The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at 0.75 percent during its August policy meeting, and reaffirmed its pledge to gradual and limited rate rises under the assumption of a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth. Still, the central bank lowered its GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 on the back of slower export growth and weak business investment. Interest Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 7.48 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in November of 1979 and a record low of 0.25 percent in August of 2016.

Interest Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Interest Rate is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-08-01 11:00 AM BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
2019-08-01 11:00 AM BoE Quantitative Easing £435B £435B £435B £435B
2019-08-01 11:00 AM BoE MPC Vote Hike 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
2019-08-01 11:00 AM BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
2019-09-19 11:00 AM BoE Quantitative Easing £435B £435B £435B
2019-09-19 11:00 AM BoE MPC Vote Hike 0/9 0/9 0/9
2019-09-19 11:00 AM BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 9/9 9/9 9/9



BoE Holds Rates, Reaffirms Pledge to Gradual Hikes

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at 0.75 percent during its August policy meeting, and reaffirmed its pledge to gradual and limited rate rises under the assumption of a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth. Still, the central bank lowered its GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 on the back of slower export growth and weak business investment.

BoE Monetary Policy Summary:

Brexit-related developments, such as stockbuilding ahead of previous deadlines, are making UK data volatile. After growing by 0.5% in 2019 Q1, GDP is expected to have been flat in Q2, slightly weaker than anticipated in May. Looking through recent volatility, underlying growth appears to have slowed since 2018 to a rate below potential, reflecting both the impact of intensifying Brexit-related uncertainties on business investment and weaker global growth on net trade.  Evidence from companies, up to the middle of July, suggests that uncertainty over the United Kingdom’s future trading relationship with the European Union has become more entrenched. The labour market remains tight. Annual pay growth has been relatively strong.  Consumer spending has remained resilient. CPI inflation was 2.0% in June and core CPI inflation was 1.8%.  

The Committee’s updated projections are set out in the accompanying August Inflation Report. They continue to assume a smooth adjustment to the average of a range of possible outcomes for the United Kingdom’s eventual trading relationship with the European Union. In the central projection, conditioned on prevailing asset prices, underlying output growth is subdued in the near term, reflecting more entrenched Brexit uncertainties. This means that a margin of excess supply persists over the first year of the projection. Thereafter, GDP is projected to accelerate to robust growth rates, reflecting a gradual recovery in global growth and firming UK domestic demand growth, driven in large part by a recovery in investment growth as uncertainties dissipate in line with the Brexit conditioning assumption. The acceleration in GDP results in a significant build-up of excess demand, to around 1¾% of potential GDP by the end of the forecast period. After falling in the near term, CPI inflation is projected to rise above the 2% target, as building excess demand leads to firmer domestic inflationary pressures. Conditioned on prevailing asset prices, CPI inflation reaches 2.4% by the end of the three-year forecast period.  

These projections are affected by an inconsistency between the smooth Brexit conditioning assumption underpinning the forecast and the prevailing market asset prices on which the forecasts are also conditioned. These asset prices reflect market participants’ perceptions of the likelihood and consequences of a no-deal Brexit.  If, as assumed, Brexit proceeds smoothly to some form of deal, market interest rates would likely rise and the sterling exchange rate would likely appreciate. A more consistent forecast would therefore have somewhat lower paths for GDP growth and CPI inflation.  

Increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal means that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over coming years. The appropriate path of monetary policy will depend on the balance of the effects of Brexit on demand, supply and the exchange rate. The monetary policy response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction. In all circumstances, the Committee will set monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% inflation target. 

Assuming a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth, a significant margin of excess demand is likely to build in the medium term. Were that to occur, the Committee judges that increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.


Bank of England | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
8/1/2019 11:24:34 AM



United Kingdom Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 17.00 0.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 83131.00 82819.00 83131.00 3529.00 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1777353.00 1764751.00 1779418.00 82323.00 GBP Million [+]
Interbank Rate 0.78 0.78 15.63 0.28 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 2441750.00 2437574.00 2441750.00 167427.00 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2891171.00 2882785.00 2907677.00 262975.00 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 174374.65 173886.54 180845.18 35190.42 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 588999.00 592389.00 597303.00 76991.00 GBP Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3896682.00 3878267.00 4060273.00 3342179.00 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2488339.00 2480365.00 2812935.00 8755.00 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.50 4.25 0.00 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.00 1.00 4.75 0.50 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 224.00 225.30 247.70 157.30 percent [+]


United Kingdom Interest Rate

In the United Kingdom, benchmark interest rate is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank of England official interest rate is the repo rate. This repo rate applies to open market operations of the Bank of England with a group of counterparties (banks, building societies, securities firms). This page provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.75 0.75 17.00 0.25 1971 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 83.46 Sep/19
Turkey 16.50 Sep/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.00 Sep/19
South Africa 6.50 Aug/19
Brazil 5.50 Sep/19
Indonesia 5.50 Aug/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.25 Sep/19
Saudi Arabia 2.50 Sep/19
United States 2.00 Sep/19
Canada 1.75 Sep/19
Singapore 1.74 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Aug/19
Australia 1.00 Sep/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Sep/19
France 0.00 Sep/19
Germany 0.00 Sep/19
Italy 0.00 Sep/19
Netherlands 0.00 Sep/19
Spain 0.00 Sep/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Aug/19


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