The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US increased to 0.66 in January of 2021 from a downwardly revised 0.41 in December. The reading pointed to the strongest activity growth in 3 months, led by improvements in personal consumption-related indicators (+0.35 from -0.06). Meanwhile, production-related indicators contributed +0.28, down from +0.37 in December. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category edged down to +0.02 from +0.05 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.01, down slightly from +0.05 in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.47 in January from +0.60 in December. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 6 in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.71 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2021.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.66 0.41 6.00 -17.71 1967 - 2021 Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-11-23 01:30 PM Oct 0.83 0.32 0.1
2020-12-21 01:30 PM Nov 0.27 1.01 0.4
2021-01-25 01:30 PM Dec 0.52 0.31 0.1
2021-02-22 01:30 PM Jan 0.66 0.41 0.39
2021-03-22 12:30 PM Feb 0.66 0.47
2021-04-22 12:30 PM Mar
2021-05-24 12:30 PM Apr
2021-06-21 12:30 PM May


News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 3-Month High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US increased to 0.66 in January of 2021 from a downwardly revised 0.41 in December. The reading pointed to the strongest activity growth in 3 months, led by improvements in personal consumption-related indicators (+0.35 from -0.06). Meanwhile, production-related indicators contributed +0.28, down from +0.37 in December. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category edged down to +0.02 from +0.05 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.01, down slightly from +0.05 in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.47 in January from +0.60 in December.
2021-02-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US jumped to 0.52 in December of 2020 from an upwardly revised 0.31 in November. The reading pointed to the 8th consecutive month of growing activity, led by improvements in production-related indicators (0.44 vs 0.13). On the other hand, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved down to 0.05 from 0.09 and employment-related indicators to 0.13 from 0.15 in November while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category fell further to -0.09 from -0.06. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to 0.61 in December from 0.59 in November.
2021-01-25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 6-Month Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US fell to 0.27 in November of 2020 from an upwardly revised 1.01 in October. The reading pointed to slower but still slightly above-average growth, led by employment (0.15 vs 0.45) and production-related (0.14 vs 0.36) indicators. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to –0.09 from +0.02. Also, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to 0.56 in November from 0.85 in October.
2020-12-21
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US increased to +0.83 in October of 2020 from an upwardly revised +0.32 in September, led by improvements in production-related indicators (+0.36 vs -0.1). Employment-related indicators contributed +0.39, up slightly from +0.30 in September and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category increased to +0.08 from a neutral value. In contrast, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to –0.01 from +0.12. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.75 in October from +1.37 in September.
2020-11-23

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.