New orders for manufactured goods made in the US fell 2.1 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent growth in September and compared to market expectations of a 2.0 percent drop. This was the largest monthly decline in factory orders since July 2017 mainly due to a decrease in transport equipment orders (-12 percent vs 0.9 percent in September), such as civilian aircraft (-22.2 percent vs -19.1 percent), defense aircraft & parts (-59.3 percent vs 117.1 percent) and motor vehicles (-0.1 percent, the same as in September). Demand also fell for primary metals (-2.2 percent vs -1.3 percent) and machinery (-0.4 percent vs 0.2 percent), while there were increases in orders for fabricated metal products (1.7 percent vs -2.1 percent), computers and electronic products (1.7 percent vs 0.6 percent), and electrical equipment, appliances & components (1.7 percent vs -0.7 percent). Factory Orders in the United States averaged 0.28 percent from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.60 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -10 percent in August of 2014.
Factory Orders in the United States is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Factory Orders in the United States to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Factory Orders is projected to trend around 0.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.