Spain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 16.74 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.7 13.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2 2 2.3 2.4 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3050045.00 -2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1500000 -1800000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 98.30 95.5 95.5 92.6 92.6 89.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 9696.24
points
9384 9069 8764 8470 7387
Government Bond 10Y 1.27
percent
1.43 1.59 1.75 1.94 2.9
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.2
GDP 1311.32
USD Billion
1420 1420 1510 1510 1550
GDP Constant Prices 298023.00
EUR Million
296114 303612 305772 296196 317739
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 61680.00
EUR Million
60988 62809 63284 60499 65731
GDP per capita 32405.75
USD
32900 32900 33600 33600 34100
GDP per capita PPP 34272.36
USD
34800 34800 35400 35400 35900
GDP From Agriculture 8088.00
EUR Million
7609 8123 8298 7553 8501
GDP From Construction 16045.00
EUR Million
15513 16044 16462 15347 16791
GDP From Manufacturing 38767.00
EUR Million
38543 39911 39775 38678 41768
GDP From Public Administration 49103.00
EUR Million
49075 50131 50380 49004 52463
GDP From Services 197451.00
EUR Million
197166 201050 202585 196751 210404
GDP From Transport 63169.00
EUR Million
63432 64453 64811 63777 67452
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.74
percent
15.4 15.1 14.9 14.7 13.2
Employed Persons 18874.20
Thousand
19410 19650 19700 19810 20280
Unemployed Persons 3285.09
Thousand
3000 2890 2750 2670 2500
Unemployment Change -89.97
Thousand
29.5 -50.8 -38.6 -88.6 -32.1
Part Time Employment 2814.30
Thousand
2860 2930 2890 2860 2880
Full Time Employment 16059.90
Thousand
16550 16720 16810 16950 17400
Long Term Unemployment Rate 7.10
percent
6 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.80
percent
34.3 33.8 33.4 32.9 27
Productivity 103.70
Index Points
113 112 105 108 116
Labour Costs 105.10
Index Points
97.5 106 99.8 104 112
Job Vacancies 61.50
Thousand
48.6 42.5 58.2 60.1 51
Wages 1844.24
EUR/Month
1820 2050 1845 1995 2100
Minimum Wages 858.55
EUR/Month
859 859 880 880 920
Population 46.66
Million
46.66 46.66 46.89 46.89 47.21
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.67 65.67 65.83
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.67 65.67 65.83
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.46
percent
60.5 61 61.2 61.5 63
Living Wage Family 1100.00
EUR/Month
1150 1150 1200 1200 1270
Living Wage Individual 810.00
EUR/Month
950 950 1080 1080 1150
Wages High Skilled 1980.00
EUR/Month
2220 2220 2310 2310 2390
Wages Low Skilled 927.00
EUR/Month
900 900 950 950 990
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
Employment Rate 62.07
percent
63.4 63.6 63.7 63.8 65
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2 2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.57
Index Points
104 105 105 107 110
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.40
Index Points
104 105 105 107 110
Core Consumer Prices 102.61
Index Points
102 103 103 104 107
Core Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.9
Producer Prices 103.40
Index Points
104 105 104 106 110
Producer Prices Change 2.90
percent
2.6 2.2 2.1 2 2.4
Export Prices 110.00
Index Points
112 112 114 115 118
Import Prices 108.20
Index Points
107 108 108 109 114
Food Inflation 2.50
percent
2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 105.78
Index Points
105 108 106 108 113
CPI Transportation 109.15
Index Points
106 108 108 112 113
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.38
percent
-0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 0.37
Money Supply M1 936475.00
EUR Million
925000 932000 938000 948000 1021000
Money Supply M2 1150446.00
EUR Million
1330000 1410000 1470000 1540000 1980000
Money Supply M3 1209701.00
EUR Million
1440000 1510000 1590000 1650000 2120000
Banks Balance Sheet 2671.80
EUR Billion
2890 2940 3200 3280 4060
Foreign Exchange Reserves 59227.24
EUR Million
59616 59946 60138 60255 60435
Loans to Private Sector 452731.00
EUR Million
489000 495000 501000 507000 545000
Loan Growth 1.00
percent
1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.2
Private Debt to GDP 200.10
percent
191 191 185 185 179
Central Bank Balance Sheet 721980.00
EUR Million
718000 725000 729000 732000 745000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3050045.00
EUR Thousand
-2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1500000 -1800000
Exports 23858353.66
EUR Thousand
23800000 22500000 27900000 25100000 23700000
Imports 26908400.00
EUR Thousand
26200000 24600000 29300000 26600000 25500000
Current Account -1516.00
EUR Million
2500 2800 1150 2500 3640
Current Account to GDP 1.90
percent
1.1 1.1 1 1 0.8
Terms of Trade 101.70
Index Points
105 104 106 106 104
Foreign Direct Investment 1434.00
EUR Million
-1600 2450 2200 2900 2320
Capital Flows 1823.00
EUR Million
2200 7500 -1900 2100 4400
Remittances 3308.00
EUR Million
2420 3620 2750 3240 3890
Tourist Arrivals 8084.17
Thousand
8950 4120 5420 9150 6150
Gold Reserves 281.60
Tonnes
282 282 282 282 282
Tourism Revenues 3850.00
EUR Million
6980 3220 3820 6720 4050
Terrorism Index 1.70
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Weapons Sales 814.00
USD Million
909 868 826 785 794
External Debt 1957442000.00
EUR Thousand
1961960000 1975330000 1986403000 1991502000 2031138000
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
2 2 2 2 2
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 98.30
percent
95.5 95.5 92.6 92.6 89.4
Government Budget -3.10
percent of GDP
-2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1
Government Budget Value -14493.00
EUR Million
-18200 -28200 -7900 -18400 -26400
Government Spending 54438.00
EUR Million
54652 55480 55853 54732 58062
Government Spending to GDP 41.00
percent
41.2 41.2 40.9 40.9 41
Government Debt 1160613351.00
EUR Thousand
1167000000 1174000000 1183000000 1189000000 1231000000
Military Expenditure 15686.00
USD Million
14821 14689 14856 15022 14774
Asylum Applications 2845.00
persons
2120 1620 1400 2050 1090
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 0.20
Index Points
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 -4
Services PMI 55.40
Index Points
55.2 54.8 54.4 54 53.4
Manufacturing PMI 53.40
55 55.2 54.6 54.4 53.2
Industrial Production 1.60
percent
2.9 2.5 3.2 3 2
Industrial Production Mom 0.90
percent
-0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.4
Capacity Utilization 80.20
percent
80.5 80.5 80.6 80.7 81.2
Changes in Inventories 1814.00
EUR Million
1406 1357 1314 1257 1133
Bankruptcies 1457.00
Companies
890 1210 1120 1250 850
Total Vehicle Sales 142376.00
85900 105600 129800 137800 119500
Car Production 2492.00
Hundred Units
2250 1500 2700 2400 1900
Car Registrations 119214.00
118500 121400 107200 115400 149800
Internet Speed 15487.07
KBps
17812 18253 18286 18755 20317
IP Addresses 14575619.00
IP
14347767 14569036 14779791 14691201 15004114
Mining Production -8.10
percent
5.1 3.2 2.2 2 1.5
Steel Production 1337.00
Thousand Tonnes
1320 1020 1450 1340 1260
Competitiveness Index 4.70
Points
4.7 4.7 4.76 4.76 4.82
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
34 34 33 34 32
Factory Orders 6.70
percent
4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.2
Ease of Doing Business 28.00
27 27 26 26 25
Electricity Production 22049.00
Gigawatt-hour
21900 25400 22800 24100 25600
Corruption Index 57.00
Points
58 58 59 59 60
Corruption Rank 42.00
41 41 40 40 39
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.00
Index Points
101 100 101 102 104
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.3
Retail Sales YoY -0.30
percent
2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.2
Consumer Spending 169149.00
EUR Million
167225 171624 173547 167958 179609
Disposable Personal Income 198065.00
EUR Million
196000 227000 197000 244000 241000
Personal Savings -4.18
percent
-1 15 -1.7 15 12
Consumer Credit 646057957.00
EUR Thousand
661000000 665000000 671000000 677000000 727000000
Private Sector Credit 1191313.00
EUR Million
1290000 1330000 1360000 1410000 1650000
Bank Lending Rate 1.58
percent
1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 2.33
Households Debt To Gdp 61.30
percent of GDP
61.5 61.5 60.8 60.8 60
Households Debt To Income 102.65
percent
95.1 95.1 91.5 91.5 85
Gasoline Prices 1.54
USD/Liter
1.46 1.38 1.3 1.23 0.69
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 17.10
percent
7.4 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.1
Housing Index 1566.60
EUR/SQ. METRE
1605 1645 1678 1695 1832
Mortgage Approvals 28724.00
Units
30200 21500 29100 30200 25100
New Home Sales 8.30
Thousand
7.51 6.12 8.15 8.45 11.51
Existing Home Sales 38.87
Thousand
32.56 28.15 36.22 38.78 34.65
Housing Starts 0.89
Thousand
0.51 0.75 0.99 1.09 1.64
Home Ownership Rate 77.80
percent
77.2 77.2 76.9 76.9 76.4
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 43 45
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 36.25
percent
36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90
percent
29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35
percent
6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 8.43
celsius
21.5 9.99 7.54 17.32 13.95
Precipitation 17.30
mm
28.18 67.31 56.73 49.39 51.68