This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 6 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -849.80 -830 -920 -995 -930 -820 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 77.60 76 75 75 75 72 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 175.50
 169 170 170 171 172
Stock Market 5979.91
points		 5788 5759 5731 5702 5588
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70
percent		 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.2
GDP 87.17
USD Billion		 90.6 94.8 94.8 94.8 96.1
GDP Constant Prices 2264445.00
LKR Million		 2734804 2328377 2379932 2386725 3006479
Gross National Product 12928685.00
LKR Million		 13432904 13536333 13588048 13626834 14767328
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3502123.90
LKR Million		 3638707 3666724 3680732 3691239 4000176
GDP per capita 3842.30
USD		 4000 4230 4230 4230 4350
GDP per capita PPP 11669.10
USD		 11907 12150 12150 12150 12303
GDP From Agriculture 160674.00
LKR Million		 185217 162187 168868 169350 203617
GDP From Construction 161305.00
LKR Million		 197800 171889 169532 170015 217449
GDP From Manufacturing 312734.00
LKR Million		 359688 459142 328683 329622 395420
GDP From Mining 55848.00
LKR Million		 70794 61953 58696 58864 77827
GDP From Public Administration 100979.00
LKR Million		 129024 100461 106129 106432 141841
GDP From Services 1370120.00
LKR Million		 1460170 1328884 1439996 1444106 1605223
GDP From Transport 197160.00
LKR Million		 315598 233199 207215 207807 346950
GDP From Utilities 24361.00
LKR Million		 24767 26146 25603 25676 27227
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent		 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.6
Employed Persons 7970154.00
 8100000 8150000 8170000 8210000 8400000
Unemployed Persons 372135.00
 365000 341000 345000 348000 349000
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.10
percent		 53.1 53.4 53.7 54.2 51.9
Population 21.44
Million		 21.6 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.2
Wages High Skilled 57500.00
LKR/Month		 61500 61900 61900 61900 62500
Wages Low Skilled 21500.00
LKR/Month		 25200 25800 25800 25800 26200
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.80
percent		 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.5 20.9
Employment Rate 95.40
percent		 95.6 95.9 95.2 95.4 95.9
Living Wage Family 52100.00
LKR/Month		 52100 42700 52100 52100 42900
Living Wage Individual 29100.00
LKR/Month		 29100 29100 29100 29100 25300
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month		 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent		 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 124.60
Index Points		 128 127 131 131 142
Core Consumer Prices 128.10
Index Points		 129 130 131 133 140
Core Inflation Rate 3.80
percent		 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 4.1
GDP Deflator 142.70
Index Points		 143 144 144 144 145
Producer Prices 133.10
Index Points		 139 141 145 140 152
Export Prices 145.52
Index Points		 151 134 143 124 148
Import Prices 141.72
Index Points		 139 140 141 141 151
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent		 -0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2
Producer Prices Change 6.60
percent		 5.7 5.9 6.2 5.4 3.8
CPI Transportation 112.50
Index Points		 103 103 113 115 114
Food Inflation -2.30
percent		 8.6 6.4 6.1 5.9 6.9
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent		 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5
Interbank Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10.25
Money Supply M0 619580.00
LKR Million		 646000 651000 655000 659000 672000
Money Supply M1 791550.00
LKR Million		 819000 823000 831000 838000 855000
Money Supply M2 6243720.00
LKR Million		 6131000 6190000 6210000 6230000 6400000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1386166.90
LKR Million		 1520000 1540000 1555000 1600000 1720000
Banks Balance Sheet 8520201.00
LKR Million		 8955000 9200000 9500000 9750000 10500000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.10
percent		 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.35
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1766798.00
LKR Million		 1890000 2100000 2180000 2220000 2350000
Lending Rate 8.50
percent		 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.75
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -849.80
USD Million		 -830 -920 -995 -930 -820
Exports 1037.36
USD Million		 1000 950 890 870 910
Imports 1887.12
USD Million		 1830 1870 1885 1800 1730
Current Account -1127.00
USD Million		 -1040 -930 -895 -870 -810
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent		 -3.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5
External Debt 53487.28
USD Million		 54000 56100 57300 58000 62000
Terms of Trade 102.68
Index Points		 109 95.58 102 88.01 98.27
Tourist Arrivals 153123.00
 232000 175200 180300 178500 244000
Gold Reserves 19.90
Tonnes		 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.4
Terrorism Index 2.91
 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.1
Tourism Revenues 371.60
USD Million		 320 335 352 378 370
Remittances 534.20
USD Million		 680 710 670 650 750
Foreign Direct Investment 719.00
USD Million		 750 390 840 410 820
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 77.60
percent		 76 75 75 75 72
Government Budget -5.50
percent of GDP		 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -6.3
Government Budget Value -733494.00
LKR Million		 -630000 -690000 -690000 -690000 -730000
Government Spending 1130674.00
LKR Million		 1174770 1183816 1188338 1191730 1291472
Fiscal Expenditure 2573056.00
LKR Million		 2600000 2710000 2710000 2710000 2840000
Government Debt 10994448.00
LKR Million		 10880000 10900000 11000000 11300000 12200000
Government Revenues 1839562.00
LKR Million		 1970000 2020000 2020000 2020000 2110000
Military Expenditure 1842.50
USD Million		 1870 1883 1883 1883 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.10
percent		 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 5.1
Capacity Utilization 81.00
percent		 77 80 80 80 81
Changes in Inventories 1217425.70
LKR Million		 1100000 1170000 1170000 1170000 1220000
Car Registrations 8147.00
 6778 6560 6480 6410 6690
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps		 8800 8990 10500 11200 12000
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP		 91700 89200 88700 90500 92000
Services Pmi 53.00
 57.9 56.8 56.9 56.5 56.9
Business Confidence 78.00
Index Points		 81 83 81 82 88
Corruption Index 38.00
Points		 38 38 38 38 38
Corruption Rank 91.00
 91 91 91 91 91
Competitiveness Index 56.00
Points		 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 59
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
 85 85 85 85 85
Ease of Doing Business 100.00
 108 103 103 103 105
Manufacturing Pmi 54.10
 55.9 56.2 56.8 54.8 58.9
Manufacturing Production 1.10
percent		 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 1.3
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Spending 8262817.00
LKR Million		 8585067 8651169 8684221 8709009 9437907
Personal Savings 15.20
percent		 24.1 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.8
Private Sector Credit 5274338.00
LKR Million		 5400000 5550000 5620000 5690000 5800000
Bank Lending Rate 11.74
percent		 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.74 11.99
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 803.60
Index Points		 815 827 837 845 873
Building Permits 2824.00
 2690 2830 2700 2840 2940
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent		 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 17 16 17 16
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent		 8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm		 265 95.42 143 143 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius		 26.01 26.46 27.57 27.59 27.61



Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook