Retail trade in the UK fell 0.5 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent drop in September and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Non-food stores were the largest contributor towards the overall fall (-1.3 percent), as purchases of household goods, such as electronics and home appliances, dropped the most since December 2017 (-3 percent) and clothes sales also declined (-1 percent). In addition, receipts at fuel stores went down 1.2 percent, while online and mail-order retail trade was unchanged and spending at food stores rose 0.4 percent. Year-on-year, retail trade growth slowed to 2.2 percent in October from an upwardly revised 3.3 percent in September, the slowest since April and also below market forecasts of 3 percent. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.