Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Currency 1.30 1.31 1.3 1.29 1.29 1.27
Stock Market (points) 7402.49 7191 7122 7055 6987 6852
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.57 0.56 0.61 0.65 0.7 0.8

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.10 0.8 1.2 1.2 1 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4
Inflation Rate (%) 1.80 1.4 1.8 2 1.9 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 0.75
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) 7715.00 -8300 -7200 -6200 -3100 -2800
Current Account (GBP Million) -15860.00 -19200 -21200 -16700 -22800 -20800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.30 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.4
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.80 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.3 78.2
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8
Services PMI (points) 53.30 52 50.2 51.9 52.5 51.9
Business Confidence (points) 23.00 23 12 -8 -14 -2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 49.9 50.7 50.5 49.5 50.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -9.00 -9 -12 -8 -6 -2
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.90 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.10 0.8 1.2 1.2 1 1.4
GDP (USD Billion) 2855.30 3020 3020 3020 3020 3090
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 523588.00 522850 522977 525557 528824 536227
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 548011.00 541607 548331 550203 553491 561240
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 86399.00 88310 87942 88196 87263 88485
GDP per capita (USD) 42986.00 43800 43800 43800 43800 44100
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 40158.00 41100 41100 41100 41100 41400
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 3023.00 3067 3056 3042 3053 3096
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 29738.00 29626 29393 29711 30035 30456
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 45317.00 47452 46105 46009 45770 46411
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 3016.00 3098 3066 3117 3046 3089
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 22470.00 22480 22561 22551 22695 23012
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 374721.00 372612 373966 375920 378468 383767
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 19731.00 19762 19744 19807 19928 20207
Economic Activity Index (%) 1.20 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32934.00 32650 32650 32650 32700 32900
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1234.50 1290 1340 1360 1410 1550
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8544.00 8550 8550 8550 8500 8500
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24357.00 24100 24100 24100 24200 24400
Employment Rate (%) 76.30 75.8 75.7 75.7 75.8 75.5
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 5.50 32 19 32 22 25
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.50 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.5 79.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.90 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.20 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1
Labour Costs (points) 109.40 111 113 113 113 117
Productivity (points) 101.60 102 102 101 102 102
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 805.00 815 809 802 805 805
Wages (GBP/Week) 544.00 549 557 560 561 582
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 622.00 626 636 639 642 665
Wage Growth (%) 2.90 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.6
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.21 8.21 8.72 8.72 8.72 9
Population (Million) 66.19 66.95 66.95 66.95 66.95 67.33
Retirement Age Women 65.50 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.5 66 66 66 66
Living Wage Family (GBP/Month) 1300.00 1346 1344 1344 1342 1390
Living Wage Individual (GBP/Month) 895.00 926 925 925 924 957
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.00 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change (Thousand) 180.00 40 55 51 110 50
Wages Low Skilled (GBP/Month) 1320.00 1366 1364 1364 1362 1411
Wages High Skilled (GBP/Month) 2330.00 2412 2408 2408 2405 2491

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 1.80 1.4 1.8 2 1.9 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 108.20 108 110 111 111 113
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 108.20 108 110 111 111 113
Core Consumer Prices (points) 108.00 109 109 110 111 114
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.60 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.3
GDP Deflator (points) 106.47 107 108 108 108 111
Producer Prices Change (%) 1.10 1 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.40 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 2
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.50 2.4 2 2.1 2 2
Producer Prices (points) 116.10 117 117 118 120 123
Retail Price Index (%) 2.70 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 106.30 106 109 109 108 111
CPI Transportation (points) 112.00 112 115 114 114 117
Core Producer Prices (points) 114.50 116 116 116 118 121

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.75 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.95
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 83243.00 111500 111500 111500 119400 126400
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 1804119.00 1892000 1924000 1946000 1990800 2090800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2460138.00 2561000 2599000 2623000 2679100 2829100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 2889672.00 3321000 3321000 3321000 3420000 3420000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 3982553.00 4010000 4062000 4091000 4110000 4290000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 580694.00 608000 611000 619000 624200 636200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2530428.00 2486848 2498813 2540550 2555732 2591513
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75
Lending Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1 1 1.25
Private Debt to GDP (%) 224.00 219 219 219 219 217

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) 7715.00 -8300 -7200 -6200 -3100 -2800
Current Account (GBP Million) -15860.00 -19200 -21200 -16700 -22800 -20800
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.30 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.4
Imports (GBP Million) 56630.00 68200 69400 70620 67800 64500
Exports (GBP Million) 64345.00 59900 62200 64450 62750 58700
External Debt (GBP Million) 6940251.00 7515000 7622000 7791000 7801000 7917000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 35873.00 12500 17100 12600 30900 27900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 15164.00 25200 17500 -12300 12900 9900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 1019.00 800 800 750 750 750
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2320.00 1950 2710 2850 2490 2540
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 3430.00 3000 3570 3190 3040 3140
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) 845.00 -11800 -12000 -10600 -13200 -10800

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.80 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.3 78.2
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -493.00 5500 -4900 -2700 2100 1800
Government Spending (GBP Million) 101506.00 98098 99535 99814 102521 103956
Government Spending to GDP (%) 39.30 40 40 40 40 39.9
Government Debt (GBP Million) 10538.00 -1100 -3800 -3400 -2460 -2440
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 62220.00 64980 58990 60500 61870 62270
Asylum Applications (persons) 4415.00 2590 2590 2590 2210 2010

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 12.00 12 12 12 12 12

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Services PMI (points) 53.30 52 50.2 51.9 52.5 51.9
Business Confidence (points) 23.00 23 12 -8 -14 -2
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 49.9 50.7 50.5 49.5 50.6
Industrial Production (%) -1.80 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.10 0.2 -0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production (%) -2.50 1.1 1 0.9 1.2 1.4
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.20 79.4 79.5 79.4 79.5 79.1
New Orders (GBP Million) 11353.00 16100 16100 16100 16480 17180
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -18.00 -18 -10 -12 -8 -4
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4284.00 4700 5100 4900 4600 4800
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 113724.00 116000 116000 116000 115000 118000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -39.00 -60 -40 -20 -17 -12
Car Production (Units) 73080.00 121100 106700 121000 81000 91000
Car Registrations 149279.00 465000 236000 341000 154000 176000
Small Business Sentiment 36.00 -16 -18 -12 -7 -6
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
Private Investment (%) -1.00 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7
Mining Production (%) -3.90 -4 -2 1.2 1.5 1.7
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 558.00 650 690 600 850 850
Composite Pmi (points) 53.30 53.6 50.2 52.9 50 50
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 28902.00 27200 25200 26400 30200 30400

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) -9.00 -9 -12 -8 -6 -2
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.90 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 0.80 1.9 2.2 2 2.2 2.2
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 342674.00 340542 342648 343848 346101 350946
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 351816.00 350828 355103 353223 355334 360309
Personal Savings (%) 5.50 6.5 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.5
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 84.00 85 85 85 85 86
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) 0.00 -8 -6 -4 -1 1
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1218.00 584 1127 721 713 725
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.66 1.48 1.52 1.55 1.61 1.61

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Housing Starts (units) 39510.00 33260 30890 32460 34750 38750
Construction Output (%) 5.00 1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.5
Housing Index (points) 414.00 409 412 416 420 428
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 67.24 67 69.5 72.5 75 80
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4550.00 3700 4000 4200 3800 4500
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.10 62 62 62 62 61.5
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 430.69 434 436 438 440 446
Mortgage Applications (Units) 46815.00 43700 45200 49500 52600 54400
Construction Orders (%) -0.40 -2 1 1.6 1.5 2
Construction Pmi (points) 48.40 49.1 53.7 52.5 52.1 53.6


UK GDP growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2019 as Brexit-related uncertainty and global trade tensions weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its lowest level since the mid-1970s and wage growth is likely to remain modest. Inflation is projected to near the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year and house price growth is seen average between 2-4 percent. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.