The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas dropped to -3.2 in December 2019 from -1.3 in the previous month, well below market consensus of +1.5; while the company outlook index inched up three points to +1.3. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks receded 12 points to +5.6, its lowest reading since March. Still, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to +3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also rose in December: new orders (+1.6 vs -3.0); growth rate of orders index (-5.0 vs -9.3); capacity utilization (+7.8 vs -5.3); and shipments (+3.0 from -4.5). Labor market measures suggested rising employment levels and slightly longer workweeks this month.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 2.94 points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.60 points in June of 2004 and a record low of -59.90 points in February of 2009. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be -3.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 5.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 5.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-3.20 -1.30 47.60 -59.90 2004 - 2019 points Monthly
SA

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-30 02:30 PM Sep 1.5 2.7 -2.3 -4
2019-10-28 02:30 PM Oct -5.1 1.5 1.4 -2
2019-11-25 03:30 PM Nov -1.3 -5.1 -11.3 -8
2019-12-30 03:30 PM Dec -3.2 -1.3 1.5 -3
2020-01-27 03:30 PM Jan -3.2 -3.1 -4


News Stream
2019-11-25
Texas Business Activity Index Remains Negative
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -1.3 in November 2019 from -5.1 in the previous month, above market consensus of -11.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016 (-2.4 vs 4.5 in October). Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative in November: new orders (-3.0 vs -4.2); growth rate of orders (-9.3 vs -5.9); capacity utilization (-5.3 vs 3.6); and shipments (-4.5 vs 6.0). The company outlook index fell 10.9 points to -2.1; while the index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks moved up 5.0 points to 17.1. Labor market measures suggested employment levels were unchanged. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in November.

2019-10-28
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Below Forecasts
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -5.1 in October 2019 from 1.5 in the previous month and well below market consensus of 1.4. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 9 points to 4.5, suggesting a moderation in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in October: new orders (-11 points to -4.2), the first negative reading in three years; capacity utilization (-8.4 points to 3.6), reaching a three-year low; and shipments (-9 points to 6). Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours this month. Expectations regarding future business conditions were more optimistic in October. The index of future general business activity returned to positive territory, rising 9 points to 2.4; and the index of future company outlook rose 13 points to 15.3, its highest level in six months.

2019-09-30
Texas Manufacturing Expansion Slows
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to 1.5 in September 2019 from 2.7 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -2.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 4 points to 13.9, suggesting output growth continued but at a slightly slower pace than in August. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slightly slower expansion in September: New orders (-2.2 points to 7.1); shipments (-2.9 points to 14.7); and capacity utilization (-3.7 points to 12.0). A bright spot this month was the growth rate of orders index, which edged up to a five-month high. Labor market measures suggested stronger growth in employment and work hours in September. Expectations regarding future business conditions were mixed, with the index of future general business activity slipping 8 points into negative territory and the index of future company outlook also falling 8 points.

2019-08-26
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds in August
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas increased to 2.7 in August 2019 from -6.3 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -3.0. It is the highest reading in five months, as the production index rose to 17.9 from 9.3 in July, the strongest in nearly a year. Also, the shipments index jumped to 17.6 from 10.2 and the capacity utilization index went up to 15.7 from 11.2, both hitting an 11-month high. Meanwhile, the growth rate of orders index slowed to 1.8 from 2.7. Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours: the employment index remained positive but retreated 11 points to 5.5 and the hours worked fell to 4. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive, as the index of future general business activity posted a second consecutive positive reading but moved down 5 points to 1.4. and the future company outlook index was little changed at 10.4.

2019-07-29
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Improves in July
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -6.3 in July 2019 from a three-year low of -12.1 in June and compared with market expectations of -5. The production index increased to 9.3 from 8.9 in June and the growth rate of orders index rebounded into positive territory, rising nine points to 2.7. Additionally, the shipments index jumped nine points to 10.2; and the capacity utilization index advanced to 11.2. Labor market measures suggested robust growth in employment and work hours: the employment index went up seven points to 16.0, and the hours worked index pushed further above average with a reading of 6.6. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions improved in July, as the index of future general business activity returned to positive territory, increasing nine points to 6.0 and the future company outlook index moved up six points to 9.1.

2019-06-24
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing at 3-Year Low
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -12.1 in June 2019 from -5.3 in May and compared with market forecasts of -1. It was the lowest reading since June 2016, as the growth rate of orders index dropped 8 points to -6.7, its weakest reading in nearly three years and the shipments index decreased to a two-year low (1.7 vs 7.6). Meanwhile, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.3 to 8.9; the new orders index edged up to 3.7; and the capacity utilization index inched up to 9.6. Labor market measures suggested solid, but somewhat slower, growth in employment and work hours in June: the employment index declined from 11.6 to 8.8 and the hours worked index went down to 4.7. Looking ahead, the index of future general business activity decreased 12 points to -2.7, and the index of future company outlook fell 8 points but remained positive at 3.6.


United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index measures the performance of manufacturing sector in the state of Texas. The index is derived from a survey of around 100 business executives and tracks variables such as output, employment, orders and prices. A reading above 0 indicates an expansion of the factory activity compared to the previous month; below 0 represents a contraction; while 0 indicates no change. Texas produces around 9.5 percent of manufacturing output in US. The state ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 47.20 48.10 77.50 29.40 points [+]
Services PMI 53.20 52.80 61.00 49.30 points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.00 53.90 62.00 37.80 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.70 52.40 57.90 50.30 points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.10 52.70 61.00 50.00 points [+]
Industrial Production -1.00 -0.70 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.30 -0.90 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.02 77.37 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.00 0.20 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 0.80 0.00 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.30 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.30 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 493029.00 496962.00 549482.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.70 0.20 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.20 0.10 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.44 69.40 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.10 0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22910.00 22483.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1868.66 1857.53 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 102.70 104.70 108.80 80.10 points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.80 3.30 39.00 -34.30 points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 2.40 58.50 -57.90 points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -5.00 -1.00 27.00 -44.00 points [+]
Ism New York Index 39.10 50.40 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -3.20 -1.30 47.60 -59.90 points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.35 0.41 2.79 -5.29 [+]
Chicago Pmi 48.90 46.30 78.60 21.20 points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.10 16.60 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.53 2.57 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 345.67 373.49 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -0.41 -2.55 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1745.00 6678.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -92.00 -109.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 129.78 129.35 129.78 45.48 points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 676.00 673.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 1.60 1.10 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Corruption Index 69.00 71.00 78.00 69.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 23.00 22.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Crude Oil Imports -53.00 -595.00 2201.00 -2518.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Fuel Production -251.00 -105.00 570.00 -699.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Stocks -1185.00 8171.00 11205.00 -13011.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Cushing Crude Oil Stocks -961.00 342.00 4737.00 -4184.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 8.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Gasoline Production 254.00 394.00 1082.00 -1494.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Steel Production 7233.00 7407.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Refinery Crude Runs 76.00 -386.00 1572.00 -3253.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Mining Production 1.40 2.30 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index -4.00 -3.00 35.00 -32.00 points [+]
Heating Oil Stocks 142.00 -168.00 94208.00 -92090.00 Thousand Barrels [+]