Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 2.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a downwardly revised 3.6 percent expansion in the previous period and below market consensus of 3.0 percent. It was the weakest GDP growth rate since the fourth quarter 2014, as both private consumption and investment rose softer, and net external contributed negatively to GDP growth. For 2019, the NESDB revised its economic forecast to 3.3-3.8 percent from 3.5-4.5 percent in February. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Thailand averaged 3.73 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and a record low of -12.50 percent in the second quarter of 1998.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Thailand is expected to be 3.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Thailand to stand at 3.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-19 02:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 3.3% 4.6% 4.2% 4.3%
2019-02-18 02:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 3.7% 3.2% 3.6% 3.8%
2019-02-18 02:30 AM Full Year GDP Growth 2018 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2%
2019-05-21 02:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 2.8% 3.6% 3% 3.7%
2019-08-19 02:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 2.8% 2.5%
2019-11-18 02:30 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 3.2%



Thailand Q1 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in Over 4 Years

Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 2.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a downwardly revised 3.6 percent expansion in the previous period and below market consensus of 3.0 percent. It was the weakest GDP growth rate since the fourth quarter 2014, as both private consumption and investment rose softer, and net external contributed negatively to GDP growth

On the expenditure side, private consumption increased 4.6 percent, compared to a 5.4 percent expansion in the prior quarter, mainly due to a rise in non-farm income. Durable spending, in particular spending on personal vehicles increased robustly. Meanwhile, spending on non-durable goods continued to rise, particular on food items and other non-durable goods. On the other hand, spending on semi-durable goods and net services slowed down.

Gross fixed capital formation advanced 3.2 percent, softer than 4.2 percent in Q4. Private investment grew 4.4 percent, easing from a 5.5 percent rise in Q4, mainly due to a 5.5 percent expansion of investment on machinery (from 5.6 percent in Q4). On the other hand, spending on private construction expanded 1.8 percent, easing from 5.1 percent in Q4. Meanwhile, public investment contracted 0.1 percent (the same as in Q4), largely due to a decrease in enterprise investment (-1.4 percent vs 4.7 percent) while government investment rebounded (0.6 percent vs -3.0 percent).

Meanwhile, net external contributed negatively to GDP growth, as exports of goods and services fell 4.9 percent (vs 0.7 percent in Q4) while imports of goods and services dropped at a softer 0.2 percent (vs 5.7 percent in Q4).

Conversely, government spending went up 3.3 percent, compared with 1.4 percent in Q4, attributed mainly to a rise in compensation of employees (1.7 percent) along with social transfer in kind (5.6 percent). Also, purchases from enterprises and abroad consumption of fixed capital rose by 5.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

On the production side, the non-agricultural sector expanded 3.0 percent, slowing from 4.0 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. Output grew at a softer pace for: manufacturing (0.6 percent vs 3.5 percent in Q4); wholesale and retail trade (6.8 percent vs 7.5 percent); information and communication (6.8 percent vs 6.9 percent); transportation and storage (3.4 percent vs 5.4 percent), accomodation and food service activities (4.9 percent vs 5.3 percent); health and social work (3.9 percent vs 4.3 percent), arts, entertaintment and recreation (11.8 percent vs 12.5 percent), professional, scientific and technical activities (1.2 percent vs 3.4 percent); real estate, renting and business activities (4.7 percent vs 4.9 percent); construction (3.0 percent vs 3.4 percent); other service activities (2.5 percent vs 4.3 percent). On the other hand, faster growth was seen in electricity, gas and water supply (5.4 percent vs 5.0 percent); financial and insurance activities (2.4 percent vs 1.8 percent); and public administration and defence (0.9 percent vs 0.1 percent).

Gains were also registered in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (4.9 percent vs 4.5 percent) and education (1.2 percent vs -0.7 percent in Q4). Also, agriculture increased 0.9 percent, accelerating from a 0.7 percent growth in the December quarter, amid higher yields of major crops, namely paddy, cassava, palm oil and rubber. Also, production of livestock such as swine and chicken and eggs increased. By contrast, output of mining and quarrying shrank (-0.9 percent vs -0.7 percent). 

On a quarterly basis, the GDP expanded 1.0 percent in the three months to March, after an upwardly revised 0.9 percent expansion in the previous period and below market consensus of a 1.4 percent growth. It was the second straight quarter of quarterly expansion.

For 2019, the NESDB revised its economic forecast to 3.3-3.8 percent from 3.5-4.5 percent in February, with exports seen up 2.2 percent (from 4.1 percent) and private consumption and total investment to rise 4.2 percent (the same pace as previously estimated) and 4.5 percent (from 5.1 percent), respectively.
 
 


Nesdb, Thailand l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
5/21/2019 10:19:41 AM


News

Thailand Q4 GDP Annual Growth Above Expectations
Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 3.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 3.2 percent expansion in the previous period and slightly above market consensus of 3.6 percent. Both private consumption and investment rose faster, while government spending slowed and net external contributed negatively to GDP growth.
Published on 2019-02-18

Thailand Q3 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in 7 Quarters
Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 3.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, following a 4.6 percent expansion in the previous period and far below market consensus of 4.2 percent. It was the weakest growth rate since the fourth quarter 2016, as net external demand contributed negatively to growth while government spending, investment, and private consumption continued to rise at a solid pace.
Published on 2018-11-19

Thailand Q2 GDP Annual Growth Beats Estimates
Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, following an upwardly revised 4.9 percent expansion in the previous period but beating market consensus of 4.5 percent. Government spending rose at a slower pace while investment, private consumption, and exports continued to increase at a solid pace.
Published on 2018-08-20

Thailand Q1 GDP Growth Strongest in 5 Years
Thailand's gross domestic product grew by 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, following a 4 percent expansion in the previous period and beating market consensus of 4 percent. It was the strongest growth since the first quarter 2013, as government spending, investment, and private consumption rose at faster paces.
Published on 2018-05-21



Thailand GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.90 9.40 -6.30 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 3.60 15.50 -12.50 percent [+]
GDP 504.99 455.28 504.99 2.76 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2713945.00 2686981.00 2713945.00 1043939.00 THB Million [+]
Gross National Product 2862899.00 2758637.00 2862899.00 1042725.00 THB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 653075.00 647739.00 713853.00 258609.00 THB Million [+]
GDP per capita 6361.60 6128.70 6361.60 570.90 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16904.70 16285.60 16904.70 6653.30 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 168442.00 119237.00 168442.00 68261.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Construction 74116.00 72869.00 103693.00 36619.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 722461.00 736392.00 736392.00 267937.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Mining 57520.00 58841.00 63813.00 20063.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 130939.00 128955.00 130939.00 41767.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Transport 284022.00 277151.00 284022.00 64995.00 THB Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 88158.00 84733.00 88158.00 22202.00 THB Million [+]


Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate

Thailand is an export oriented emerging economy. As a result, manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 34 percent of GDP. Services constitute around 44 percent of GDP. Within services, the most important are wholesale and retail trade (13 percent of GDP); transport, storage and communication (7 percent of GDP); hotels and restaurants (5 percent of GDP) and public administration, defense and social security (4.5 percent of GDP). Agriculture also makes a significant contribution - around 13 percent of GDP. This page provides - Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Thailand GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.80 3.60 15.50 -12.50 1994 - 2019 percent Quarterly




Country Last Previous
China 6.20 Jun/19
India 5.80 Mar/19
Indonesia 5.07 Mar/19
United States 3.20 Mar/19
Spain 2.40 Mar/19
Australia 1.80 Mar/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Mar/19
Netherlands 1.70 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 1.70 Mar/19
South Korea 1.70 Mar/19
Switzerland 1.70 Mar/19
Canada 1.30 Mar/19
Euro Area 1.20 Mar/19
France 1.20 Mar/19
Mexico 1.20 Mar/19
Japan 0.90 Mar/19
Germany 0.70 Mar/19
Brazil 0.50 Mar/19
Russia 0.50 Mar/19
Singapore 0.10 Jun/19
South Africa 0.00 Mar/19
Italy -0.10 Mar/19
Turkey -2.60 Mar/19
Argentina -5.80 Mar/19


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