Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Currency 99.34 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 28993.67 27979 27710 27445 27179 26648
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.47 1.55 1.6 1.65 1.7 1.8

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 1.8 2 1.8 1.7 1.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 225.00 180 169 150 170 170
Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.2 1.7 1.7 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -48880.00 -55000 -51000 -49000 -62000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -124094.00 -129000 -125000 -120000 -125000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 108 108 108 108 107
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2
Business Confidence (points) 50.90 51 51.6 51.4 52 52.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.80 50.5 51 50.9 50.4 51.2
Services PMI (points) 49.40 52.1 51.5 52 50.8 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.50 54.4 52 52 52 50
Consumer Confidence (points) 100.90 98.4 88 86 86.7 85
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1551.00 1150 1100 1150 1115 1200
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 35

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 1.8 2 1.8 1.7 1.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2
GDP (USD Billion) 20544.34 21990 21990 21990 21990 22390
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19219.77 19287 19497 19561 19681 20114
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19409.89 19538 19807 19856 19876 20313
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3330.97 3413 3421 3407 3411 3486
GDP per capita (USD) 54541.70 56200 56200 56200 56200 57200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 55681.05 57500 57500 57500 57500 58500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 243.10 238 244 249 249 254
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 651.40 668 671 666 667 682
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2190.40 2206 2221 2241 2243 2292
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 548.70 521 552 561 562 574
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2212.00 2237 2267 2263 2265 2315
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13201.10 13324 13460 13505 13518 13815
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 559.00 575 574 572 572 585
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 282.60 288 302 289 289 296

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 225.00 180 169 150 170 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 206.00 170 165 140 161 161
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 19.00 10 20 10 9 9
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) -12.00 12 -6 -10 -2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 210.00 216 220 220 238 267
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1726.00 1650 1680 1700 1700 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 291.00 180 145 160 150 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 158714.00 157100 157500 156900 154000 153000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 5892.00 6200 5900 5900 6280 6390
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 63.40 63.3 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.20 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Productivity (points) 107.91 109 110 110 111 112
Labour Costs (points) 112.38 116 116 116 116 120
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 5892.00 7400 7200 7400 6800 6600
Job Offers (Thousand) 6423.00 7100 7000 6900 6800 6600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 67735.00 65000 48000 50000 51000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 23.87 24.21 24.43 24.55 24.6 25.54
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.47 22.84 23 23.07 23.29 24.18
Wage Growth (%) 5.20 4 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.8
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 9
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 327.17 330 330 330 331 333
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 27529.00 25900 25800 26500 27500 26500
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 2038 2040 2031 2023 2100
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4701 4705 4683 4665 4842
Employment Rate (%) 61.20 60.7 61 61 60.8 60.4
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2475 2478 2466 2456 2549
Living Wage Individual (USD/Month) 1660.00 1726 1728 1720 1713 1778
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 131099.00 131279 131400 131500 132302 133627

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.2 1.7 1.7 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 258.82 260 260 261 264 269
Core Consumer Prices (points) 266.48 267 268 269 271 276
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.30 2.1 1.8 1.7 2 2
GDP Deflator (points) 113.08 114 114 115 115 118
Producer Prices (points) 119.40 120 120 121 122 125
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.10 1.7 1.8 2 2.2 2.1
Export Prices (points) 125.90 126 125 123 119 119
Import Prices (points) 125.00 126 125 125 126 126
Food Inflation (%) 1.80 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9
Pce Price Index (points) 110.59 112 114 114 121 121
Core Pce Price Index (points) 112.57 118 119 119 120 120
Core Producer Prices (points) 118.70 118 119 119 121 121
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 269.47 270 271 272 274 279
CPI Transportation (points) 208.28 213 217 213 213 217
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.50 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Interest Rate (%) 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2
Interbank Rate (%) 1.70 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 129479.00 128900 129200 129200 129200 123602
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 4119939.00 3795838 3812838 3850000 3850000 3800000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Million) 17816501.00 17556618 17756618 17756618 16856715 16856716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 196.70 189 189 189 189 185

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -48880.00 -55000 -51000 -49000 -62000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -124094.00 -129000 -125000 -120000 -125000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2
Imports (USD Million) 258517.00 265000 260000 259000 268000 269000
Exports (USD Million) 209636.00 210000 209000 210000 206000 216000
Terms of Trade (points) 106.51 99.84 100 98.72 94.64 94.64
Capital Flows (USD Million) 78246.00 45000 20000 -25000 22000 25000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 50582.00 48032 49000 49500 52152 53000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12879.00 12900 13000 13200 13500 14000
Tourist Arrivals 6712574.00 6260800 6360800 6580000 6580000 6760100

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 108 108 108 108 107
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -32593.00 -120000 -7000 91000 -62500 -62490
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3332.39 3320 3379 3387 3412 3487
Government Revenues (USD Million) 372288.00 236075 300000 300000 325000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 404881.00 388812 399000 399000 345000 350000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.80 38 38 38 38 38.3

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Business Confidence (points) 50.90 51 51.6 51.4 52 52.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.80 50.5 51 50.9 50.4 51.2
Services PMI (points) 49.40 52.1 51.5 52 50.8 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.50 54.4 52 52 52 50
Composite Pmi (points) 49.60 51.9 51 50.5 51.1 51.9
Industrial Production (%) -0.80 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.30 -0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.80 0.8 0.6 1 0.9 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.78 76.5 77.2 77.8 78.6 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.40 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -2.50 0.1 1.3 0.8 1.3 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.10 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.60 0.4 0.3 0.3 1 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 1.80 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.3
Business Inventories (%) 0.10 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) 6.48 72 75 75 75 75
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.20 -0.4 0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 22780.00 23000 22800 23500 25000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1868.66 1825 1790 1820 1850 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 104.30 102 98 96 93 93
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 36.70 11 11 10 9 5
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 12.90 8 5 2 10 4
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 20.00 -8 -4 1 -3 -3
Ism New York Index (%) 45.80 47.6 51 52 55.9 54
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -0.20 -6 10 5 2 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.35 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.05 -0.5
Chicago Pmi (points) 42.90 49.4 52 50 54 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.80 17 17 17 17.3 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.76 2.5 2.58 2.75 2.9 2.8
Car Registrations (Thousand) 345.67 460 410 420 440 445
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) 0.41 5 3 3 2.6 2.6
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) -151.00 25 90 100 -200 -200
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -1971.00 500 600 -500 2000 2000
Leading Economic Index (points) 129.99 127 127 126 126 125
Crude Oil Rigs 679.00 640 660 680 650 750
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) 4.20 -3.2 2 3.5 2 2
Mining Production (%) 3.10 3 2.5 2 3.2 3

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 100.90 98.4 88 86 86.7 85
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.30 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.40 2 2 2.2 2 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.30 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13411.94 13352 13581 13660 13734 14036
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 16706.40 16583 16814 16991 17107 17484
Personal Spending (%) 0.30 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5
Personal Income (%) 0.20 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 7.60 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.9 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 22.06 10.18 8.66 9.16 22.59 23.09
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10026.82 9956 10000 10000 10200 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
Economic Optimism Index 59.80 50 51 52 49 49
Redbook Index (%) 5.70 4.5 4.5 4 4 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 6565.00 3300 3150 3250 6500 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 75.00 78 78 78 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.67 0.6 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.65

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Building Permits (Thousand) 1551.00 1150 1100 1150 1115 1200
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1567.00 1150 1240 1150 1180 1070
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 694.00 710 650 600 550 460
Pending Home Sales (%) 4.60 1.3 1.5 -0.5 1.2 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5460.00 5150 5200 5180 4600 4700
Construction Spending (%) -0.20 -0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Nahb Housing Market Index 74.00 74 73 68 67 65
Housing Index (%) 0.20 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.77 4.45 3.99 3.99 4.45 4.7
Mortgage Applications (%) -6.40 2.7 1.5 -3.5 0.9 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 218.68 222 221 220 218 222
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.10 64.8 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.