UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.5 percent to GBP 529 per week in the three months to February 2019, the same pace as in the prior period and matching market expectations. The rise in earnings including bonuses was the fastest since the three months to July 2008. Pay growth quickened in construction (4.6% vs 4.5%) and manufacturing (1.9% vs 1.8%) while it was steady in the private sector (3.6%) and wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (2.5%). Meantime, wages rose less in the public sector (2.6% vs 2.8%); services (3.6% vs 3.7%) and finance & business services (3.7% vs 4.2%). In February alone, wage growth slowed to 3.2 percent from an upwardly revised 3.9 percent in January. Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.4 percent to GBP 497 per week, easing from an upwardly revised 3.5 percent gain in the previous period. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.6 percent, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.5 percent. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.85 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.