UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target until the end of the year, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1 1.25 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade -27.00 -1400 -1700 -1900 -2300 -1800 GBP Million
Government Debt to GDP 85.30 85 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.30
1.29 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.24
Stock Market 7050.27
points
7435 7368 7300 7234 6975
Government Bond 10Y 1.51
percent
1.63 1.68 1.74 1.8 2.04
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
GDP 2622.43
USD Billion
2850 3060 3060 3060 3170
GDP Constant Prices 509120.00
GBP Million
510081 511057 513115 516757 526016
Gross National Product 515919.00
GBP Million
512459 518927 523142 523658 528469
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 85936.00
GBP Million
87596 86824 86417 87225 90333
GDP per capita 42514.49
USD
42800 43200 43200 43200 43800
GDP per capita PPP 39753.24
USD
40200 40700 40700 40700 41100
GDP From Agriculture 2927.00
GBP Million
2993 2960 2963 2971 3087
GDP From Construction 28672.00
GBP Million
28647 28229 28464 29102 29542
GDP From Manufacturing 45701.00
GBP Million
46423 46414 46075 46387 47873
GDP From Mining 4692.00
GBP Million
4524 4646 4679 4762 4665
GDP From Public Administration 20726.00
GBP Million
20989 21030 21041 21037 21645
GDP From Services 362756.00
GBP Million
362731 364117 366292 368197 374063
GDP From Transport 19568.00
GBP Million
19670 19476 19714 19862 20285
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8
Employed Persons 32409.00
Thousand
32510 32580 32620 32710 33700
Unemployed Persons 967.70
Thousand
942 951 955 964 1015
Part Time Employment 8475.00
Thousand
8460 8420 8400 8420 8190
Full Time Employment 23934.00
Thousand
24050 24160 24220 24290 25510
Employment Rate 75.50
percent
75.2 75.2 75.1 75 74.6
Claimant Count Change 20.20
Thousand
10 5 7 11 6
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.80
percent
80 79.9 79.9 80.2 81
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent
11.2 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.9
Labour Costs 103.90
Index Points
106 106 107 108 110
Productivity 101.20
Index Points
103 103 104 105 108
Job Vacancies 845.00
Thousand
815 820 819 814 792
Wages 524.00
GBP/Week
522 524 526 529 539
Wages in Manufacturing 605.00
GBP/Week
603 605 607 609 619
Wage Growth 3.00
percent
2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8
Minimum Wages 7.83
GBP/Hour
7.83 8 8 8 8.5
Population 66.19
Million
66.19 66.36 66.36 66.36 66.98
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66
Living Wage Family 1300.00
GBP/Month
1350 1440 1440 1440 1520
Living Wage Individual 895.00
GBP/Month
1170 1290 1290 1290 1370
Average Weekly Hours 32.10
Hours
32.2 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.3
Employment Change 23.00
Thousand
150 100 85 -82 110
Wages Low Skilled 1320.00
GBP/Month
1350 1450 1450 1450 1550
Wages High Skilled 2330.00
GBP/Month
2360 2410 2410 2410 2490
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.70
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.65
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
Core Consumer Prices 106.50
Index Points
108 107 108 109 113
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 104.22
Index Points
105 106 107 108 112
Producer Prices Change 3.30
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5
Food Inflation 0.90
percent
2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2
Inflation Expectations 3.00
percent
2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Producer Prices 115.10
Index Points
115 115 117 117 120
CPI Housing Utilities 105.80
Index Points
105 105 106 107 110
CPI Transportation 110.80
Index Points
110 109 113 114 115
Core Producer Prices 113.00
Index Points
113 114 115 115 119
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.75
percent
1 1 1.25 1.25 2
Interbank Rate 0.88
percent
0.85 0.85 1.1 1.1 1.85
Money Supply M0 81938.00
GBP Million
89500 98100 104200 106900 122400
Money Supply M1 1750911.00
GBP Million
1979400 2041000 2111000 2181000 2510800
Money Supply M2 2382445.00
GBP Million
2602100 2651000 2746000 2856000 3129100
Money Supply M3 2847363.00
GBP Million
3020000 3124000 3184000 3224000 3420000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 164239.03
USD Million
172000 175000 179000 185000 205000
Banks Balance Sheet 3783007.00
GBP Million
4180000 4250000 4280000 4320000 4510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 592950.00
GBP Million
615000 625000 636000 645000 689200
Loans to Private Sector 2430626.00
GBP Million
2510000 2550000 2580000 2630000 2810000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1.5
Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1.25 1.25 2
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
227 225 225 225 221
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -27.00
GBP Million
-1400 -1700 -1900 -2300 -1800
Exports 54953.00
GBP Million
55100 55400 55900 56200 57700
Imports 54980.00
GBP Million
56500 57100 57800 58500 59500
Current Account -20317.00
GBP Million
-26700 -20400 -20470 -17700 -22800
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent
-3.7 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
External Debt 6382913.00
GBP Million
6512000 6583000 6655000 6669000 6811000
Capital Flows 13843.00
GBP Million
40000 13600 16500 16500 36900
Foreign Direct Investment 22199.00
GBP Million
15200 36200 22500 -9700 15900
Gold Reserves 310.30
Tonnes
310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production 915.00
BBL/D/1K
950 800 800 800 750
Terrorism Index 5.10
5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Tourism Revenues 2008.00
GBP Million
1900 1870 2600 2700 2490
Tourist Arrivals 3234.00
Thousand
2810 3220 4010 3490 3040
Weapons Sales 1214.00
USD Million
1188 1202 1215 1228 1213
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 85.30
percent
85 83.8 83.8 83.8 82.5
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4
Government Budget Value -1174.00
GBP Million
1500 5100 -4400 -2200 2100
Government Spending 92514.00
GBP Million
93285 93567 93224 93902 96199
Government Spending to GDP 41.10
percent
41 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.1
Government Debt -3259.00
GBP Million
-1420 -1240 -3210 -3200 -2460
Military Expenditure 48383.40
USD Million
48729 48888 49046 49205 49776
Asylum Applications 2925.00
persons
2710 2980 2850 2900 2210
Government Revenues 56378.00
GBP Million
57890 64450 57420 58900 61870
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence -16.00
Index Points
-8 -12 1 5 2
Manufacturing PMI 51.10
55.1 52.3 54.4 54.2 51
Services PMI 52.20
Index Points
53.4 52 54 54.5 54.1
Industrial Production 0.00
percent
2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production 0.50
percent
2.5 3 2.6 2.5 2.3
Capacity Utilization 80.20
percent
83.2 83.2 83 82.9 82.7
New Orders 10801.00
GBP Million
15450 15620 15780 15820 16480
Factory Orders -6.00
Net Balance
3 2 2 1 -2
Changes in Inventories -854.00
GBP Million
-441 -223 67.7 46.6 233
Bankruptcies 4308.00
Companies
4400 4500 4900 4800 4600
Corporate Profits 114178.00
GBP Million
114000 115000 116000 116000 121000
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -67.90
-67 -76 -48 -20 12
Car Production 127051.00
Units
115000 164200 162500 165000 137000
Car Registrations 153599.00
175000 571000 267000 485000 196000
Small Business Sentiment -18.00
1 -2 5 10 10
Internet Speed 16920.86
KBps
20629 21136 21634 22124 26174
IP Addresses 27493519.00
IP
27772468 27811855 27813411 27838343 27862632
Leading Economic Index 0.60
percent
0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5
Private Investment -1.20
percent
-0.6 -1 0.6 0.5 0.5
Mining Production -1.80
percent
2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 2
Steel Production 630.00
Thousand Tonnes
720 680 640 640 850
Competitiveness Index 81.99
Points
81.99 81.3 81.3 81.3 80.6
Competitiveness Rank 8.00
8 10 10 10 11
Composite Pmi 52.10
52.9 51.5 53.4 54.1 52.8
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
82 82 82 82 82
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 8 8 8
Ease of Doing Business 9.00
6 5 5 5 5
Electricity Production 24971.00
Gigawatt-hour
30000 27100 25100 26000 30200
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.00
Index Points
-10 -14 -8 -7 -6
Retail Sales MoM -0.80
percent
0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 3.00
percent
2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7
Consumer Spending 334676.00
GBP Million
334731 336610 337699 339696 345188
Disposable Personal Income 335929.00
GBP Million
337100 338000 340500 342200 361400
Personal Savings 4.40
percent
4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 7.9
Bank Lending Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 2 2 2.75
Households Debt To GDP 86.10
percent of GDP
88.5 87 87 87 85
Households Debt To Income 126.42
percent
130 132 132 132 132
Consumer Credit 785.00
GBP Million
1680 1720 1790 1850 2130
Gasoline Prices 1.68
USD/Liter
1.65 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.45
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Starts 41190.00
units
38950 43220 43400 45100 44750
Construction Output 3.00
percent
1.7 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2
Housing Index 737.50
Index Points
755 762 769 775 795
Mortgage Approvals 65.27
Thousand
66.2 70.1 75.5 79.6 97.6
Mortgage Applications 38505.00
Units
47600 47900 48400 48900 52600
Home Ownership Rate 63.40
percent
63.1 62.5 62.5 62.5 62
Construction Orders -7.40
percent
1.5 2.5 4.5 3.6 2.5
Construction Pmi 53.20
53.8 50.8 53.6 53.2 52.9
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 25.80
percent
25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80
percent
13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 6.92
celsius
6.35 4.35 10.44 9.56 8.7
Precipitation 224.90
mm
126 101 104 104 101



United Kingdom - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook