The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.43 in January 2019 from a downwardly revised +0.05 in the previous month. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI decreased sharply to -0.45 from +0.08 in December; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category remained negative at -0.04, compared to -0.06 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 in January, up slightly from a neutral contribution in December, and the employment-related indicators contributed +0.05, up slightly from +0.02. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.25 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.70 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.38 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.