UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, rose by an annual 3.1% to GBP 532 per week in the three months to April 2019, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.3% increase in the previous period but beating market expectations of a 3% gain. It was the weakest gain in wages since the three months to September 2018. Pay growth eased in the private sector (3.2% vs 3.3% in March); services (3.2% vs 3.5%); finance & business services (3.4% vs 3.8%); manufacturing (1.6% vs 1.7%); and wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (1% vs 1.5%). Meanwhile, wages advanced further in the public sector (3% vs 2.6%); and construction (4.4% vs 4.1%). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.4% to GBP 502 per week, after a 3.3% rise in the previous period and above market consensus of 3.1%. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.2%, and those excluding bonuses increased 1.5%. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.85 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.