Turkey posted a current account surplus of USD 1.83 billion in September 2018, compared to a deficit of USD 4.44 billion in the same month a year earlier and below market expectations of a USD 2 billion surplus. It was the second consecutive monthly surplus mainly due to a sharp decline in the goods deficit (USD 0.83 billion from USD 6.72 billion) as imports slumped 18.3 percent amid a weak lira and slowing economy. In addition, the primary income deficit decreased to USD 0.94 billion from USD 1.07 billion a year ago, while the services surplus increased to USD 3.49 billion from USD 3.13 billion. The secondary income surplus, however, declined to USD 0.10 billion from USD 0.22 billion. Considering the first nine months of the year, the current account deficit narrowed to USD 29.99 billion from USD 31.29 billion in the same period of 2017. Current Account in Turkey averaged -1439.51 USD Million from 1984 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1863 USD Million in August of 2018 and a record low of -9407 USD Million in March of 2011.
Current Account in Turkey is expected to be -2500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Current Account in Turkey to stand at -2900.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Current Account is projected to trend around -3200.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.