Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 5.90 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 6 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -795.11 -760 -740 -920 -995 -650 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 77.60 76 76 75 75 72 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 168.60
161 161 161 161 161
Stock Market 5922.18
points
6016 5988 5960 5932 5821
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70
percent
3.8 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.2
GDP 87.17
USD Billion
90.6 90.6 94.8 94.8 96.1
GDP Constant Prices 2264445.00
LKR Million
2407589 2742700 2323930 2379932 3023816
Gross National Product 12928685.00
LKR Million
11724835 13471690 13510476 12093034 14852484
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3502123.90
LKR Million
3325244 3649213 3659719 3429668 4023243
GDP per capita 3842.30
USD
4000 4000 4230 4230 4350
GDP per capita PPP 11669.10
USD
11907 11907 12150 12150 12303
GDP From Agriculture 160674.00
LKR Million
162508 185752 161877 168868 204791
GDP From Construction 161305.00
LKR Million
154837 198371 171561 169532 218703
GDP From Manufacturing 312734.00
LKR Million
390498 360727 458265 328683 397700
GDP From Mining 55848.00
LKR Million
58137 70999 61835 58696 78276
Gdp From Public Administration 100979.00
LKR Million
110314 129397 100269 106129 142659
GDP From Services 1370120.00
LKR Million
1387262 1464386 1326345 1439996 1614480
GDP From Transport 197160.00
LKR Million
280405 316510 232754 207215 348951
GDP From Utilities 24361.00
LKR Million
25290 24838 26096 25603 27384
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent
4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6
Employed Persons 7961358.00
7900000 8100000 8150000 8170000 8400000
Unemployed Persons 372135.00
377000 365000 341000 345000 349000
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.00
percent
52.5 53.1 53.4 53.7 51.9
Population 21.44
Million
21.6 21.6 21.9 21.9 22.2
Wages High Skilled 60700.00
LKR/Month
61500 61500 61900 61900 62500
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00
LKR/Month
25200 25200 25800 25800 26200
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.80
percent
21.8 21.8 21.5 21.5 20.9
Employment Rate 95.50
percent
95.8 95.6 95.9 95.2 95.9
Living Wage Family 42700.00
LKR/Month
42700 42700 42700 42700 42900
Living Wage Individual 25100.00
LKR/Month
25100 25100 25100 25100 25300
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month
10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.90
percent
6.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.80
Index Points
127 129 127 131 143
Core Consumer Prices 127.50
Index Points
128 129 130 131 140
Core Inflation Rate 3.70
percent
3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.1
GDP Deflator 142.70
Index Points
143 143 144 144 145
Producer Prices 134.90
Index Points
133 139 141 145 152
Export Prices 152.43
Index Points
125 151 134 143 148
Import Prices 137.63
Index Points
138 139 140 141 151
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
-0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.5 1.2
Producer Prices Change 7.60
percent
5.3 5.7 5.9 6.2 3.8
CPI Transportation 109.60
Index Points
104 103 103 113 115
Food Inflation 7.50
percent
8.1 8.6 6.4 6.1 6.9
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5
Interbank Rate 10.01
percent
10.01 10.01 10.01 10.01 10.26
Money Supply M0 611450.00
LKR Million
640000 646000 651000 655000 672000
Money Supply M1 804510.00
LKR Million
810000 819000 823000 831000 855000
Money Supply M2 6120850.00
LKR Million
6125000 6131000 6190000 6210000 6400000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1466562.60
LKR Million
1490000 1520000 1540000 1555000 1720000
Banks Balance Sheet 8302410.60
LKR Million
8700000 8955000 9200000 9500000 10500000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.10
percent
7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.35
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1850996.80
LKR Million
1870000 1890000 2100000 2180000 2350000
Lending Rate 8.50
percent
8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.75
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -795.11
USD Million
-760 -740 -920 -995 -650
Exports 1024.37
USD Million
940 1000 950 890 910
Imports 1819.48
USD Million
1700 1830 1870 1885 1730
Current Account -709.00
USD Million
-910 -1040 -930 -895 -810
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent
-2.7 -2.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5
External Debt 52090.15
USD Million
53000 54000 56100 57300 62000
Terms of Trade 110.75
Index Points
90.65 109 95.58 102 98.27
Tourist Arrivals 200359.00
212000 232000 186000 186400 244000
Gold Reserves 22.30
Tonnes
22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.4
Terrorism Index 2.91
2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1
Tourism Revenues 240.10
USD Million
370 320 335 352 370
Remittances 580.40
USD Million
610 680 710 670 750
Foreign Direct Investment 387.00
USD Million
310 750 390 840 820
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 77.60
percent
76 76 75 75 72
Government Budget -5.50
percent of GDP
-5.6 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -6.3
Government Budget Value -733494.00
LKR Million
-630000 -630000 -690000 -690000 -730000
Government Spending 1130674.00
LKR Million
1034394 1178162 1181554 1066877 1298919
Fiscal Expenditure 2573056.00
LKR Million
2600000 2600000 2710000 2710000 2840000
Government Debt 10654098.00
LKR Million
10700000 10880000 10900000 11000000 12200000
Government Revenues 1839562.00
LKR Million
1970000 1970000 2020000 2020000 2110000
Military Expenditure 1842.50
USD Million
1870 1870 1883 1883 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 0.40
percent
1.6 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.1
Capacity Utilization 81.00
percent
77 77 80 80 81
Changes in Inventories 1217425.70
LKR Million
1100000 1100000 1170000 1170000 1220000
Car Registrations 8129.00
6785 6778 6560 6480 6690
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps
8590 8800 8990 10500 12000
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP
92400 91700 89200 88700 92000
Services Pmi 57.00
56.7 57.9 56.8 56.9 56.9
Business Confidence 78.00
Index Points
75 81 83 81 88
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
36 36 38 38 35
Corruption Rank 91.00
90 90 93 93 95
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.08 4.08 4.1 4.1 4.06
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
85 85 79 79 74
Ease of Doing Business 111.00
108 108 103 103 105
Manufacturing Pmi 58.20
56.3 55.9 56.2 56.8 58.9
Manufacturing Production 0.40
percent
-0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 8262817.00
LKR Million
8155861 8609855 8634644 8411982 9492331
Personal Savings 15.20
percent
24.1 24.1 23.6 23.6 23.8
Private Sector Credit 5183351.00
LKR Million
5200000 5400000 5550000 5620000 5800000
Bank Lending Rate 11.52
percent
11.52 11.52 11.52 11.52 11.77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 797.30
Index Points
800 815 827 837 873
Building Permits 2824.00
2900 2690 2830 2700 2940
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 27 27 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 17 17 18
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm
91.95 265 95.42 143 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius
27.48 26.01 26.46 27.57 27.61