South Africa's retail trade increased 2.0 percent year-on-year in July 2019, easing from a 2.4 percent rise in the prior month and missing market expectations of a 2.6 percent gain. Sales advanced at a slower pace for food, beverages & tobacco (0.8 percent vs 2.2 percent in June); textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (3.2 percent vs 4.2 percent); household furniture, appliances & equipment (3.2 percent vs 5.6 percent) and general dealers (0.1 percent vs 1.0 percent). Also, lower sales were recorded for hardware, paint & glass (-1.7 percent vs -1.6 percent). Meanwhile, those of pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics & toiletries (3.7 percent vs 1.9 percent) advanced further. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales went up 0.2 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent increase in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.41 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.