Switzerland’s retail trade unexpectedly jumped 0.7 percent year-on-year in June 2019, following a downwardly revised 1.1 percent drop in the previous month and beating market consensus of a 0.6 percent decline. This was the first yearly increase in retail trade since October last year, as non-food sales rose faster (1.7 percent vs 0.4 percent in May) while food, beverages & tobacco sales fell at a slower pace (-0.7 percent vs -2.7 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.5 percent in June, reversing a 1 percent decline in May. Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland averaged 1.24 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in September of 2008 and a record low of -4.20 percent in December of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Switzerland to stand at 1.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Switzerland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.