The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.22 in November 2018 from a downwardly revised +0.00 in the previous month. It is the highest reading since August, as the contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.08 in November (vs –0.09 in October) and from industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November (vs -0.2 in the prior month). The contribution from the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.09 in November (vs –0.02 in October). Meanwhile, employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.15 in October, as total nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 in November after rising by 237,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.05 in November from –0.04 in October. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.22 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.21 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.