The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to 2 in April 2019 from a revised 6.9 in the previous month, still beating market expectations of -2.6. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 1.9 points to 12.4, indicating output growth accelerated slightly from March. In addition, other measures of manufacturing activity increased: new orders (9.8 vs 2.2); growth rate of orders (5.2 vs -2); capacity utilization (15.6 vs 9.4); and shipments (6.3 vs 5.8). Labor market measures suggested weaker employment growth but slightly stronger growth in workweek length in April: the employment index fell 7.6 points to 4.6, its lowest reading since the end of 2016; while the hours worked index came in at 8.1, up slightly from March. Looking ahead, the index of future general business activity was unchanged at 18.4, while the index of future company outlook edged up to 20.9 from 18.4. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.23 Index Points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.60 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -59.90 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 11.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 5.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.