Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.60 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.7 9.5 percent
Inflation Rate 15.39 14.4 11 9.5 9.1 7.5 percent
Interest Rate 17.75 17.75 17.5 15.5 12.5 9.5 percent
Balance of Trade -7759.34 -7800 -6900 -4600 -5000 -4000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 32.5 32.5 34.2 34.2 36.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 4.83
4.84 5 5.15 5.31 6.01
Stock Market 90325.89
points
92528 88209 84084 80162 66206
Government Bond 10y 17.70
percent
17.51 18.33 19.19 20.09 24.12
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00
percent
0.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.40
percent
6.2 5.9 5.1 4.9 3.8
GDP 851.10
USD Billion
890 890 925 925 950
GDP Constant Prices 396065974.10
TRY THO
477768386 491896403 416265339 464104912 533564947
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 115606032.10
TRY THO
139623199 146116093 121501940 141397108 158493587
GDP per capita 14933.27
USD
15500 15500 16100 16100 16700
GDP per capita PPP 25129.34
USD
25700 25700 26400 26400 27100
GDP From Agriculture 10223772.00
TRY THO
57508927 26326997 10745184 19621173 28557157
GDP From Construction 26973649.40
TRY THO
38327274 35703777 28349306 37374489 38728244
GDP From Manufacturing 71288895.70
TRY THO
72082270 83831093 74924629 79834385 90932425
GDP From Public Administration 42061259.07
TRY THO
41608789 45800150 44206383 45148864 49679880
Gdp From Services 91952312.50
TRY THO
106475100 113047441 96641880 103446921 122623689
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.60
percent
10.4 10.2 10.1 9.7 9.5
Employed Persons 29009.00
Thousand
29500 30100 29200 29600 34600
Unemployed Persons 3086.00
Thousand
3280 2990 3850 3200 3220
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.10
percent
53.4 53.2 53.2 53.6 54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.90
percent
20.1 18.9 20.2 19.5 20
Labour Costs 147.86
Index Points
155 160 165 170 215
Wages 2207.00
TRY/Month
2800 2800 3000 3000 3200
Wages in Manufacturing 155.45
Index Points
162 167 172 178 205
Minimum Wages 2029.50
TRY/Month
2030 2030 2280 2280 2530
Population 80.81
Million
82.15 82.15 83.42 83.42 84.34
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00
TRY/Month
1480 1480 1550 1550 1600
Wages High Skilled 2830.00
TRY/Month
2950 2950 3100 3100 3200
Part Time Employment 3084.10
Thousand
2900 2900 3200 3200 3600
Living Wage Family 2870.00
TRY/Month
2910 2910 2950 2950 3100
Living Wage Individual 1720.00
TRY/Month
1750 1750 1800 1800 1850
Employment Rate 47.60
percent
47.9 48.4 47.1 48 51
Full Time Employment 24245.70
Thousand
26100 26100 26400 26500 28600
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 15.39
percent
14.4 11 9.5 9.1 7.5
Inflation Rate Mom 2.61
percent
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 357.44
Index Points
359 363 368 390 422
Core Consumer Prices 306.98
Index Points
312 321 324 342 386
Core Inflation Rate 14.60
percent
14.4 12.9 12.2 11.5 9.1
GDP Deflator 158.60
Index Points
204 209 212 215 232
Producer Prices 365.60
Index Points
364 369 384 411 444
Producer Prices Change 23.71
percent
21.1 16.5 15.1 12.5 8.5
Export Prices 96.79
Index Points
100 101 101 102 105
Import Prices 94.04
Index Points
97 98 98 101 107
Food Inflation 18.89
percent
17.7 16.5 14.4 12.9 8.6
CPI Transportation 363.74
Index Points
351 363 366 397 421
Harmonised Consumer Prices 131.37
Index Points
138 139 141 143 162
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 17.75
percent
17.75 17.5 15.5 12.5 9.5
Interbank Rate 19.41
percent
19.41 19.16 17.16 14.16 11.16
Money Supply M1 499394060.90
TRY Thousand
534000000 551000000 574000000 591000000 816000000
Money Supply M2 1809447445.60
TRY Thousand
1926000000 1951000000 2091000000 2151000000 2637000000
Money Supply M3 1867310676.80
TRY Thousand
1951000000 1988000000 2109000000 2179000000 2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 133521.80
USD Million
132398 132304 132284 132281 132280
Banks Balance Sheet 3353671813.00
TRY Thousand
3490000000 3678000000 3751000000 3871000000 5109000000
Loans to Private Sector 1222377636.00
TRY Thousand
1321000000 1383000000 1433000000 1451000000 1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate 16.25
percent
16.25 16 14 11 8
Private Debt to GDP 170.80
percent
177 177 179 179 182
Lending Rate 19.25
percent
8.5 8.5 8.25 14 7
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet 713583786.00
TRY Thousand
686000000 695000000 708000000 721000000 875000000
Foreign Stock Investment 36280.00
USD Million
37777 38016 37942 37951 37947
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -7759.34
USD Million
-7800 -6900 -4600 -5000 -4000
Exports 14305.73
USD Million
14100 15600 17200 15500 20400
Imports 22065.07
USD Million
21900 22500 21800 20500 24400
Current Account -5890.00
USD Million
-5600 -6800 -4200 -3400 -3200
Current Account to GDP -5.50
percent
-4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
External Debt 466657.00
USD Million
483000 491000 499000 505000 591000
Terms of Trade 102.92
Index Points
103 103 103 101 98.13
Capital Flows 2502.00
USD Million
2910 2850 3450 2980 4740
Foreign Direct Investment 10900.00
USD Million
12500 12500 14200 14200 16500
Remittances 25.00
USD Million
45 45 51 51 65
Tourism Revenues 1613.00
USD Million
11850 5760 4250 6150 6600
Tourist Arrivals 3678440.00
4150000 1440000 1690000 3878900 1620000
Gold Reserves 236.00
Tonnes
281 211 206 228 238
Terrorism Index 7.52
7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Weapons Sales 244.00
USD Million
286 282 297 311 298
Crude Oil Production 53.00
BBL/D/1K
50 50 50 50 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30
percent
32.5 32.5 34.2 34.2 36.6
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4
Government Budget Value 1981913.00
TRY Thousand
-7400000 -29200000 -16700000 -13500000 -28400000
Government Spending 54059159.40
TRY THO
57026381 74279998 56816177 61519247 80572256
Government Revenues 67756904.00
TRY Thousand
36200000 55100000 40700000 43700000 57400000
Government Debt 871600.00
TRY Million
924300 936200 938700 941100 962000
Fiscal Expenditure 65774991.00
TRY Thousand
43600000 84300000 57400000 57200000 85800000
Military Expenditure 19579.90
USD Million
19796 20209 20494 20779 22174
Asylum Applications 7086.00
Persons
11900 9860 9100 5100 6450
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 104.60
Index Points
108 113 113 112 110
Manufacturing PMI 46.80
53.4 54.2 54.5 54 53.2
Industrial Production 6.40
percent
5.1 4.6 3.8 3.6 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -1.60
percent
0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Manufacturing Production 6.50
percent
4.9 4.2 3.6 3.4 2
Capacity Utilization 78.30
percent
77.4 78.5 78.8 78.8 78
Changes in Inventories 17396862.00
TRY THO
15100000 -1780000 -3200000 -3200000 -1560000
Bankruptcies 652.00
Companies
915 1860 680 1090 1710
Total Vehicle Sales 51037.00
72200 165000 77500 86600 169000
Car Production 148304.00
Units
137800 159800 162500 147900 165400
Car Registrations 100403.00
87100 132000 106900 98800 135000
Leading Economic Index 4.42
percent
4.7 4.9 4.5 4.5 3
Internet Speed 7557.69
KBps
7680 7462 7673 7495 7528
IP Addresses 8079762.00
IP
8061923 8070964 8077035 8077370 8092863
Steel Production 3325.07
Thousand Tonnes
2900 2720 3400 3200 2730
Mining Production 12.00
percent
7.5 4.4 3.2 3 2
Competitiveness Index 4.42
Points
4.42 4.42 4.45 4.45 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 53.00
53 53 52 52 51
Ease of Doing Business 60.00
59 59 58 58 57
Electricity Production 23357.00
Gigawatt-hour
24100 24000 23800 22900 24700
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
41 41 42 42 43
Corruption Rank 81.00
80 80 79 79 78
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 70.30
Index Points
72.8 74.7 75 75.5 82.5
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent
-0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 8.00
percent
5.9 4.9 4.5 4.1 2.5
Consumer Spending 251250625.30
TRY THO
285094549 300150854 264064407 277872066 325576633
Consumer Credit 523523878.00
TRY THO
541000000 559000000 568000000 575000000 651000000
Private Sector Credit 1906757961.00
TRY Thousand
1846000000 1914000000 1982000000 2073000000 2781000000
Economic Optimism Index 90.40
Index points
98.5 103 104 103 102
Households Debt To Gdp 17.40
percent of GDP
18 18 22 22 25
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.29 1.22 1.15 1.09 0.61
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 259.60
Index points
274 282 289 295 339
New Home Sales 47534.00
units
74500 84700 60900 54600 91400
Building Permits 49669.00
289900 95000 102500 219100 149000
Existing Home Sales 55553.00
units
72400 72100 77200 63700 79500
Housing Starts 6822.00
25100 9500 12700 24600 19600
Home Ownership Rate 60.40
percent
61.2 61.2 61.5 61.5 61.7
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 37.50
percent
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 21.64 21.3 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.20
mm
15.42 59.68 64.21 47.12 48.36
Temperature 0.97
celsius
21.35 7.94 2.46 20.08 11.92