Ukraine - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 9.90 9.5 9 8 8.3 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 17.50 17.5 17.5 17 16.5 15 percent
Balance of Trade -632.00 -570 -1130 -480 -400 -830 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.9 82.9 84.4 84.4 86.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 26.43
26.78 27.14 27.51 27.88 29.4
Stock Market 504.16
points
425 397 371 347 264
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent
2.1 2.2 3.3 3.1 2.2
GDP 112.15
USD Billion
113 113 115 115 116
GDP Constant Prices 217484.00
UAH Million
292233 280440 224661 243037 293775
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 36130.00
UAH Million
48601 69425 37322 42989 72727
GDP per capita 2991.63
USD
3100 3100 3300 3300 3500
GDP per capita PPP 7894.39
USD
7900 7900 8000 8000 8100
GDP From Agriculture 7314.00
UAH Million
54752 34233 7555 10877 35861
GDP From Construction 3831.00
UAH Million
7233 9053 3957 7025 9483
GDP From Manufacturing 25362.00
UAH Million
26339 31289 26199 28941 32776
GDP From Mining 11114.00
UAH Million
11828 12238 11481 11719 12820
GDP From Public Administration 13077.00
UAH Million
13207 13189 13509 13477 13816
GDP From Services 31628.00
UAH Million
32893 34795 32672 37185 36450
GDP From Transport 18654.00
UAH Million
21877 22155 19270 21850 23208
GDP From Utilities 650.00
UAH Million
791 746 671 785 782
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.4 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2
Unemployed Persons 303.90
Thousand
306 365 325 318 370
Wages 8725.00
UAH/Month
7800 9000 8000 10494 10000
Wage Growth 27.56
percent
26.12 13 25.68 25.61 6
Population 42.41
Million
40.56 42.02 41.93 41.85 38.37
Retirement Age Women 58.50
58.5 58.5 59 59 59.5
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.90
percent
62.66 62.6 62.15 62.61 63.5
Living Wage Family 6440.00
UAH/Month
7000 7000 8000 6012 8000
Living Wage Individual 4840.00
UAH/Month
4510 4562 4526 4490 4301
Employed Persons 16034.90
Thousand
16187 15963 16439 16495 17084
Employment Rate 64.70
percent
65.72 65.06 65.13 65.68 65.4
Minimum Wages 3723.00
UAH/Month
3723 3723 4400 3266 5100
Wages High Skilled 5170.00
UAH/Month
5250 5250 5250 4398 5300
Wages Low Skilled 3230.00
UAH/Month
3592 3592 3400 2743 3700
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 9.90
percent
9.5 9 8 8.3 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.00
Index Points
112 110 109 108 124
Core Consumer Prices 109.00
Index Points
114 115 118 118 124
Core Inflation Rate 9.00
percent
6 5.4 8.14 8.09 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.87 1 0.97 0.98 0.6
Food Inflation 9.50
percent
13.2 10.5 9 9 6.9
CPI Transportation 100.50
Index Points
111 111 107 109 125
Export Prices 113.70
Index Points
113 113 113 113 113
Producer Prices 348.00
Index Points
341 358 377 382 417
Producer Prices Change 18.60
percent
11.8 11.1 10.5 9.8 7.3
Import Prices 112.20
Index Points
113 112 112 112 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 17.50
percent
17.5 17.5 17 16.5 15
Interbank Rate 17.41
percent
17.41 17.41 16.91 16.41 14.91
Money Supply M0 345003.00
UAH Million
349752 355281 360619 365925 417195
Money Supply M1 619489.00
UAH Million
619000 618992 618993 618992 618992
Money Supply M2 1196073.00
UAH Million
1217679 1235601 1253433 1271132 1439673
Money Supply M3 1209839.00
UAH Million
1225885 1244497 1263165 1281659 1457696
Foreign Exchange Reserves 17980.00
USD Million
17866 17867 17871 17872 17871
Banks Balance Sheet 1873459.00
UAH Million
1870932 1849906 1870927 1870927 2127762
Loans to Private Sector 762161.31
UAH Million
774172 782634 791015 799348 880006
Deposit Interest Rate 9.13
percent
9.13 9.13 8.63 8.13 6.63
Central Bank Balance Sheet 996363.00
UAH Million
991005 992617 991477 992184 991914
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -632.00
USD Million
-570 -1130 -480 -400 -830
Exports 4003.20
USD Million
4050 3980 4320 3850 4670
Imports 4635.20
USD Million
4620 5110 4800 4250 5500
Current Account -400.00
USD Million
-700 -280 -282 -282 -282
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent
-2.3 -2.3 -2 -2 -1.7
External Debt 116290.00
USD Million
117407 117255 117312 117533 118276
Capital Flows -327.00
USD Million
-1474 -1111 -853 -1144 -1091
Gold Reserves 24.30
Tonnes
24.39 24.63 24.84 25.02 25.27
Foreign Direct Investment 298.00
USD Million
563 542 556 571 579
Crude Oil Production 31.00
BBL/D/1K
30.6 30.62 30.61 30.61 30.61
Remittances 2584.00
USD Million
2655 2669 2590 2646 2662
Terms Of Trade 101.40
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Terrorism Index 6.56
6.25 5.92 5.65 5.39 2.57
Weapons Sales 240.00
USD Million
451 436 433 431 499
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00
percent
82.9 82.9 84.4 84.4 86.1
Government Budget -1.40
percent of GDP
-2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2
Government Budget Value 9175.97
UAH Million
28836 19641 19657 22344 21093
Government Spending 52268.00
UAH Million
51024 70466 53993 51619 73817
Government Revenues 468050.16
UAH Million
504735 452537 478051 480137 475973
Government Debt 747296295.09
UAH Thousand
773163707 792231280 811039156 829591239 1001785699
Fiscal Expenditure 454344.90
UAH Million
475898 434049 458395 457792 454880
Military Expenditure 3354.20
USD Million
3170 3064 2989 2913 2618
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 2.50
percent
2.59 1.1 2.47 2.5 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 3.10
percent
-0.08 0.9 -0.04 -0.03 0.8
Manufacturing Production 3.20
percent
1.7 1.8 1.79 1.79 1.79
Changes in Inventories -4508.00
UAH Million
34400 15100 8898 8904 16500
Internet Speed 12799.43
KBps
14586 14828 15075 15316 17381
IP Addresses 5156332.00
IP
5297454 5360883 5371868 5378505 5569160
Corruption Index 30.00
Points
29 29 29 29 30
Corruption Rank 130.00
130 129 128 127 124
Ease of Doing Business 76.00
70 70 69 67 62
Electricity Production 13942.50
Gigawatt-hour
12924 13744 13521 13047 13333
Competitiveness Index 4.11
Points
4.02 4.02 4.04 4.05 4.04
Competitiveness Rank 81.00
82 82 81 80 80
Business Confidence 118.30
Index Points
115 114 113 112 111
Cement Production 739.00
Thousands of Tonnes
818 827 834 838 847
Mining Production -1.90
percent
-1.27 -1.26 -1.26 -1.26 -1.26
Steel Production 1695.00
Thousand Tonnes
1758 1746 1749 1751 1750
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 65.60
Index Points
65.1 64.69 64.79 64.79 64.78
Retail Sales Mom -0.80
percent
-1.31 8.4 3.03 1.9 4.2
Retail Sales Yoy 6.30
percent
5.73 4.1 5.74 5.73 3.2
Consumer Spending 173960.00
UAH Million
192694 221667 179701 179401 232207
Bank Lending Rate 16.48
percent
16.48 16.48 15.98 15.48 13.98
Gasoline Prices 1.07
USD/Liter
1.01 0.96 0.9 0.85 0.48
Consumer Credit 136069.44
UAH Million
142350 146027 148794 150922 157441
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 17
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 1.52
celsius
18.01 2.31 -3.15 13.38 7.86
Precipitation 24.89
mm
56.02 41.25 34.25 46.95 47.24