Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Stock Market (points) 6451.20 6211 6091 5972 5856 5624
Currency 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.3 1.28
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.33 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.5

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 15.50 -2.6 1 2.1 1.6 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -9.60 -6.4 -2.3 17.5 7.5 3.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.80 7.5 7.8 8.1 7.9 7.4
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) 613.00 4950 5850 4240 2900 1200
Current Account (GBP Million) -2764.00 -12800 -18700 -18900 -16200 -14400
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.80 -4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.70 100 96 96 96 96
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -11 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6
Business Confidence (points) 0.00 -14 -12 -10 -16 -8
Services PMI (points) 45.80 49.2 51 54 53.2 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.20 54.5 51.2 55 53.6 52
Consumer Confidence (points) -33.00 -28 -16 -14 -16 -14
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.20 1.5 1 -1.6 -0.8 0.6
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 15.50 -2.6 1 2.1 1.6 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -9.60 -6.4 -2.3 17.5 7.5 3.2
GDP (USD Billion) 2827.11 2280 2460 2460 2460 2460
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 490861.00 508870 517761 499330 527676 525154
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 464971.00 512950 528539 546341 499844 529364
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 85755.00 89812 92787 87532 92187 92686
GDP per capita (USD) 43688.40 39800 40100 40100 40100 40100
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 46699.30 44100 45200 45200 45200 45200
Economic Activity Index (%) -8.40 -7.4 -2.3 17.5 12.6 3.2
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 3242.00 3103 3186 3605 3298 3202
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 27526.00 29105 29520 22817 20875 30036
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 42784.00 43590 44662 42359 38754 44984
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 5073.00 4921 4967 5886 5385 5079
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 24439.00 22588 23628 28577 26145 23310
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 346613.00 361182 367164 356702 326344 372740
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 16360.00 18391 18345 15506 14187 18979

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.80 7.5 7.8 8.1 7.9 7.4
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32507.00 28250 29100 29750 29950 30100
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2633.70 3850 2500 2300 2100 1750
Employment Rate (%) 75.30 75.1 75.6 75.7 75.8 76
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) -29.80 22 -66 -42 -16 -32
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 79.10 78.2 78.4 78.6 78.9 78.8
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.90 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.5
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 14.10 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.2 16.7
Productivity (points) 103.00 99 98.6 99.1 99.5 100
Labour Costs (points) 131.40 102 107 131 133 104
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 525.00 470 510 560 550 600
Wages (GBP/Week) 553.00 532 535 528 559 538
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 622.00 608 611 592 628 614
Wage Growth (%) 1.30 -2 -0.6 -0.2 1 1.1
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 8.72 8.72 8.72 9.15 9.15 9.15
Population (Million) 66.65 66.95 67.33 67.33 67.33 67.33
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 28.50 28 29 30 29 31
Employment Change (Thousand) -164.00 10 42 36 25 50

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 0.70 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.00 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 109.10 109 110 110 111 111
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 109.05 109 110 110 111 111
Core Consumer Prices (points) 109.90 111 110 111 111 114
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.50 1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6
GDP Deflator (points) 109.12 103 106 114 114 105
Producer Prices Change (%) -1.40 -0.8 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.6
Food Inflation (%) 0.60 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 2 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
Retail Price Index (%) 1.30 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5
Producer Prices (points) 107.90 120 116 116 116 123
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 104.70 107 107 108 108 109
CPI Transportation (points) 113.10 113 113 113 115 115
Core Producer Prices (points) 110.30 118 115 116 116 121

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.10 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Interbank Rate (%) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 88720.00 86800 89400 88700 91500 95100
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2083871.00 2090800 2120800 2159000 2198000 2250800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 2726605.00 2779100 2819100 2859100 2876000 2899100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3211756.00 3380000 3380000 3480000 3522000 3550000
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4295471.00 4410000 4450000 4510000 4550000 4590000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 886061.00 875200 871200 795200 799600 811200
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2642975.00 2850000 2820000 2860000 2860000 2880000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Lending Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Private Debt to GDP (%) 224.00 232 230 230 230 230

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) 613.00 4950 5850 4240 2900 1200
Current Account (GBP Million) -2764.00 -12800 -18700 -18900 -16200 -14400
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.80 -4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4
Imports (GBP Million) 49150.00 45800 45900 47200 49100 51500
Exports (GBP Million) 49763.00 50750 51750 51440 52000 52700
External Debt (GBP Million) 7265322.00 7551000 7551000 7754000 7702000 7697000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 28806.00 9900 21900 18900 16400 12900
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -5474.00 -12900 15900 16200 -10400 9900
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.30 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 935.00 750 750 800 800 800
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -9348.00 -13200 -10200 -13260 -12200 -10800
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 780.00 1490 1510 1850 1800 1940
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 1446.00 2100 2500 2800 2650 2440

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 80.70 100 96 96 96 96
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.80 -11 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6 -7.6
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -22318.00 -20460 -4460 -22600 -32200 -10440
Government Spending (GBP Million) 92384.00 110200 108880 109000 108200 109500
Government Spending to GDP (%) 39.30 49 43 43 43 43
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2076.80 2500 2450 2110 1990 2010
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 58832.00 33870 34320 36800 38200 42270
Asylum Applications (persons) 3160.00 1270 1320 1380 1250 1910

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 25.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 12 14 14 14 12

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Business Confidence (points) 0.00 -14 -12 -10 -16 -8
Services PMI (points) 45.80 49.2 51 54 53.2 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.20 54.5 51.2 55 53.6 52
Industrial Production (%) -6.30 -5.2 4.5 16 5.1 5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.50 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.6 1
Manufacturing Production (%) -7.90 -6.6 5 19 5.9 6
Capacity Utilization (%) 73.90 71 75 78 77 75
New Orders (GBP Million) 11100.00 9480 11280 12500 13200 12180
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -40.00 -27 5 10 9 12
Bankruptcies (Companies) 2672.00 6600 4200 4500 4200 5800
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 126492.00 107000 108000 114000 112200 115000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -2.90 2 5 2 9 5
Car Production (Units) 114732.00 65000 65000 108000 119200 87000
Car Registrations 140945.00 114000 264000 185000 289000 136000
Small Business Sentiment -2.00 -12 -12 -2 15 6
Leading Economic Index (%) 15.50 -2.6 1 2.1 1.6 1
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 545.00 850 850 850 800 850
Private Investment (%) 8.80 -2 -2 1.1 0.6 2.5
Mining Production (%) -9.90 -3.2 2.5 18.7 6.2 6.2
Composite Pmi (points) 47.40 50 51.4 54.5 53.2 52
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 29731.00 30200 30200 30200 30200 30400

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) -33.00 -28 -16 -14 -16 -14
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.20 1.5 1 -1.6 -0.8 0.6
Retail Sales YoY (%) 5.80 -2.2 2.2 7.4 1.4 1.5
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 304469.00 326756 330736 303524 327304 337212
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 354494.00 345781 358210 416530 381081 356846
Personal Savings (%) 28.10 17.5 15 12 13 10
Bank Lending Rate (%) 1.10 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 84.50 95 92 92 92 92
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -25.00 -4 5 12 9 7
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) -622.00 713 -3060 -580 -669 725
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.48 1.45 1.33 1.26 1.2 1.37

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Housing Starts (units) 15930.00 27750 30250 29460 30900 32330
Construction Output (%) -10.00 -11.6 4.5 21 6.5 5.1
Housing Index (points) 431.90 402 406 410 415 418
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 91.45 48 52.5 58 62 66
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4827.00 1800 2200 2500 2900 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 62 61.5 61.5 61.5 61.5
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 454.49 426 430 436 438 440
Construction Orders (%) 0.60 -2 1.8 37 4.5 5
Construction Pmi (points) 53.10 44 51 55 53.2 50


This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.