increased 2.4% year-on-year in April 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in March and beating market expectations of a 1.2 percent rise. It was the strongest gain in retail trade since November, boosted by sales of pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics & toiletries (5.3% vs -4.3% in March); textiles, clothing, footwear & leather goods (6.4% vs -1.6%); household furniture, appliances & equipment (4.6% vs -0.3%) and all other retailers (2.3% vs 0.7%). Meantime, sales of food, beverages & tobacco showed no growth (vs -2.4% in March) while those of hardware, paint and glass fell (-2.3% vs -0.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales advanced 0.8 percent, recovering from a 0.7 percent decrease in the previous month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.39 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.