Uganda - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.7 3.2 5.2 5.9 6 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 8.5 8.5 8 8 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -225.60 -254 -250 -249 -249 -249 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 36 36 37 37 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3725.00
3872 3900 3928 3955 4069
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent
0.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40
percent
5.9 6 4.7 4.7 5.9
GDP 25.89
USD Billion
27 27 28.5 28.5 30
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14514.00
UGX Billion
15370 15385 15196 15196 17189
GDP per capita 666.61
USD
684 673 691 691 690
GDP per capita PPP 1697.70
USD
1713 1715 1789 1789 1757
GDP Constant Prices 14437.68
UGX Billion
17251 16219 15116 15116 18120
GDP From Agriculture 3221.03
UGX Billion
3450 3297 3372 3372 3684
GDP From Construction 1024.32
UGX Billion
1019 1109 1072 1072 1239
GDP From Manufacturing 1183.72
UGX Billion
1222 1233 1239 1239 1377
GDP From Mining 253.14
UGX Billion
235 253 265 265 283
GDP From Public Administration 474.11
UGX Billion
514 530 496 496 592
GDP From Services 8202.18
UGX Billion
8409 8492 8588 8588 9488
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
Population 42.86
Million
43.3 43.3 42.81 42.8 42.7
Wages High Skilled 1777300.00
UGX/Month
1817300 1817300 1817300 1638361 1859522
Wages Low Skilled 430900.00
UGX/Month
440000 440000 440000 403887 445000
Living Wage Family 1408900.00
UGX/Month
1408900 1408900 1508900 1508900 1508900
Living Wage Individual 784800.00
UGX/Month
784800 784800 784800 784800 784800
Employment Rate 47.80
percent
46.03 44.26 45.45 46.65 73.88
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.7 3.2 5.2 5.9 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 171.50
Index Points
173 176 179 182 197
Food Inflation -1.70
percent
-0.8 2.5 4 4.2 -2.64
Import Prices 144.74
Index points
147 147 147 147 147
Producer Prices 186.16
Index Points
197 193 187 188 217
Producer Prices Change 0.90
percent
5.3 5 1.18 1.2 6.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.25 0.25 0.28 0.27 0.27
Export Prices 173.53
Index points
177 177 177 177 177
Cpi Housing Utilities 192.80
Index Points
194 194 194 195 195
Cpi Transportation 149.30
Index Points
151 152 152 152 152
Core Consumer Prices 165.10
Index Points
164 166 165 166 167
Core Inflation Rate 1.10
percent
0.46 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.31
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
8.5 8.5 8 8 6.75
Money Supply M2 15164.80
UGX Billion
15314 15418 15373 15444 15449
Money Supply M3 21477.10
UGX Billion
21569 21629 21658 21672 21685
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3310.50
USD Million
3276 3263 3266 3264 3265
Loans to Private Sector 12819.00
SHS Billion
13131 13313 13493 13669 15267
Deposit Interest Rate 9.70
percent
13.55 13.31 13.19 13.06 13.18
Money Supply M1 9010.90
UGX Billion
9000 9026 8985 9019 9016
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -225.60
USD Million
-254 -250 -249 -249 -249
Exports 321.58
USD Million
309 311 312 311 311
Imports 547.20
USD Million
563 561 561 561 561
Current Account -330.50
USD Million
-328 -325 -327 -325 -326
Current Account to GDP -5.40
percent
-7.32 -6.69 -6.69 -7 -5.62
Terms of Trade 119.90
Index Points
120 120 120 120 120
Tourist Arrivals 1323.00
Thousand
1300 1300 1325 1350 1500
Terrorism Index 4.32
4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60
percent
36 36 37 37 35
Government Budget -3.30
percent of GDP
-3.85 -3.95 -4 -4.05 -3.86
Military Expenditure 443.90
USD Million
436 434 435 437 473
Government Spending 5188.41
UGX billion
5495 5500 5432 5432 6145
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 56.05
Index Points
55.9 55.4 56.54 56.75 57.7
Leading Economic Index 214.21
Index Points
217 219 221 222 227
Internet Speed 2353.31
KBps
2714 2771 2828 2885 3417
IP Addresses 20690.00
IP
20225 20710 20637 20421 20565
Ease of Doing Business 122.00
115 114 114 114 123
Corruption Index 26.00
Points
25 26 26 26 26
Corruption Rank 151.00
154 155 156 156 164
Changes In Inventories 197.42
UGX billion
204 208 209 211 162
Competitiveness Index 3.70
Points
3.65 3.65 3.65 3.64 3.54
Competitiveness Rank 114.00
116 116 120 121 122
Composite Pmi 53.20
52.5 52.87 52.8 52.82 52.82
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Private Sector Credit 12875237.00
UGX Million
13161570 13229974 13265026 13282932 13301593
Consumer Spending 41062.00
UGX Billion
43485 43526 42992 42992 48629
Consumer Credit 2313128.30
SHS Million
2320538 2311014 2324579 2311801 2311834
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 80.96
mm
109 97.75 65.2 107 102
Temperature 23.42
celsius
22.39 22.92 24.07 23.61 23.6