Uganda - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 percent
Inflation Rate 3.80 3.7 4 5.2 7.2 6 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 8 8 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -274.20 -288 -278 -278 -278 -278 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 36 36 37 37 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3817.00
3778 3791 3803 3817 3869
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent
0.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40
percent
6.1 6 5.9 5.9 5.9
GDP 25.89
USD Billion
27 27 28.5 28.5 30
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 23903.00
UGX Billion
15399 25337 25313 25313 28308
GDP per capita 666.61
USD
684 673 691 691 690
GDP per capita PPP 1697.70
USD
1713 1715 1789 1789 1757
GDP Constant Prices 14437.68
UGX Billion
17284 16219 15289 15289 18120
GDP From Agriculture 3221.03
UGX Billion
3457 3297 3411 3411 3684
GDP From Construction 1024.32
UGX Billion
1021 1109 1085 1085 1239
GDP From Manufacturing 1183.72
UGX Billion
1224 1233 1254 1254 1377
GDP From Mining 253.14
UGX Billion
235 253 268 268 283
GDP From Public Administration 474.11
UGX Billion
515 530 502 502 592
GDP From Services 8202.18
UGX Billion
8425 8492 8686 8686 9488
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
Population 42.86
Million
43.3 43.3 42.81 42.8 42.7
Wages High Skilled 1777300.00
UGX/Month
1817300 1817300 1817300 1638361 1859522
Wages Low Skilled 430900.00
UGX/Month
440000 440000 440000 403887 445000
Living Wage Family 1408900.00
UGX/Month
1408900 1408900 1508900 1508900 1508900
Living Wage Individual 784800.00
UGX/Month
784800 784800 784800 784800 784800
Employment Rate 47.80
percent
46.03 44.26 45.45 46.65 73.88
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.80
percent
3.7 4 5.2 7.2 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 173.70
Index Points
175 177 179 184 198
Food Inflation -1.70
percent
-0.8 -0.3 1 1.2 -1.36
Import Prices 143.56
Index points
144 144 144 144 144
Producer Prices 184.90
Index Points
192 191 192 193 212
Producer Prices Change -0.30
percent
3 3.5 4 4.2 6.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90
percent
0.48 0.34 0.52 0.45 0.46
Export Prices 177.04
Index points
177 177 177 177 177
Cpi Housing Utilities 198.53
Index Points
201 203 206 209 237
Cpi Transportation 157.90
Index Points
157 161 162 164 179
Core Consumer Prices 169.10
Index Points
171 175 174 174 195
Core Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
4.31 5.21 5.53 5.59 5.63
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 8 8 6.75
Money Supply M2 15058.50
UGX Billion
15500 15543 15405 15484 15455
Money Supply M3 21416.50
UGX Billion
22152 22198 21994 22104 22053
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3438.77
USD Million
3408 3398 3418 3408 3412
Loans to Private Sector 13261.80
SHS Billion
13413 13637 13858 14077 16116
Deposit Interest Rate 9.70
percent
9.7 9.45 8.7 8.7 7.45
Money Supply M1 8867.70
UGX Billion
9145 9102 9003 9044 9030
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -274.20
USD Million
-288 -278 -278 -278 -278
Exports 291.29
USD Million
289 295 295 295 295
Imports 565.50
USD Million
577 573 573 573 573
Current Account -330.50
USD Million
-328 -325 -327 -325 -326
Current Account to GDP -5.40
percent
-7.32 -6.69 -6.69 -7 -5.62
Terms of Trade 123.32
Index Points
123 123 123 123 123
Tourist Arrivals 1449.00
Thousand
1475 1500 1500 1500 1700
Terrorism Index 4.32
4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60
percent
36 36 37 37 35
Government Budget -3.30
percent of GDP
-3.85 -3.95 -4 -4.05 -3.86
Military Expenditure 443.90
USD Million
436 434 435 437 473
Government Spending 5188.41
UGX billion
5505 5500 5495 5495 6145
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 56.26
Index Points
56.51 55.4 58.23 58.31 57.7
Leading Economic Index 217.11
Index Points
219 222 224 226 231
Internet Speed 2353.31
KBps
2714 2771 2828 2885 3417
IP Addresses 20690.00
IP
20225 20710 20637 20421 20565
Ease of Doing Business 122.00
115 114 114 114 123
Corruption Index 26.00
Points
25 26 26 26 26
Corruption Rank 151.00
154 155 156 156 164
Changes In Inventories 197.42
UGX billion
204 208 209 211 162
Competitiveness Index 3.70
Points
3.65 3.65 3.65 3.64 3.54
Competitiveness Rank 114.00
116 116 120 121 122
Composite Pmi 52.10
52.5 52.99 52.76 52.84 52.82
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Private Sector Credit 13316560.00
UGX Million
13492111 13595197 13654410 13686008 13719870
Consumer Spending 42035.00
UGX Billion
43567 44557 44515 44515 49781
Consumer Credit 2381767.75
SHS Million
2389736 2383894 2397769 2385344 2385394
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 80.96
mm
109 97.75 65.2 107 102
Temperature 23.42
celsius
22.39 22.92 24.07 23.61 23.6