Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Currency 1.27 1.3 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26
Stock Market (points) 7277.73 7353 7277 7202 7128 6982
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.96 1.22 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.46
Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 2.10 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.5
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -5408.00 -2900 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -23707.00 -20500 -18700 -24600 -19200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4
Business Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -14 -10 -6 2
Manufacturing PMI 53.10 51.2 52.5 52.9 53.4 52.9
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.40 50.1 50.9 52.6 54 52.5
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -17 -12 -10 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2622.43 2890 2890 2890 2950 2950
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 514019.00 509543 512556 517620 520701 525384
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 527584.00 524964 527366 533915 534443 541924
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 87495.00 85853 86256 86488 88632 87785
GDP per capita (USD) 42514.49 43200 43200 43200 43800 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 39753.24 40700 40700 40700 41100 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2832.00 2884 2878 2919 2869 2962
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28576.00 28088 28564 28625 28947 29055
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 46254.00 45734 45787 45799 46855 46486
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4883.00 4749 4848 4846 4946 4919
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20967.00 20940 21038 21193 21240 21511
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 367030.00 363730 365671 370224 371801 375777
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 19930.00 19647 19873 20284 20189 20588
Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1085.20 1025 1090 1100 1105 1200
Employment Rate (%) 76.10 75.9 76 76 75.8 75.8
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 24.70 15 24 26 32 22
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.20 79.2 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.10 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 10.20 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9
Labour Costs (Index Points) 105.60 107 109 109 109 113
Productivity (Index Points) 101.70 102 103 104 104 106
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 846.00 845 836 825 815 805
Wages (GBP/Week) 528.00 537 543 547 546 565
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 603.00 618 625 628 624 648
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.5
Wage Growth (%) 3.20 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.2
Population (Million) 66.19 66.36 66.36 66.57 66.95 66.95
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1272 1274 1347 1346 1390
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 879 881 927 926 957
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.20 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 99.00 85 65 150 125 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1220 1222 1368 1366 1411
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2182 2186 2414 2412 2491
Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 2.10 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 107.60 108 109 109 109 112
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 107.40 107 108 109 109 111
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.80 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 105.28 106 107 108 108 110
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.10 1.6 1.8 2 2.1 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 0.70 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.60 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.1 2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 115.50 116 117 117 117 120
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 107.00 106 107 108 107 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 112.91 112 113 114 113 116
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 114.00 114 115 116 116 118
Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.5
Interbank Rate (%) 0.80 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1757584.00 1951000 2111000 2155400 2252000 2510800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2415570.00 2746000 2856000 2913800 2961000 3129100
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 171971.37 179000 185000 189000 189000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3884694.00 4080000 4220000 4350000 4410000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 592480.00 616000 625000 642000 651000 669200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2439096.00 2480000 2520000 2590000 2620000 2680000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1
Private Debt to GDP (%) 229.40 225 225 225 221 221
Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -5408.00 -2900 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -23707.00 -20500 -18700 -24600 -19200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2
Imports (GBP Million) 59973.00 57800 58500 59100 59200 59800
Exports (GBP Million) 54565.00 54900 55200 55500 55900 56700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6621492.00 6655000 6669000 6686000 6726000 6811000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 34972.00 16500 16500 38200 12500 36900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 15947.00 22500 -9700 15600 25200 15900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 1115.18 800 800 800 750 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 1460.00 2600 2700 2250 1950 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2640.00 4010 3490 2990 3480 3040
Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -2778.00 -4400 -2200 1900 5500 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 94208.00 92231 91884 93881 95433 95289
Government Spending to GDP (%) 38.50 38 38 38 38.4 38.4
Government Debt (GBP Million) -4967.00 -3210 -3200 -2840 -1120 -2460
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 61246.00 57420 58900 59870 64980 61870
Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -14 -10 -6 2
Manufacturing PMI 53.10 51.2 52.5 52.9 53.4 52.9
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.40 50.1 50.9 52.6 54 52.5
Industrial Production (%) 1.30 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.70 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 2.60 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.70 79.9 79.5 79.6 79.4 79.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -10.00 -6 -8 -5 -1 -4
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4188.00 4900 4800 4500 4700 4600
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -56.10 -48 -40 -36 -18 -12
Car Production (Units) 126195.00 136500 134000 115000 154100 125000
Car Registrations 161064.00 245000 362000 151000 475000 174000
Small Business Sentiment -13.00 -22 -28 -24 -16 -7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
Mining Production (%) 9.80 -1.4 0.1 0.5 1 1.5
Private Investment (%) 0.50 -2.2 -1.6 -0.8 0.1 0.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 735.00 640 640 770 650 850
Composite Pmi 50.90 50.2 51.1 52.4 52.9 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 27054.00 25100 26000 30100 27200 30200
Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -12 -17 -12 -10 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 5.20 3.4 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 339082.00 336711 337515 341034 343490 346149
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 344938.00 343216 343526 349077 349422 354313
Personal Savings (%) 4.80 4.9 5.1 6.2 6 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 1.75 1.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 86.50 87 87 87 85 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 549.00 1471 867 702 584 713
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.64 1.5 1.46 1.43 1.39 1.39
Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Housing Starts (units) 35660.00 43400 45100 41420 42500 44750
Construction Output (%) 3.20 0.5 0.6 0.5 1 1.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 765.82 769 775 785 789 795
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 62.34 70.2 75.4 79.1 80.6 86.6
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.00 62.5 62.5 62.5 62 62
Mortgage Applications (Units) 39980.00 45400 44900 47200 49500 52600
Construction Orders (%) -10.50 -7.7 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 1.5
Construction Pmi 50.50 50.6 51.2 52.6 53.4 54


UK GDP growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2019 as Brexit-related uncertainty, global trade tensions and higher interest rates weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its lowest level since the mid-1970s and wage growth is likely to remain modest. Inflation is projected to near the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year and house price growth is seen to average between 2-4 percent. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.