The Bank of Thailand kept the policy rate at 1.75 percent on February 6th 2019 meeting, after hiking it by 25 bps on the previous meeting, as widely expected. The Committee said that the current accommodating monetary policy stance would remain appropriate in the period ahead and would continue to support economic growth, financial stability and inflation. Still, two members out of six voted to raise the policy rate by 25 bps to 2 percent. Interest Rate in Thailand averaged 2.21 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in June of 2006 and a record low of 1.25 percent in June of 2003.

Interest Rate in Thailand is expected to be 1.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Thailand to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Thailand Interest Rate is projected to trend around 2.25 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Thailand Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-19 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
2018-11-14 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
2018-12-19 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.5% 1.75% 1.5%
2019-02-06 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
2019-03-20 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision 1.75%
2019-05-08 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision
2019-06-19 07:05 AM Interest Rate Decision



Thailand Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

The Bank of Thailand voted by four to two to keep the policy rate at 1.75 percent on February 6th 2019 meeting, after hiking it by 25 bps on the previous meeting, as widely expected. The Committee said that the current accommodative monetary policy stance would remain appropriate in the period ahead and would continue to support economic growth, financial stability and inflation. Still, two members voted to raises the policy rate by 25 bps to 2 percent.

Statement by the Bank of Thailand:
 
The Thai economy as a whole was expected to continue expanding around its potential despite increased downside risks. This was due to merchandise exports growth which was affected by the global economic slowdown, trade protectionism measures between the US and China, and a down cycle of electronic products. Meanwhile, tourism would improve mainly on the back of a faster-than-expected recovery in the number of Chinese tourists. Domestic demand momentum continued to expand. Private consumption was expected to expand on the back of increasingly broad-based improvements in both farm and non-farm income with additional supports from government measures. Nevertheless, private consumption was restrained by elevated household debt. Private investment was projected to expand thanks to the relocation of production base to Thailand and public-private partnership projects for infrastructure investment. Public expenditure would grow at a slower pace mainly due to the lower-than-expected actual spending and budget for current and capital expenditures as well as delayed investment by some state-owned enterprises.

Headline inflation was restrained by lower energy prices and subject to increased downside risks due to fluctuations in energy and fresh food prices. Core inflation would edge up given the gradually rising demand-pull inflationary pressures. The Committee viewed that structural changes contributed to more persistent inflation than in the past.
 
Financial conditions over the previous period had been accommodative and conducive to economic growth with ample liquidity in the financial system. Financial institutions gradually increased interest rates following the policy rate, especially deposit interest rates. Real interest rates rose but still remained at a low level, allowing financing by the private sector to continue expanding. Loans extended to businesses and consumers continued to grow. With regard to exchange rates, the Thai baht against the US dollar appreciated mainly due to the weakened US dollar. Looking ahead, the baht would likely remain volatile due to uncertainties pertaining to external front.
 
Financial stability remained sound overall but there remained a need to monitor risks that might pose vulnerabilities to financial stability in the future, especially the search-for-yield behavior amid the low interest rate environment that might lead to underpricing of risks. The Committee viewed that the implemented macro-prudential measures and the increased policy rate would help curb accumulation of vulnerabilities in the financial system to some extent.

Looking ahead, the Thai economy was projected to continue to gain traction although the external demand might slow down. The Committee viewed that accommodative monetary policy would remain appropriate in the period ahead, and thus would continue to monitor developments of economic growth, inflation, and financial stability, together with associated risks, in deliberating appropriate monetary policy in the period ahead.


Bank of Thailand l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
2/6/2019 7:57:18 AM



Thailand Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 5.00 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.87 1.87 5.41 1.35 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1504450.00 1420424.00 1504450.00 280977.00 THB Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2095.10 1994.90 2095.10 365.90 THB Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20117.03 19837.28 20117.03 5077.80 THB Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 18950595.00 18745339.00 18950595.00 14874369.00 THB Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 208300.00 207300.00 215614.70 326.00 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 4181406.00 4117881.00 4181406.00 1701089.00 THB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29 1.30 13.67 1.02 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7372227.00 7513450.00 7816961.00 2103522.00 THB Million [+]


Thailand Interest Rate

In Thailand, interest rates decisions are taken by The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee. The main interest rate is the 1-day repurchase rate. This page provides - Thailand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Thailand Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.75 1.75 5.00 1.25 2000 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 44.21 Feb/19
Turkey 24.00 Jan/19
Mexico 8.25 Feb/19
Russia 7.75 Feb/19
South Africa 6.75 Jan/19
Brazil 6.50 Feb/19
India 6.25 Feb/19
Indonesia 6.00 Jan/19
China 4.35 Jan/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jan/19
United States 2.50 Jan/19
Singapore 1.90 Jan/19
Canada 1.75 Jan/19
South Korea 1.75 Jan/19
Australia 1.50 Jan/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Feb/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jan/19
France 0.00 Jan/19
Germany 0.00 Jan/19
Italy 0.00 Jan/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jan/19
Spain 0.00 Jan/19
Japan -0.10 Jan/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jan/19


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