Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 5.90 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 6 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -795.11 -760 -740 -920 -995 -650 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 77.60 76 76 75 75 72 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 168.60
 161 161 161 161 161
Stock Market 5922.18
points		 6016 5988 5960 5932 5821
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70
percent		 3.8 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.2
GDP 87.17
USD Billion		 90.6 90.6 94.8 94.8 96.1
GDP Constant Prices 2264445.00
LKR Million		 2407589 2742700 2323930 2379932 3023816
Gross National Product 12928685.00
LKR Million		 11724835 13471690 13510476 12093034 14852484
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3502123.90
LKR Million		 3325244 3649213 3659719 3429668 4023243
GDP per capita 3842.30
USD		 4000 4000 4230 4230 4350
GDP per capita PPP 11669.10
USD		 11907 11907 12150 12150 12303
GDP From Agriculture 160674.00
LKR Million		 162508 185752 161877 168868 204791
GDP From Construction 161305.00
LKR Million		 154837 198371 171561 169532 218703
GDP From Manufacturing 312734.00
LKR Million		 390498 360727 458265 328683 397700
GDP From Mining 55848.00
LKR Million		 58137 70999 61835 58696 78276
Gdp From Public Administration 100979.00
LKR Million		 110314 129397 100269 106129 142659
GDP From Services 1370120.00
LKR Million		 1387262 1464386 1326345 1439996 1614480
GDP From Transport 197160.00
LKR Million		 280405 316510 232754 207215 348951
GDP From Utilities 24361.00
LKR Million		 25290 24838 26096 25603 27384
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent		 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6
Employed Persons 7961358.00
 7900000 8100000 8150000 8170000 8400000
Unemployed Persons 372135.00
 377000 365000 341000 345000 349000
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.00
percent		 52.5 53.1 53.4 53.7 51.9
Population 21.44
Million		 21.6 21.6 21.9 21.9 22.2
Wages High Skilled 60700.00
LKR/Month		 61500 61500 61900 61900 62500
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00
LKR/Month		 25200 25200 25800 25800 26200
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.80
percent		 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.5 20.9
Employment Rate 95.50
percent		 95.8 95.6 95.9 95.2 95.9
Living Wage Family 42700.00
LKR/Month		 42700 42700 42700 42700 42900
Living Wage Individual 25100.00
LKR/Month		 25100 25100 25100 25100 25300
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month		 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.90
percent		 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.80
Index Points		 127 129 127 131 143
Core Consumer Prices 127.50
Index Points		 128 129 130 131 140
Core Inflation Rate 3.70
percent		 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.1
GDP Deflator 142.70
Index Points		 143 143 144 144 145
Producer Prices 134.90
Index Points		 133 139 141 145 152
Export Prices 152.43
Index Points		 125 151 134 143 148
Import Prices 137.63
Index Points		 138 139 140 141 151
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.5 1.2
Producer Prices Change 7.60
percent		 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.2 3.8
CPI Transportation 109.60
Index Points		 104 103 103 113 115
Food Inflation 7.50
percent		 8.1 8.6 6.4 6.1 6.9
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent		 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5
Interbank Rate 10.01
percent		 10.01 10.01 10.01 10.01 10.26
Money Supply M0 611450.00
LKR Million		 640000 646000 651000 655000 672000
Money Supply M1 804510.00
LKR Million		 810000 819000 823000 831000 855000
Money Supply M2 6120850.00
LKR Million		 6125000 6131000 6190000 6210000 6400000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1466562.60
LKR Million		 1490000 1520000 1540000 1555000 1720000
Banks Balance Sheet 8302410.60
LKR Million		 8700000 8955000 9200000 9500000 10500000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.10
percent		 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.35
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1850996.80
LKR Million		 1870000 1890000 2100000 2180000 2350000
Lending Rate 8.50
percent		 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.75
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -795.11
USD Million		 -760 -740 -920 -995 -650
Exports 1024.37
USD Million		 940 1000 950 890 910
Imports 1819.48
USD Million		 1700 1830 1870 1885 1730
Current Account -709.00
USD Million		 -910 -1040 -930 -895 -810
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent		 -2.7 -2.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5
External Debt 52090.15
USD Million		 53000 54000 56100 57300 62000
Terms of Trade 110.75
Index Points		 90.65 109 95.58 102 98.27
Tourist Arrivals 200359.00
 212000 232000 186000 186400 244000
Gold Reserves 22.30
Tonnes		 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.4
Terrorism Index 2.91
 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1
Tourism Revenues 240.10
USD Million		 370 320 335 352 370
Remittances 580.40
USD Million		 610 680 710 670 750
Foreign Direct Investment 387.00
USD Million		 310 750 390 840 820
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 77.60
percent		 76 76 75 75 72
Government Budget -5.50
percent of GDP		 -5.6 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -6.3
Government Budget Value -733494.00
LKR Million		 -630000 -630000 -690000 -690000 -730000
Government Spending 1130674.00
LKR Million		 1034394 1178162 1181554 1066877 1298919
Fiscal Expenditure 2573056.00
LKR Million		 2600000 2600000 2710000 2710000 2840000
Government Debt 10654098.00
LKR Million		 10700000 10880000 10900000 11000000 12200000
Government Revenues 1839562.00
LKR Million		 1970000 1970000 2020000 2020000 2110000
Military Expenditure 1842.50
USD Million		 1870 1870 1883 1883 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 0.40
percent		 1.6 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.1
Capacity Utilization 81.00
percent		 77 77 80 80 81
Changes in Inventories 1217425.70
LKR Million		 1100000 1100000 1170000 1170000 1220000
Car Registrations 8129.00
 6785 6778 6560 6480 6690
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps		 8590 8800 8990 10500 12000
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP		 92400 91700 89200 88700 92000
Services Pmi 57.00
 56.7 57.9 56.8 56.9 56.9
Business Confidence 78.00
Index Points		 75 81 83 81 88
Corruption Index 38.00
Points		 36 36 38 38 35
Corruption Rank 91.00
 90 90 93 93 95
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points		 4.08 4.08 4.1 4.1 4.06
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
 85 85 79 79 74
Ease of Doing Business 111.00
 108 108 103 103 105
Manufacturing Pmi 58.20
 56.3 55.9 56.2 56.8 58.9
Manufacturing Production 0.40
percent		 -0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 8262817.00
LKR Million		 8155861 8609855 8634644 8411982 9492331
Personal Savings 15.20
percent		 24.1 24.1 23.6 23.6 23.8
Private Sector Credit 5183351.00
LKR Million		 5200000 5400000 5550000 5620000 5800000
Bank Lending Rate 11.52
percent		 11.52 11.52 11.52 11.52 11.77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 797.30
Index Points		 800 815 827 837 873
Building Permits 2824.00
 2900 2690 2830 2700 2940
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent		 28 28 27 27 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 17 17 18
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent		 8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm		 91.95 265 95.42 143 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius		 27.48 26.01 26.46 27.57 27.61