The Turkish lira weakened past 7.6 per US dollar in the second week of March, having touched its lowest level since December 24th on Monday, amid concerns about the country's inflation rate and rising US yields. Economic data showed last week that consumer prices were up 15.6% year-on-year in February, the biggest increase since July 2019 and above market expectations of 15.4%, adding to pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates. Since Naci Agbal was appointed as governor in November, interest rates were raised by 675 basis points. Earlier this month, the fourth-quarter GDP report showed Turkey's economy was one of the few in the world to avoid a contraction amid the pandemic crisis; while markets are now seeing a near 5% expansion this year.
Historically, the Turkish Lira reached an all time high of 8.58 in November of 2020. Turkish Lira - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March of 2021.
The Turkish Lira is expected to trade at 7.61 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7.88 in 12 months time.