UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, advanced by an annual 3.8 percent to GBP 542 per week in the three months to August 2019, following a downwardly revised 3.9 percent gain in the previous period and missing market expectations of a 4 percent rise. Wages growth slowed in the public sector (3.5 percent vs 3.7 percent); services (3.9 percent vs 4.0 percent), namely finance & business services (4.5 percent vs 4.8 percent); the private sector (3.8 percent vs 4.0 percent) and construction (5.7 percent vs 6.3 percent), but picked up in wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (3.2 percent vs 2.7 percent) and manufacturing (2.7 percent vs 2.5 percent). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.8 percent to GBP 509 per week, down from an upwardly revised 3.9 percent gain in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of a 3.7 percent increase. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.9 percent, and those excluding bonuses rose 2.0 percent. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.87 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.