Retail trade in the UK rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier in October 2018, following an upwardly revised 3.3 percent growth in September and missing market expectations of an increase of 3.3 percent. It was the smallest annual gain in retail sales since April. Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom averaged 2.54 percent from 1997 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in April of 2002 and a record low of -3.90 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom to stand at 2.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.