Turkey’s retail trade fell 6.9 percent year-on-year in April 2019, following a downwardly revised 3.4 percent decline in the previous month. Sales dropped further for food, drinks & tobacco (-2.9 percent from -0.2 percent in March); non-food products (-7.1 percent from -4.9 percent); and automotive fuel (-11.6 percent from -3.9 percent). Within non-food products, sales of electronic goods & furniture decreased at a faster pace (-22.4 percent from -12.9 percent) and sales rose less for textiles, clothing & footwear (5.6 percent from 6.7 percent) and via mail orders and internet (18.6 percent from 24.2 percent). On the other hand, sales of computers, books & telecommunications equipment fell at a softer pace (-6.9 percent from -10.2 percent) and sales of medical goods & cosmetic advanced faster (1.6 percent from 0.3 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 1.8 percent, after an upwardly revised 1.3 percent gain in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Turkey averaged 5.99 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in December of 2010 and a record low of -8.80 percent in December of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in Turkey is expected to be -2.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Turkey to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.