The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK dropped to -44 in the last quarter of 2019 from -32 in the previous three-month period. It was the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2019, amid Brexit uncertainty. Also, optimism about export prospects for the year ahead worsened to the greatest extent since October 2001 and investment intentions deteriorated, with plans to spend on buildings, plant & machinery and training & retraining at their most negative since the financial crisis. New orders declined at the same pace as the previous quarter, still firms expect them to fall at a steeper rate in the three months to January. Quarterly headcount was down, dropping at its fastest since April 2010, with firms anticipating an even sharper fall the following quarter. Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -3.84 Index Points from 1958 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 55 Index Points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -75 Index Points in the first quarter of 1974.
Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -20.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at -8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around -2.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.