The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US slumped to a record low of -16.74 in April of 2020 from a downwardly revised -4.97 in March. Figures pointed to a record contraction in activity, due to the coronavirus pandemic, led by declines in production and employment-related indicators although all four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in April, and all four categories decreased from March. The three-month moving average decreased to -7.22 in April from -1.69 in March, pointing to an increasing likelihood of a recession.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged -0.03 from 1967 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 2.80 in September of 1983 and a record low of -16.74 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2020. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -3.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.60 in 2021 and -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-16.74 -4.97 2.07 -16.74 1967 - 2020 Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-02-24 01:30 PM Jan -0.25 -0.51 -0.92 -0.6
2020-03-23 12:30 PM Feb 0.16 -0.33 -0.4
2020-04-20 12:30 PM Mar -4.19 0.06 -4
2020-05-26 12:30 PM Apr -16.74 -4.97 -3
2020-06-22 12:30 PM May -16.74 -4
2020-07-21 12:30 PM Jun -3
2020-08-24 12:30 PM Jul
2020-09-21 12:30 PM Aug


News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Reaches Record Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US slumped to a record low of -16.74 in April of 2020 from a downwardly revised -4.97 in March. Figures pointed to a record contraction in activity, due to the coronavirus pandemic, led by declines in production and employment-related indicators although all four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in April, and all four categories decreased from March. The three-month moving average decreased to -7.22 in April from -1.69 in March, pointing to an increasing likelihood of a recession.
2020-05-26
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Lowest Since 2009
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US plunged to -4.19 in March of 2020 from a downwardly revised 0.06 in February, reaching the lowest since January of 2009. All four broad categories made negative contributions in March, led by production-related indicators (–2.72) and employment-related indicators (–1.23). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –1.47 in March from –0.20 in February. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70.
2020-04-20
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to +0.16 in February 2020 from -0.33 in the previous month, as two of the four categories that make up the index increased. The production-related indicators contributed +0.11 to the index, up from -0.34 in January, and the employment-related indicators contributed +0.05, up from +0.01 in January. Meanwhile, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index ticked down to +0.02 in February from +0.03 in the previous month, while the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked down to -0.03 in February from -0.02 in January.
2020-03-23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to -0.25 in January of 2020 from a revised -0.51 in the previous month, and compared to market expectations of -0.92. Production-related indicators contributed -0.23 to the CFNAI in January, up from -0.34 in December while the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the index moved up to -0.02 from -0.06 in December. In addition, employment-related indicators contributed -0.03 to the CFNAI in January, up from -0.12 in December, while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index edged up to +0.03 from a flat reading in the previous month.
2020-02-24

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.