UK gross domestic product contracted 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, compared to forecasts that had pointed to stagnation. That was the first quarterly fall since 2012 after robust growth in the first quarter. Manufacturing output fell back after a strong start to the year, with production brought forward ahead of the UK’s original departure date from the EU. The construction sector also weakened after a buoyant beginning to the year, while the often-dominant service sector delivered virtually no growth at all. The trade deficit narrowed markedly, as imports fell following a sharp rise in the first quarter ahead of the UK’s original departure date from the EU. Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom averaged 0.49 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.90 percent in September of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP 3-Month Average is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.