Industrial production in the UK plunged 2.7 percent from a month earlier in April 2019, the largest decrease since September 2012 and compared to market expectations of a 0.7 percent fall. Manufacturing output posted its largest drop since June 2002 (-3.9 percent vs 0.9 percent), as transport equipment fell 13.4 percent, the most since January 1974. Within this subsector, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers dropped by a record 24 percent, due mainly to the impact of planned shutdowns within this industry. Providing supporting weakness within manufacturing were: pharmaceutical products (-8.7 percent); basic metals and metal products (-4.1 percent) led by a 3.5 percent decrease from fabricated metal products, the largest fall since January 2017; and chemicals and chemical products, which declined the most since January 1979 (-5.9 percent). Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom averaged 0.07 percent from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in March of 1972 and a record low of -8 percent in February of 1972.
Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.