The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.45 in April 2019 from an upwardly revised +0.05 in the previous month and worse than market expectations of -0.33. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI declined to -0.44 in April from -0.04 in March; and that of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to -0.05 from a neutral value in the previous month. In addition, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.01 to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.06 in March; while employment-related indicators contributed +0.04, up slightly from +0.03. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.27 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.22 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.15 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.