The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to +0.27 in September 2020 from an upwardly revised +1.11 in the previous month, missing market expectations of +0.39. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from August. Production-related indicators contributed -0.24 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.31 in August; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to +0.07 from +0.10. Also, employment-related indicators contributed +0.35 in September, down from +0.71 in August; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.09 from a neutral value in the previous month. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 5.93 in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.74 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2020.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.10 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.60 in 2021 and -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.27 1.11 5.93 -17.74 1967 - 2020 Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-07-21 12:30 PM Jun 4.11 3.50 3.2
2020-08-24 12:30 PM Jul 1.18 5.33 2.73 2
2020-09-21 12:30 PM Aug 0.79 2.54 1.95 1.8
2020-10-26 12:30 PM Sep 0.27 1.11 0.39 0.2
2020-11-23 01:30 PM Oct 0.27
2020-12-21 01:30 PM Nov


News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Below Forecasts
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to +0.27 in September 2020 from an upwardly revised +1.11 in the previous month, missing market expectations of +0.39. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from August. Production-related indicators contributed -0.24 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.31 in August; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to +0.07 from +0.10. Also, employment-related indicators contributed +0.35 in September, down from +0.71 in August; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.09 from a neutral value in the previous month.
2020-10-26
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Below Forecasts
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to +0.79 in August 2020 from an upwardly revised +2.54 in the previous month, missing market expectations of +1.95. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but all four categories decreased from July. Production-related indicators contributed +0.23 to the CFNAI, down from +1.26 in July; and employment-related indicators contributed +0.63, compared to +0.65. At the same time, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the index moved down to -0.04 in August from +0.53 in July; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category declined to -0.04 from +0.09.
2020-09-21
Chicago Fed Activity Index Falls from Record High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US fell to 1.18 in July of 2020 from a record high of 5.33 in June and compared to market forecasts of 2.73. The reading pointed to slower growth in economic activity compared to June but still well-above-average (0.01). All four broad categories came lower than in June but three made positive contributions: production-related (1.09 vs 2.21); employment-related (0.38 vs 1.94); personal consumption and housing (0.02 vs 0.42) and sales, orders and inventories (-0.31 from 0.77). The index’s three-month moving average rose to +3.59 in July from –2.78 in June, pointing to the first expansion since January. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values above –0.70.
2020-08-24
Chicago Fed Activity Index Reaches New High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US rose to a record high of 4.11 in June of 2020 from an upwardly revised 3.5 in May, as states reopen their economies after the coronavirus lockdown. The index reached a record low of -18.09 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions: production (+2.22), employment (+1.74) and personal consumption and housing (+0.4) while the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved down to -0.24. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to -3.49 in June from -6.36 in May, still pointing to a likelihood of a recession. Periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70.
2020-07-21

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.