The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.45 in April 2019 from an upwardly revised +0.05 in the previous month and worse than market expectations of -0.33. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI declined to -0.44 in April from -0.04 in March; and that of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to -0.05 from a neutral value in the previous month. In addition, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.01 to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.06 in March; while employment-related indicators contributed +0.04, up slightly from +0.03. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.27 in December of 1974.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.22 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.15 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-02-25 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.43 0.05 0.11
2019-03-25 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.29 -0.25 -0.25 0.3
2019-04-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15 -0.31 2.55 -0.15
2019-05-20 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.45 0.05 -0.33 -0.1
2019-06-24 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.45 0.1
2019-07-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22
2019-08-26 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.11


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 52.80 55.30 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.60 52.60 57.90 50.60 [+]
Services PMI 50.90 53.00 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.50 56.10 62.00 37.80 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.90 53.00 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.90 2.30 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 0.20 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.20 0.70 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.93 78.46 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.10 1.70 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -2.50 0.10 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 -0.50 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.80 0.30 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 508192.00 497474.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.90 -0.30 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 0.30 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 128.39 96.80 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.10 0.40 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22157.00 22232.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.20 2076.82 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 103.50 101.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 77.30 66.90 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 16.60 8.50 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.80 10.10 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 3.00 10.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.45 0.05 2.78 -5.27 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 2.00 6.90 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 52.60 58.70 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.42 2.46 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 464.96 377.46 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.40 17.45 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 4.74 5.43 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 100.00 106.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 3716.00 -1123.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 127.79 125.78 127.79 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 2.40 8.60 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 797.00 802.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7752.00 6896.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 10.40 9.80 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.45 0.05 2.78 -5.27 1967 - 2019 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States -0.45 Apr/19


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