The UK economy expanded on average 0.3 percent in the three months to November of 2018, the least in 6 months, slowing from a 0.4 percent growth in the three months to October and in line with market expectations. The services sector advanced 0.3 percent (the same as in October) with professional and scientific activities adding the most to growth (0.14 percentage points). Also, the construction sector grew 2.1 percent (vs 1.6 percent) boosted by new work in house building and infrastructure. Meanwhile, the industrial sector shrank 0.8 percent, after expanding 0.3 percent in the previous period, as all four main production sub-sectors contracted for the first time since October 2012. Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom averaged 0.49 percent from 1997 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1.90 percent in September of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP 3-Month Average is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.