Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Currency 1.25 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.22
Stock Market (points) 7514.93 7351 7278 7205 7133 6991
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.72 0.87 0.9 0.94 0.98 1.06
Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Inflation Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 2 2.1 1.9 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1.25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2324.00 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3200 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -30045.00 -18700 -24600 -19200 -21200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Business Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -14 -10 -6 -2 2
Manufacturing PMI 48.00 49.9 50.9 51.2 50.7 49.5
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.20 50.9 52.6 52 53.2 52.5
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.00 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 2825.21 2910 2910 3020 3020 3020
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 514019.00 516980 517620 520701 521215 525384
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 537794.00 531918 533915 544785 545323 541924
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 86756.00 87388 86741 87884 87971 88042
GDP per capita (USD) 42986.00 43200 43200 43800 43800 43800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 40158.00 40500 40500 41100 41100 41100
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 2843.00 2903 2919 2880 2883 2962
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 28683.00 28811 28625 29056 29085 29055
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 46130.00 46183 45799 46730 46776 46486
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 4832.00 4890 4846 4895 4900 4919
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 20852.00 21219 21193 21123 21144 21511
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 367205.00 368827 370224 371979 372346 375777
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 20076.00 20044 20284 20337 20357 20588
Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1142.10 1190 1200 1205 1240 1290
Employment Rate (%) 76.00 76 76 75.8 75.7 75.8
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 38.00 24 26 32 19 22
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.00 10 10 10.2 10.4 11.1
Labour Costs (Index Points) 105.50 109 109 109 109 113
Productivity (Index Points) 101.20 103 104 104 105 106
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 827.00 836 825 815 809 805
Wages (GBP/Week) 536.00 543 547 549 554 565
Wage Growth (%) 3.40 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 615.00 625 628 626 636 648
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.21 8.5 8.5
Population (Million) 66.19 66.36 66.57 66.95 66.95 66.95
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.5 65.5 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1274 1347 1346 1344 1390
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 881 927 926 925 957
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.10 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 28.00 65 150 125 55 110
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1222 1368 1366 1365 1411
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2186 2414 2412 2409 2491
Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 2 2.1 1.9 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 107.90 109 109 109 110 112
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 107.60 108 109 109 110 111
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.80 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 105.25 107 108 108 109 110
Producer Prices Change (%) 1.60 1.8 2 2.1 2 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.60 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.60 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 2
Producer Prices (Index Points) 115.80 117 117 117 118 120
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 107.10 107 108 107 109 110
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 113.00 113 114 113 115 116
Core Producer Prices (Index Points) 114.20 115 116 116 116 118
Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.76 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.79 0.85
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1769552.00 1831000 1885400 1892000 1944000 1990800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2433285.00 2496000 2523800 2561000 2599000 2689100
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3852919.00 3920000 3980000 4010000 4062000 4110000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 593867.00 605000 611000 616000 622000 630200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2480613.00 2471019 2486470 2512861 2515342 2523767
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1
Private Debt to GDP (%) 224.00 222 222 219 219 219
Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -2324.00 -3300 -3600 -3300 -3200 -3100
Current Account (GBP Million) -30045.00 -18700 -24600 -19200 -21200 -22800
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.90 -4 -4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2
Imports (GBP Million) 56705.00 58500 59100 59200 59400 59800
Exports (GBP Million) 54381.00 55200 55500 55900 56200 56700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6432146.00 6383104 6700950 6515764 6522196 6801464
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 16784.00 16500 38200 12500 17100 36900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -15010.00 -9700 15600 25200 17500 12900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 1117.00 800 800 750 750 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 1650.00 2700 2250 1950 2710 2490
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2940.00 3490 2990 3480 4150 3040
Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 84.70 83.4 83.4 82.5 82.5 82.5
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.00 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -4426.00 -2200 1900 5500 -4900 2100
Government Spending (GBP Million) 93644.00 92918 94034 94861 94955 95445
Government Spending to GDP (%) 38.50 38 38 38.4 38.4 38.4
Government Debt (GBP Million) -6500.00 -3200 -2840 -1120 -3780 -2460
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 58697.00 58900 59870 64980 58990 61870
Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12
Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Business Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -14 -10 -6 -2 2
Manufacturing PMI 48.00 49.9 50.9 51.2 50.7 49.5
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.20 50.9 52.6 52 53.2 52.5
Industrial Production (%) 0.90 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.8
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.40 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.00 0.5 0.9 1.1 1 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.70 79.5 79.6 79.4 79.5 79.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -15.00 -8 -5 -7 -10 -8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4188.00 4800 4500 4700 5100 4600
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -62.90 -40 -36 -18 -20 -12
Car Production (Units) 116035.00 134000 115000 154100 138700 125000
Car Registrations 223421.00 362000 151000 475000 246000 174000
Small Business Sentiment -13.00 -28 -24 -16 -18 -7
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
Mining Production (%) 4.00 0.1 0.5 1 1.5 1.5
Private Investment (%) 0.40 -1.6 -0.8 0.1 1.1 0.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 650.00 640 770 650 690 850
Composite Pmi 49.70 51.1 52.4 52.9 53.2 52.8
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 26136.00 26000 30100 27200 25200 30200
Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) -13.00 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.00 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.80 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 338901.00 340429 341034 343307 343646 346149
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 346349.00 346492 349077 350852 351198 354313
Personal Savings (%) 4.40 5.1 6.2 6 6.5 7.9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 2.5 1.75 1.75 1.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 87.10 87 87 85 85 85
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 822.00 882 692 588 1513 703
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.62 1.66 1.62 1.57 1.53 1.53
Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Housing Starts (units) 38290.00 45100 34420 42500 43000 36750
Construction Output (%) 1.70 0.6 0.5 1 1.4 1.2
Housing Index (Index Points) 767.40 775 785 789 791 795
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 65.41 75.4 74.5 77.9 78.5 80.9
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.00 62.5 62.5 62 62 62
Mortgage Applications (Units) 42384.00 44900 47200 49500 50200 52600
Construction Orders (%) 6.60 12.6 2.9 -2 1 1.5
Construction Pmi 43.10 51.2 52.6 53.4 53.7 54


UK GDP growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2019 as Brexit-related uncertainty, global trade tensions and higher interest rates weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its lowest level since the mid-1970s and wage growth is likely to remain modest. Inflation is projected to near the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year and house price growth is seen to average between 2-4 percent. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.