The UK economy grew 0.3 percent on average in the three months to February of 2019, the same as in the three months to January and beating market expectations of 0.2 percent. The services sector was the largest contributor to growth, expanding by 0.4 percent and the production sector had a small positive contribution, growing by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, the construction sector shrank by 0.6 percent. Considering February only, the GDP advanced 0.2 percent, easing from a 0.5 percent expansion in January, mainly due to a slowdown in services, production, manufacturing and construction and a contraction in the agricultural sector. Year-on-year, the economy expanded 2 percent, higher than a 1.5 percent in January and market forecasts of 1.7 percent. Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom averaged 0.49 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.90 percent in September of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom GDP 3-Month Average is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.