Turkish economy contracted by 3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to an upwardly revised 1.8 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and worse than market expectations of 2.7 percent contraction. This was the first contraction since the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and fixed investment fell while government spending rose at a softer pace. On the positive note, net external demand contributed positively to the GDP due to a drop in imports prompted by falling lira. For 2018 as a whole, the economy grew 2.6 percent, compared to a 7.4 percent expansion in 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey averaged 4.73 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 11.70 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of -14.40 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey to stand at 1.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-06-11 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 7.4% 7.3% 7% 7.5%
2018-09-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 5.2% 7.3% 5.1%
2018-12-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.6% 5.3% 2% 2.2%
2019-03-11 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY -3% 1.8% -2.7% -2.2%
2019-05-31 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY -3% 0.5%
2019-09-02 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1%
2019-12-02 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2%



Turkish Economy Shrinks for 1st Time in Over 2 Years

The Turkish economy contracted by 3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to an upwardly revised 1.8 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and worse than market expectations of 2.7 percent contraction. This was the first contraction since the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and fixed investment fell while government spending rose at a softer pace. On the positive note, net external demand contributed positively to the GDP due to a drop in imports prompted by falling lira.

On the expenditure side, household consumption tumbled 8.9 percent, after a 0.8 percent rise in Q3 and fixed investment slumped 12.9 percent, following a 4.7 percent fall in the previous period. In addition, government spending went up at a softer 0.5 percent (vs 3.4 percent in Q3). On the other hand, net external demand contributed positively to the GDP growth, as exports increased 10.6 percent (vs 13,6 percent in Q3) and imports tumbled 24.4 percent (vs -16.8 percent in Q3) due to a weak lira.
 
On the production side, industrial production shrank by 6.4 percent (vs 0.1 percent in Q3) dragged by manufacturing (-7.4 percent vs 0.5 percent) and agriculture contracted by 0.5 percent, reversing a 1.8 percent increase in the previous period. Meantime, construction output shrank by 8.7 percent, following a 5.6 percent contraction in the third quarter. Also, services output contracted 0.3 percent (vs 4.8 percent in Q3), mainly due to financial and insurance activities (-16.2 percent vs 8.4 percent); professional, administrative and support service activities (-10.2 percent vs -7.3 percent), while both public administration, education, human health and social work activities (5.7 percent vs 11.4 percent) and information and communication (2.9 percent vs 3.4 percent) grew at a softer pace. In contrast, real estate expansion accelerated to 4.7 percent in the three months to December from 2.3 percent in the previous period.
 
For 2018 as a whole, the economy grew 2.6 percent, compared to a 7.4 percent expansion in 2017.
 
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, following an upwardly revised 1.6 percent contraction in the previous period.
 
 


Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
3/11/2019 11:07:00 AM


News

Turkish Q3 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in 2 Years
The Turkish economy grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 5.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and below market expectations of 2 percent. This was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and government spending increased at a softer pace while investment fell. On the other hand, net external demand contributed positively to the expansion as a weak lira boosted exports.
Published on 2018-12-10

Turkish GDP Growth Slows to 5.2% in Q2
The Turkish economy grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, easing from a downwardly revised 7.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. It was the weakest growth rate since the last quarter of 2016.
Published on 2018-09-10

Turkish GDP Growth Exceeds Forecasts
The Turkish economy grew by 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, following a 7.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and beating market expectations of 7 percent.
Published on 2018-06-11

Turkish Economy Grows 7.3% in Q4
The Turkish economy grew by 7.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, following an upwardly revised 11.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and beating market expectations of 7 percent.
Published on 2018-03-29



Turkey GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate -2.40 -1.60 5.60 -5.20 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -3.00 1.80 11.70 -14.40 percent [+]
GDP 851.10 863.72 950.58 8.02 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 450961520.00 457722367.40 464822255.50 148486309.20 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 120801435.60 125935686.70 138694476.00 82266.40 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 14933.27 14117.44 14933.27 3134.78 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25129.34 23756.48 25129.34 11289.91 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 24788022.00 54843545.90 54843545.90 6480266.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 30976895.40 34246741.00 36146657.30 5582784.30 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 73726975.30 69137857.90 79601043.70 23491042.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 45002063.81 43046748.90 45129705.30 21779242.77 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Services 106768068.30 105143134.20 107042725.30 35367503.20 TRY THO [+]


Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of Turkish GDP and accounts for 70 percent, followed by gross fixed capital formation (22 percent) and government expenditure (15 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 27 percent of GDP while imports account for 32 percent, subtracting 5 percent from total GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-3.00 1.80 11.70 -14.40 1999 - 2018 percent Quarterly
NSA




Country Last Previous
India 6.60 Dec/18
China 6.40 Dec/18
Indonesia 5.18 Dec/18
South Korea 3.10 Dec/18
United States 3.10 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 2.50 Sep/18
Spain 2.40 Dec/18
Australia 2.30 Dec/18
Netherlands 2.00 Dec/18
Singapore 1.90 Dec/18
Mexico 1.70 Dec/18
Canada 1.60 Dec/18
Russia 1.50 Sep/18
Switzerland 1.40 Dec/18
United Kingdom 1.30 Dec/18
Brazil 1.10 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.10 Dec/18
South Africa 1.10 Dec/18
France 0.90 Dec/18
Germany 0.60 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Turkey -3.00 Dec/18
Argentina -3.50 Sep/18


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