The MNI Chicago Business Barometer in the US increased by 6 points to 50.4 in July 2019 from the previous month's three-and-a-half-year low. The latest reading also beat market expectations of 47.5. Production remains muted, despite a pickup of 6.7 points; and demand recovered slightly, highlighted by an increase in New Orders, which saw the largest single component monthly gain and shifted back into expansion. Order Backlogs recovered to 51.3 in August after three straight months below 50. Inventories witnessed the largest monthly percentage decline, falling by 11.2 percent to 47.9, indicating that firms started to run down inventories in August. Employment remained in contraction. Chicago Pmi in the United States averaged 54.80 Index Points from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 78.60 Index Points in January of 1973 and a record low of 21.20 Index Points in June of 1980.
Chicago Pmi in the United States is expected to be 52.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Pmi in the United States to stand at 52.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago PMI is projected to trend around 56.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.