The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.35 in December 2019 from a downwardly revised +0.41 in the previous month, slightly below market expectations of -0.3. Production-related indicators contributed -0.26 to the CFNAI, down from +0.40 in November, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category edged down to -0.05 from -0.02. In addition, employment-related indicators contributed -0.06 to the index, down from +0.04 in November, while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category contributed rose to +0.03 from -0.01.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.79 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.29 in December of 1974. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.20 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.05 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.35 0.41 2.79 -5.29 1967 - 2019 Monthly

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-28 12:30 PM Sep -0.45 0.15 -0.37 -0.21
2019-11-25 01:30 PM Oct -0.71 -0.45 -0.43 -0.5
2019-12-23 01:30 PM Nov 0.56 -0.76 -0.09 -0.3
2020-01-22 01:30 PM Dec -0.35 0.41 -0.3 -0.3
2020-02-24 01:30 PM Jan -0.35 -0.6


News Stream
2019-12-23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 21-Month High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.56 in November 2019 from a downwardly revised -0.76 in the previous month and compared with market expectations of -0.09. It is the highest reading since February 2018, as production-related indicators contributed +0.49 to the CFNAI in November, up from -0.60 in October; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category ticked up to -0.04 from -0.05. Also, employment-related indicators contributed +0.12, up from -0.07 and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index edged up to -0.02 from -0.05.

2019-11-25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Unexpectedly
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October 2019 from -0.45 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, as all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators contributed -0.55 to the CFNAI in October, down from -0.36 in September; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category was little-changed at -0.03, compared to -0.04. In addition, employment-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the index, down from +0.01 in the previous month; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category remained negative at -0.03, compared to -0.05.

2019-10-28
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 5-month Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.45 in September 2019 from an upwardly revised +0.15 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -0.37. Production-related indicators contributed -0.37, down from +0.19 in August; sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.02 from -0.01 in the prior month; and personal consumption and housing went down to -0.04 from a flat reading. Meantime, employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, up slightly from -0.03. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September from 3.7 percent in August, but total nonfarm payrolls increased by 136,000 after rising by 168,000 in August.

2019-09-23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Beats Forecasts
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.10 in August 2019 from a revised -0.41 in the previous month and well above market expectations of -0.35 as four categories of indicators that make up the index improved compared to July. Still, three subcategories made negative contributions: sales, orders, and inventories (-0.02 from -0.07); employment-related indicators (-0.02 from -0.05) and personal consumption and housing (-0.02 from -0.03). Only production-related indicators ended up the month in the positive territory (+0.16 from -0.26).

2019-08-26
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 3-month Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.36 in July 2019, the lowest since April, from a revised 0.03 in the previous month. Production-related indicators contributed –0.25 to the CFNAI, down from +0.09 in June, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to –0.05 from –0.01. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked down to –0.06 from –0.05 in June; and employment-related indicators contributed –0.01, down slightly from a neutral value in June.

2019-07-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Below Forecasts
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.02 in June 2019, little-changed from a revised -0.03 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of +0.10. Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in June, down from +0.08 in May, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to -0.03 from +0.02. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI was unchanged at -0.05 in June, while employment-related indicators contributed +0.06, up from -0.08 in May.


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.

United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 47.20 48.10 77.50 29.40 points [+]
Services PMI 53.20 52.80 61.00 49.30 points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.00 53.90 62.00 37.80 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.70 52.40 57.90 50.30 points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.10 52.70 61.00 50.00 points [+]
Industrial Production -1.00 -0.70 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.30 -0.90 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.02 77.37 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.00 0.20 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 0.80 0.00 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.30 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.30 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 493029.00 496962.00 549482.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.70 0.20 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.20 0.10 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.44 69.40 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.10 0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22910.00 22483.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1868.66 1857.53 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 102.70 104.70 108.80 80.10 points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.80 3.30 39.00 -34.30 points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 2.40 58.50 -57.90 points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -5.00 -1.00 27.00 -44.00 points [+]
Ism New York Index 39.10 50.40 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -3.20 -1.30 47.60 -59.90 points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.35 0.41 2.79 -5.29 [+]
Chicago Pmi 48.90 46.30 78.60 21.20 points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.10 16.60 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.53 2.57 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 345.67 373.49 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -0.41 -2.55 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1745.00 6678.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -92.00 -109.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 129.78 129.35 129.78 45.48 points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 676.00 673.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 1.60 1.10 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Corruption Index 69.00 71.00 78.00 69.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 23.00 22.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Crude Oil Imports -53.00 -595.00 2201.00 -2518.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Fuel Production -251.00 -105.00 570.00 -699.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Stocks -1185.00 8171.00 11205.00 -13011.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Cushing Crude Oil Stocks -961.00 342.00 4737.00 -4184.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 8.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Gasoline Production 254.00 394.00 1082.00 -1494.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Steel Production 7233.00 7407.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Refinery Crude Runs 76.00 -386.00 1572.00 -3253.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Mining Production 1.40 2.30 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index -4.00 -3.00 35.00 -32.00 points [+]
Heating Oil Stocks 142.00 -168.00 94208.00 -92090.00 Thousand Barrels [+]