UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.4 percent to GBP 527 per week in Q4 2018, the same pace as in the prior period and missing estimates of 3.5 percent. The increase in earnings including bonuses remains the fastest since the three months to July 2008. Pay growth picked up in finance & business services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and construction (4.3% vs 3.4%) while it was steady in the private (at 3.5%) and the public sector (at 2.8%). Meantime, wages advanced less in services (3.5% vs 3.6%); wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (2.7% vs 2.8%) and manufacturing (1.7% vs 1.8%). In December alone, wage growth slowed to 2.8 percent, the weakest single month rise since June. Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.4 percent to GBP 495 per week, after an upwardly revised 3.4 percent rise in the prior period, as expected. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.3 percent, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.2 percent. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.84 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 2.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.