Thailand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 1.1 1.5 1 0.9 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 1.00 1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.38 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 2 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 1580.00 1616 992 1403 982 1135 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.80 43 43 45 45 46 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 33.32
33.46 33.79 34.12 34.46 35.85
Stock Market 1103.32
points
1045 1017 990 964 865
Government Bond 10Y 2.67
percent
2.68 2.78 2.88 2.99 3.46
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00
percent
1.1 1.5 1 0.9 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80
percent
4.3 4.1 4.3 4.2 3
GDP 455.22
USD Billion
475 475 494 494 510
GDP Constant Prices 2633183.00
THB Million
2625263 2688040 2746410 2652041 2879428
Gross National Product 4839.07
THB Billion
4943 5037 5047 5042 5396
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 634226.00
THB Million
616148 642373 661498 627504 688110
GDP per capita 6125.70
USD
6375 6375 6445 6445 6641
GDP per capita PPP 16277.70
USD
16588 16588 17012 17012 16200
GDP From Agriculture 133786.00
THB Million
130629 123445 139539 142120 132234
GDP From Construction 74177.00
THB Million
72245 74321 77367 72310 79613
GDP From Manufacturing 719958.00
THB Million
732546 747214 750916 726335 800416
GDP From Mining 59225.00
THB Million
58900 62756 61772 60512 67224
GDP From Public Administration 127651.00
THB Million
128865 132532 133140 133110 141968
GDP From Transport 273468.00
THB Million
270279 281437 285227 273034 301476
GDP From Utilities 82888.00
THB Million
86339 87049 86452 85178 93247
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5
Employed Persons 37965.60
Thousand
37565 38900 37556 37558 39500
Unemployed Persons 401.70
Thousand
397 395 407 408 458
Job Vacancies 45423.00
35385 32000 36031 36068 42022
Wages 13721.14
THB/Month
14000 14310 14350 13873 14800
Wages in Manufacturing 12660.43
THB/Month
12820 13190 12783 12806 13770
Minimum Wages 325.00
THB/Day
325 325 334 334 345
Population 66.19
Million
66.5 66.5 66.9 66.9 68
Productivity 124.10
Index Points
117 110 123 120 111
Labour Costs 89.45
Index Points
95.9 101 93.2 91.22 104
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent
4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.8
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.38
percent
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.09
percent
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.06 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.05
Index Points
103 103 103 104 107
Core Consumer Prices 102.06
Index Points
102 102 103 103 104
Core Inflation Rate 0.83
percent
0.88 0.7 0.91 0.91 1
GDP Deflator 147.46
Index Points
156 153 148 151 163
Producer Prices 103.20
Index Points
101 115 101 101 124
Export Prices 104.10
Index Points
105 106 104 106 107
Import Prices 96.44
Index Points
97.7 106 97.4 97.6 104
Food Inflation -0.03
percent
2.29 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.85
CPI Housing Utilities 100.28
Index Points
101 101 102 102 106
CPI Transportation 103.23
Index Points
102 103 103 105 107
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 1.75 2 2 2.25
Money Supply M0 1380578.00
THB Million
1363916 1450000 1378353 1375894 1550000
Money Supply M1 2008.20
THB Billion
2001 2060 2000 2000 2300
Money Supply M3 19546.25
THB Billion
19558 20800 19546 19545 22700
Banks Balance Sheet 18812777.00
THB Million
18821171 18823558 18824311 18824566 18824703
Foreign Exchange Reserves 206800.00
USD Million
204105 196000 202366 201988 202300
Loans to Private Sector 3991691.00
THB Million
3996188 3960690 3988975 3984025 3934374
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29
percent
1.54 1.54 1.79 1.79 2.04
Interbank Rate 1.58
percent
1.83 1.83 2.08 2.08 2.33
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7752180.00
THB Million
7801575 7550000 7815172 7815862 7850000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1580.00
USD Million
1616 992 1403 982 1135
Exports 21780.00
USD Million
21876 18309 21747 21325 20045
Imports 20201.04
USD Million
20260 17317 20343 20343 18910
Current Account 960.00
USD Million
3508 4700 3472 3472 5000
Current Account to GDP 10.60
percent
4.6 4.6 6.2 6.2 7.6
External Debt 152733.25
USD Million
155708 155576 156689 156554 139000
Terms of Trade 107.95
Index Points
107 100 107 108 103
Tourist Arrivals 2755050.00
3080600 3332024 3052600 3051600 3635200
Gold Reserves 154.00
Tonnes
154 152 154 154 152
Terrorism Index 6.61
6.5 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.8
Remittances 12120.00
THB Billion
11903 15182 11878 11875 22000
Crude Oil Production 244.00
BBL/D/1K
243 245 244 239 250
Foreign Direct Investment 20587.32
THB Million
21959 13700 21892 21894 24000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.80
percent
43 43 45 45 46
Government Budget -2.70
percent of GDP
-2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.6 -3
Government Budget Value 41951.00
THB Million
-11783 9000 -2736 -1870 45000
Government Spending 392389.00
THB Million
383324 409032 409262 396432 438155
Government Revenues 197491.00
THB Million
193472 195000 194511 194630 251000
Fiscal Expenditure 155540.00
THB Million
205256 186000 197247 196500 206000
Military Expenditure 6075.70
USD Million
6129 6129 6151 6151 6198
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 52.80
Index Points
51.2 52.5 49.7 50.1 52
Industrial Production 3.20
percent
3.48 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.1
Industrial Production Mom 15.15
percent
1 -0.5 0.5 2.1 0.6
Capacity Utilization 69.42
Index Points
68.8 65.6 68.7 68.9 67.1
Changes in Inventories 2081.00
THB Million
-12333 30400 6146 -14921 29400
Car Registrations 41003.00
39838 30776 40260 40222 38500
Leading Economic Index 150.52
Index Points
150 166 153 153 173
Internet Speed 15999.07
KBps
16012 16058 17325 17547 21000
IP Addresses 2822892.00
IP
2572798 2584854 2565739 2581226 2572084
Total Vehicle Sales 87854.00
85801 100740 84904 84862 119710
Manufacturing Pmi 50.20
49.9 50.2 50 50.1 51.1
Cement Production 3326.09
Thousands of Ton
3316 3319 3321 3323 3345
Car Production 193130.00
183203 152000 183231 183232 180000
Coincident Index 128.43
Index Points
129 131 129 129 145
Competitiveness Index 4.72
Points
4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 5
Competitiveness Rank 32.00
34 32 32 32 27
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
42 42 37 37 43
Corruption Rank 96.00
95 95 93 93 77
Ease of Doing Business 26.00
31 31 38 38 35
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 81.30
Index Points
81.8 82.1 81.9 82 78
Retail Sales YoY 9.30
percent
8.7 8.3 8.8 8.9 5.1
Consumer Spending 1326084.00
THB Million
1326963 1362561 1383106 1350477 1459575
Disposable Personal Income 7931560.00
THB Million
8097607 8202027 8268735 8335443 9248025
Personal Savings 8.70
percent
8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.7
Bank Lending Rate 7.00
percent
7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75
Personal Spending 0.90
percent
0.3 1.2 0.2 0.4 1.3
Consumer Credit 4167748.00
THB Million
4285006 4343580 4402118 4460620 5043639
Gasoline Prices 1.14
USD/Liter
1.08 1.02 0.96 0.91 0.65
Households Debt To Gdp 68.00
percent of GDP
67.8 67.5 67.6 68 76.8
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 136.50
Index points
138 138 138 138 140
Housing Starts 6129.00
8678 13100 8654 8657 14900
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 27.55
celsius
26.87 24.26 24.95 26.64 26.62