Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Currency 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.2
Stock Market (points) 7344.92 7271 7195 7120 7046 6900
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.63 0.76 0.81 0.86 0.91 1.03
Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.20 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 1.70 1.8 2 2.1 1.9 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -219.00 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3200 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -30045.00 -18700 -24600 -19200 -21200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.60 50.9 52.6 52 53.2 52.5
Business Confidence (Index Points) -32.00 -32 -20 -28 -12 -2
Manufacturing PMI 47.40 48.5 50.9 51.2 50.7 49.5
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -14.00 -14 -12 -17 -12 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.20 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.20 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2825.21 2910 2910 3020 3020 3020
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 513029.00 516980 517620 520701 520211 525384
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 537794.00 531918 533915 544785 545323 541924
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 85921.00 87388 86741 87884 87124 88042
GDP per capita (USD) 42986.00 43200 43200 43800 43800 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 40158.00 40500 40500 41100 41100 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2832.00 2903 2919 2880 2872 2962
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28324.00 28811 28625 29056 28721 29055
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45071.00 46183 45799 46730 45702 46486
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4815.00 4890 4846 4895 4882 4919
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20825.00 21219 21193 21123 21117 21511
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 367577.00 368827 370224 371979 372723 375777
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 20081.00 20044 20284 20337 20362 20588
Economic Activity Index (%) 1.00 0.9 1 1.2 1.2 1.5
Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1183.40 1190 1200 1205 1240 1290
Employment Rate (%) 76.10 76 76 75.8 75.7 75.8
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 28.20 24 26 32 19 22
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.20 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.20 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2
Labour Costs (Index Points) 105.50 109 110 109 109 113
Productivity (Index Points) 100.90 103 104 104 105 106
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 812.00 816 825 815 809 805
Wages (GBP/Week) 542.00 546 548 549 557 566
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 614.00 628 629 626 636 649
Wage Growth (%) 4.00 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.2
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.5 8.5
Population (Million) 66.19 66.36 66.57 66.95 66.95 66.95
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1282 1349 1346 1344 1393
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 886 929 926 925 959
Employment Change (Thousand) 31.00 65 150 125 55 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1230 1370 1366 1365 1414
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2199 2419 2412 2409 2496
Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 1.70 1.8 2 2.1 1.9 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 108.38 109 109 109 110 112
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 108.12 108 109 109 110 111
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.50 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 105.87 106 107 107 108 109
Producer Prices Change (%) 1.60 1.5 2 1.8 2 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.80 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 3 2.8 2.4 2 2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 116.10 116 117 117 118 120
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 107.20 107 108 107 109 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 114.90 113 114 113 115 116
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 114.80 114 116 116 116 118
Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1777353.00 1781000 1845400 1892000 1924000 1990800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2441750.00 2496000 2523800 2561000 2599000 2679100
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3896682.00 3920000 3980000 4010000 4062000 4110000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 588877.00 591000 599000 608000 611000 624200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2488339.00 2470868 2486238 2512610 2523176 2523532
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1
Private Debt to GDP (%) 224.00 222 222 219 219 219
Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -219.00 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3200 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -30045.00 -18700 -24600 -19200 -21200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2
Imports (GBP Million) 55300.00 58500 59100 59200 59400 59800
Exports (GBP Million) 55081.00 55200 55500 55900 56200 56700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6432146.00 6383000 6700000 6515000 6522000 6801000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 16784.00 16500 34200 12500 17100 30900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -15010.00 -9700 15600 25200 17500 12900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 1050.00 950 800 750 750 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2060.00 2700 2250 1950 2710 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3280.00 3490 2990 3480 4150 3040
Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) 2652.00 -2200 1900 5500 -4900 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 94259.00 92918 94034 94861 95579 95445
Government Spending to GDP (%) 38.50 38 38 38.4 38.4 38.4
Government Debt (GBP Million) 1971.00 -3200 -2840 -1120 -3780 -2460
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 67887.00 58900 59870 64980 58990 61870
Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.60 50.9 52.6 52 53.2 52.5
Business Confidence (Index Points) -32.00 -32 -20 -28 -12 -2
Manufacturing PMI 47.40 48.5 50.9 51.2 50.7 49.5
Industrial Production (%) -0.90 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.10 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.60 0.5 0.9 1.1 1 1.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.00 79.5 79.6 79.4 79.5 79.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -13.00 -20 -12 -18 -10 -8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4320.00 4800 4500 4700 5100 4600
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -68.80 -70 -50 -60 -40 -17
Car Production (Units) 108239.00 125000 75000 121100 106700 81000
Car Registrations 92573.00 332000 151000 465000 236000 154000
Small Business Sentiment -24.00 -28 -24 -16 -18 -7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.00 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
Private Investment (%) -0.50 -1.6 -0.8 0.1 1.1 0.5
Mining Production (%) -1.60 0.1 0.5 1 1.5 1.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 645.00 640 770 650 690 850
Composite Pmi 50.20 51.1 52.4 52.9 53.2 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 23402.00 26000 30100 27200 25200 30200
Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -14.00 -14 -12 -17 -12 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.20 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.70 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 340546.00 340429 341034 343307 345314 346149
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 346349.00 346492 349077 350852 351198 354313
Personal Savings (%) 4.40 5.1 6.2 6 6.5 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 87.10 87 87 85 85 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 897.00 882 692 619 1090 703
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.57 1.55 1.5 1.46 1.42 1.42
Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Housing Starts (units) 36630.00 36220 32440 33260 30890 34750
Construction Output (%) 0.30 0.6 0.5 1 1.4 1.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 402.71 404 409 415 419 427
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 67.31 65.4 69.5 71.9 74.5 75
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.00 62.5 62.5 62 62 62
Mortgage Applications (Units) 43342.00 44900 47200 49500 50200 52600
Construction Orders (%) -4.70 -3.2 -3.6 -2 1 1.5
Construction Pmi 45.00 46.4 49.9 52.4 53.7 52.1


UK GDP growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2019 as Brexit-related uncertainty and global trade tensions weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its lowest level since the mid-1970s and wage growth is likely to remain modest. Inflation is projected to near the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year and house price growth is seen average between 2-4 percent. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.