UK workers' total earnings, including bonuses, advanced by an annual 3.7% to GBP 538 per week in the three months to June 2019, the fastest pace in 11 years, following an upwardly revised 3.5% gain in the prior period and matching market expectations. Wages growth accelerated across all sectors: the private sector (3.9% vs 3.4% in May); the public sector (3.9% vs 3.6%); services (3.8% vs 3.5%), namely finance & business services (4.6% vs 4.1%); manufacturing (2.4% vs 1.9%); construction (5.9% vs 5.3%) and wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants (2.4% vs 0.9%). Excluding bonuses, earnings were up 3.9% to GBP 505 per week, the strongest rise in wages since the three months to June 2008, after a 3.6% increase in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of a 3.8% gain. In real terms, earnings including bonuses went up 1.8%, and those excluding bonuses advanced 1.9%. Wage Growth in the United Kingdom averaged 2.86 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -2.60 percent in March of 2009.
Wage Growth in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Wage Growth in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Average Weekly Earnings Growth is projected to trend around 3.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.