The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas increased to 2.7 in August 2019 from -6.3 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -3.0. It is the highest reading in five months, as the production index rose to 17.9 from 9.3 in July, the strongest in nearly a year. Also, the shipments index jumped to 17.6 from 10.2 and the capacity utilization index went up to 15.7 from 11.2, both hitting an 11-month high. Meanwhile, the growth rate of orders index slowed to 1.8 from 2.7. Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours: the employment index remained positive but retreated 11 points to 5.5 and the hours worked fell to 4. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive, as the index of future general business activity posted a second consecutive positive reading but moved down 5 points to 1.4. and the future company outlook index was little changed at 10.4. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.05 Index Points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.60 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -59.90 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be -4.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 5.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.