This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.30 9.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 9.50 8.9 6.5 6.3 6 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 18.00 18 17.5 17 17 16 percent
Balance of Trade -847.60 -312 -480 -400 -931 -222 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 71.80 65 61 61 61 64 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 27.89
28.39 28.52 28.66 28.8 29.35
Stock Market 598.85
points
526 513 502 490 446
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.80
percent
3.7 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.9
GDP 112.15
USD Billion
113 115 115 115 116
GDP Constant Prices 244789.00
UAH Million
284556 224226 250909 250174 300128
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 47596.00
UAH Million
70444 37250 48786 48643 74300
GDP per capita 2991.63
USD
3100 3300 3300 3300 3500
GDP per capita PPP 7894.39
USD
7900 8000 8000 8000 8100
GDP From Agriculture 12591.00
UAH Million
34735 7541 12906 12868 36636
GDP From Construction 7308.00
UAH Million
9186 3950 7491 7469 9688
GDP From Manufacturing 28619.00
UAH Million
31748 26148 29334 29249 33485
GDP From Mining 11441.00
UAH Million
12418 11459 11727 11693 13098
GDP From Public Administration 13292.00
UAH Million
13382 13482 13624 13584 14115
GDP From Services 37291.00
UAH Million
35306 32608 38223 38111 37238
GDP From Transport 21757.00
UAH Million
22480 19232 22301 22236 23710
GDP From Utilities 774.00
UAH Million
757 670 793 791 798
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.30
percent
9.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.2
Unemployed Persons 287.10
Thousand
365 303 301 297 370
Wages 9042.00
UAH/Month
9000 8000 9015 9015 10000
Wage Growth 23.00
percent
13 21.81 21.5 21.33 6
Population 42.41
Million
42.02 41.93 41.85 41.76 38.37
Retirement Age Women 58.50
58.5 59 58.5 58.5 59.5
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90
percent
62.6 63.03 63.06 62.8 63.5
Living Wage Family 6610.00
UAH/Month
7000 8000 6134 6019 8000
Living Wage Individual 4690.00
UAH/Month
4447 4414 4397 4380 4438
Employed Persons 15836.30
Thousand
15963 15805 15768 16277 17084
Employment Rate 66.60
percent
65.72 65.8 66.87 66.88 66.41
Minimum Wages 3723.00
UAH/Month
3723 4400 3266 3088 5100
Wages High Skilled 5720.00
UAH/Month
5250 5250 4752 4919 5300
Wages Low Skilled 3680.00
UAH/Month
3592 3400 3021 3107 3700
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 9.50
percent
8.9 6.5 6.3 6 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.70
Index Points
110 108 106 108 123
Core Consumer Prices 108.80
Index Points
115 119 119 119 124
Core Inflation Rate 8.80
percent
5.4 8.98 9.01 9.03 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.70
percent
0.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2
Food Inflation 7.00
percent
10.5 9 8.7 6.9 6.9
CPI Transportation 103.10
Index Points
111 105 107 109 124
Export Prices 112.80
Index Points
111 112 112 112 112
Producer Prices 362.50
Index Points
395 423 433 446 572
Producer Prices Change 18.90
percent
22.5 24 24.5 23 18
Import Prices 112.00
Index Points
112 113 113 113 113
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 18.00
percent
18 17.5 17 17 16
Interbank Rate 18.38
percent
17.96 17.46 16.96 16.96 15.96
Money Supply M0 348284.00
UAH Million
352864 358076 363235 368361 413060
Money Supply M1 630845.00
UAH Million
644258 657629 670955 684221 800902
Money Supply M2 1245800.00
UAH Million
1263358 1283935 1304404 1324684 1500255
Money Supply M3 1248549.00
UAH Million
1266220 1286965 1307719 1328285 1505989
Foreign Exchange Reserves 167400.00
USD Million
157723 150253 149005 149079 149099
Banks Balance Sheet 1946174.00
UAH Million
1849906 1929158 1929167 1929169 2127762
Loans to Private Sector 801115.84
UAH Million
805535 816140 826794 837361 931136
Deposit Interest Rate 9.13
percent
9.13 8.63 8.13 8.13 7.13
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1012144.00
UAH Million
1016927 1015854 1016694 1016137 1016368
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -847.60
USD Million
-312 -480 -400 -931 -222
Exports 4036.80
USD Million
3980 4320 3850 3938 4670
Imports 4884.40
USD Million
5110 4800 4250 4869 5500
Current Account -3878.00
USD Million
-2308 -1868 -1966 -1998 -1990
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent
-3 -4 -4 -4 -3.5
External Debt 113751.00
USD Million
112898 112454 111905 111610 109712
Capital Flows -432.00
USD Million
-162 -489 -546 -564 -653
Gold Reserves 24.30
Tonnes
24.53 24.74 24.93 25.06 25.2
Foreign Direct Investment 667.00
USD Million
595 621 628 625 632
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K
31.98 31.98 31.98 31.98 31.98
Remittances 2819.00
USD Million
2885 2896 2946 2951 2971
Terms Of Trade 100.80
Index Points
99.27 99.39 99.25 99.28 99.26
Terrorism Index 6.56
6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56
Weapons Sales 240.00
USD Million
436 433 431 428 499
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 71.80
percent
65 61 61 61 64
Government Budget -1.40
percent of GDP
-2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2
Government Budget Value 7329.52
UAH Million
27310 17997 24933 27772 25006
Government Spending 55563.00
UAH Million
71500 53888 56952 56785 75413
Government Revenues 857158.93
UAH Million
505206 497658 572747 547474 545417
Government Debt 756271654.37
UAH Thousand
773791276 790540473 807025919 823248212 958076640
Fiscal Expenditure 841613.00
UAH Million
474376 479661 547814 519702 520411
Military Expenditure 3354.20
USD Million
3064 2989 2913 2837 2618
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production -1.30
percent
2.3 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.70
percent
1.5 6.5 0.8 2.1 1
Manufacturing Production -1.60
percent
-0.06 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19
Changes in Inventories -5383.00
UAH Million
15100 8898 8904 8903 16500
Internet Speed 12799.43
KBps
14828 15075 15316 15546 17381
IP Addresses 5156332.00
IP
5360883 5371868 5378505 5415236 5569160
Corruption Index 30.00
Points
30 30 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 130.00
130 130 130 130 130
Ease of Doing Business 71.00
71 69 68 67 65
Electricity Production 13942.50
Gigawatt-hour
13744 13521 13047 13201 13333
Competitiveness Index 57.03
Points
57.53 57.53 57.53 57.53 60.03
Competitiveness Rank 83.00
83 83 83 83 83
Business Confidence 117.20
Index Points
117 115 114 113 112
Cement Production 739.00
Thousands of Tonnes
827 834 838 841 847
Mining Production 0.70
percent
0.79 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.77
Steel Production 1787.00
Thousand Tonnes
1769 1767 1767 1769 1768
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 62.60
Index Points
63.58 63.28 63.29 63.3 63.3
Retail Sales Mom -5.00
percent
1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9
Retail Sales Yoy 6.90
percent
5 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.4
Consumer Spending 181290.00
UAH Million
224920 179353 185822 185278 237229
Bank Lending Rate 18.06
percent
17.21 16.71 16.21 16.21 15.21
Gasoline Prices 1.13
USD/Liter
1 0.94 0.89 0.83 0.7
Consumer Credit 148728.68
UAH Million
153737 158495 162127 164970 174115
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 1.52
celsius
2.31 -3.15 13.38 10.44 7.86
Precipitation 24.89
mm
41.25 34.25 46.95 46.95 47.24



Ukraine - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook