Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Stock Market (points) 6601.37 6484 6358 6235 6114 5872
Currency 1.41 1.4 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.35
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.71 0.75 0.8 0.87 0.93 1.06

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 -3.6 2.1 1.6 1 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -7.80 -6.8 17.5 7.5 3.2 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.10 6.8 8.1 7.9 7.4 5.5
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 1 1.6 1.9 1.8 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.20 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -6202.00 -3100 5850 4240 -2800 -2800
Current Account (GBP Million) -15734.00 -18700 -18900 -16200 -14400 -17600
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.80 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.70 110 110 110 110 112
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -3.3
Business Confidence (points) -22.00 -8 -10 -16 -8 -6
Services PMI (points) 49.70 51 54 53.2 52 52.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.90 51.2 55 53.6 52 52.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -23.00 -16 -14 -16 -14 -10
Retail Sales MoM (%) -8.20 1 -1.6 -0.8 0.6 0.6
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 18
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 -3.6 2.1 1.6 1 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -7.80 -6.8 17.5 7.5 3.2 2
GDP (USD Billion) 2829.11 2460 2460 2460 2460 2990
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 502253.00 492363 504332 535252 513842 524119
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 528306.00 505797 536828 567929 545212 556116
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 92583.00 88624 86238 93048 89326 91112
GDP per capita (USD) 43688.40 40100 40100 40100 40100 42500
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 46699.30 45200 45200 45200 45200 45910
Economic Activity Index (%) -6.50 -0.3 17.5 12.6 3.2 2
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2917.00 3040 3604 3497 3357 3424
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 30111.00 28242 23975 30974 29735 30330
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 44893.00 42509 42467 46442 44584 45476
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4522.00 4721 5812 5295 5084 5185
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 24652.00 22602 28699 26407 25351 25858
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 357971.00 349345 360273 378009 362888 370146
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 16952.00 17326 15788 17560 16858 17195

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.10 6.8 8.1 7.9 7.4 5.5
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32393.00 29100 29750 29950 30100 32200
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2597.10 3200 3000 2700 2550 1850
Employment Rate (%) 75.00 75.6 75.7 75.8 76 76.5
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) -20.00 150 -86 -40 -32 -26
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 78.4 78.6 78.9 78.8 78.8
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.50 16.3 17.6 17.4 16.9 15.4
Productivity (points) 104.50 98.6 99.1 99.5 100 101
Labour Costs (points) 109.60 111 117 112 111 113
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 599.00 510 560 640 690 750
Wages (GBP/Week) 571.00 553 542 573 580 589
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 629.00 632 606 636 639 649
Wage Growth (%) 4.70 2.8 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.5
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.72 8.72 9.15 9.15 9.15 9.5
Population (Million) 66.65 67.33 67.33 67.33 67.33 67.71
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 30.10 29 30 29 31 32
Employment Change (Thousand) -114.00 -84 36 25 50 30

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 1 1.6 1.9 1.8 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.20 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 109.00 110 110 111 111 113
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 108.95 110 110 111 111 113
Core Consumer Prices (points) 109.60 110 111 111 112 114
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.40 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 2
GDP Deflator (points) 108.98 105 113 110 111 113
Producer Prices Change (%) -0.20 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.9
Food Inflation (%) -0.70 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.9
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.30 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9
Retail Price Index (%) 1.40 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8
Producer Prices (points) 109.00 109 109 109 110 112
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 105.00 107 108 108 107 109
CPI Transportation (points) 114.30 113 113 115 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 110.90 110 112 111 112 114

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Interbank Rate (%) 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 92324.00 89400 88700 91500 95100 102900
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2182630.00 2120800 2159000 2198000 2250800 2360800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2811560.00 2819100 2859100 2876000 2899100 2989100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3263167.00 3380000 3480000 3522000 3550000 3650000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4237483.00 4450000 4510000 4550000 4590000 4700000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 921709.00 928200 937200 951600 945200 936100
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2642975.00 2820000 2860000 2860000 2880000 2920000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Lending Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Private Debt to GDP (%) 224.00 230 230 230 230 227

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -6202.00 -3100 5850 4240 -2800 -2800
Current Account (GBP Million) -15734.00 -18700 -18900 -16200 -14400 -17600
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.80 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6
Imports (GBP Million) 52814.00 45900 47200 49100 51500 55500
Exports (GBP Million) 46612.00 51750 51440 52000 52700 54700
External Debt (GBP Million) 7217761.00 7651000 7754000 7702000 7697000 7627000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 32374.00 21900 18900 16400 12900 16600
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -2748.00 15900 16200 -10400 9900 10500
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 884.00 750 800 800 800 800
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -14315.00 -10200 -13260 -12200 -10800 -14800
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 780.00 1510 1850 1800 1940 2240
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 1446.00 2500 2800 2650 2440 2910

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.70 110 110 110 110 112
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -3.3
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -8750.00 -4460 -22600 -32200 -10440 -3840
Government Spending (GBP Million) 104228.00 108880 109000 108200 109500 111200
Government Spending to GDP (%) 39.30 43 43 43 43 40
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2114.60 2450 2110 1990 2010 2200
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 80287.00 54320 49800 51200 62270 65270
Asylum Applications (persons) 3160.00 1320 1380 1250 1910 1810

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 18
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 25.8 27.8 27.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 14 14 14 12 14

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Business Confidence (points) -22.00 -8 -10 -16 -8 -6
Services PMI (points) 49.70 51 54 53.2 52 52.9
Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.90 51.2 55 53.6 52 52.6
Industrial Production (%) -3.30 1.5 16 5.1 5 2
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.20 -0.2 0.8 0.6 1 1
Manufacturing Production (%) -2.50 2 19 5.9 6 2
Capacity Utilization (%) 73.90 75 78 77 75 82
New Orders (GBP Million) 9923.00 11280 12500 13200 12180 14180
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -24.00 -2 10 9 12 8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 3071.00 4200 4500 4200 5800 4400
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 116632.00 108000 114000 112200 115000 122000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 35.80 25 16 9 5 1
Car Production (Units) 71403.00 74000 108000 119200 87000 99000
Car Registrations 90249.00 264000 185000 289000 136000 169000
Small Business Sentiment -7.00 -2 -2 15 6 6
Leading Economic Index (%) 1.00 -3.6 2.1 1.6 1 0.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 710.00 850 850 800 800 850
Private Investment (%) 1.30 3.6 1.1 0.6 2.5 0.8
Mining Production (%) -14.00 2.2 18.7 6.2 6.2 2.3
Composite PMI (points) 49.80 51.4 54.5 53.2 52 52

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) -23.00 -16 -14 -16 -14 -10
Retail Sales MoM (%) -8.20 1 -1.6 -0.8 0.6 0.6
Retail Sales YoY (%) -5.90 2.2 7.4 1.4 1.5 2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 318772.00 316333 310053 337813 324301 330787
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 371357.00 341619 414594 399209 383240 390905
Personal Savings (%) 16.50 15 12 13 10 7
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.10 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 87.70 92 92 92 92 88
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -45.00 -60 12 9 7 -4
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) -965.00 -2898 -777 -898 -996 -1016
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.63 1.55 1.47 1.4 1.33 1.26

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022
Housing Starts (units) 35710.00 30250 29460 30900 32330 38710
Construction Output (%) -3.70 1.4 21 6.5 5.1 2.5
Housing Index (points) 434.50 432 415 419 418 425
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 103.00 95 76 62 66 78
Home Loans (GBP Million) 5586.00 2200 2500 2900 3600 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.5
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 458.32 452 436 438 440 445
Construction Orders (%) -12.90 1.8 37 4.5 5 5
Construction PMI (points) 49.20 51 55 53.2 50 51


This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.