Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 97.15 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 25741.00 25450 24952 24461 23984 23028
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.8

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -5.00 15 5 1 1.5 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.30 -14 -3 2.3 2 2.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 12 10 9 8 7
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 4800.00 4000 1000 100 280 107
Inflation Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -54601.00 -34000 -62000 -37000 -31000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -104204.00 -100000 -115000 -115000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2 -2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Business Confidence (points) 52.60 49 51 52 53 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.80 51 51.1 49 50 50
Services PMI (points) 46.70 51 50.8 50.1 50 50.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 45.40 51 52 50 51 50
Consumer Confidence (points) 78.10 77 75 76 80 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 17.70 1.5 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1220.00 1050 1000 1000 1200 1200
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -5.00 15 5 1 1.5 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.30 -14 -3 2.3 2 2.2
GDP (USD Billion) 21427.70 19000 19000 21000 21000 21000
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18977.40 16444 18645 19414 19357 19056
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19212.08 16693 18930 19654 19596 19346
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3305.49 2864 3226 3382 3372 3297
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 53240 53240 54200 54200 54200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 59770 59770 60500 60500 60500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 244.90 209 238 251 250 243
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 653.80 560 634 669 667 648
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2185.10 1884 2120 2235 2229 2166
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 546.50 472 530 559 557 542
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2226.80 1902 2160 2278 2271 2208
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13286.30 11353 12888 13592 13552 13171
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 561.20 481 544 574 572 556
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 297.80 243 289 305 304 295

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 12 10 9 8 7
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 4800.00 4000 1000 100 280 107
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 4767.00 3900 970 90 270 105
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 33.00 100 30 10 10 2
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 356.00 500 90 2 20 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1427.00 220 238 238 238 267
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 19290.00 14000 10000 6000 3000 4000
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 2369.00 400 1500 1500 200 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 142182.00 146900 148000 152000 155000 153000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 17750.00 5900 6280 6280 6280 6390
Average Hourly Earnings (%) -1.20 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.50 34.2 34.4 34.4 34.2 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.50 61.5 61.6 61.9 61.9 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.87 0.87 0.87 -0.13 -1.13 -2.13
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 20.70 20.7 20.7 19.7 18.7 17.7
Productivity (points) 108.03 109 109 110 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 113.42 107 110 114 115 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 5347.00 4100 4800 4600 5100 5200
Job Offers (Thousand) 5046.00 1900 2100 3800 3200 3600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 170219.00 150000 71000 71000 50000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 24.74 22.8 23.36 24.22 25.25 24.72
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.54 21.42 22.11 22.68 22.93 23.39
Wage Growth (%) -5.66 -3.8 -2 0.5 1 5.8
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 9 9 9
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.80 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 329.13 330 331 331 331 333
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 54.60 56 58.8 58.8 60.9 60.4
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 116523.00 120500 125302 128302 129000 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 20741.00 26500 27500 27500 27500 26500

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.5
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.10 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 255.77 257 261 259 256 265
Core Consumer Prices (points) 265.44 269 268 270 269 273
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.20 1.5 1 1.2 1.3 1.5
GDP Deflator (points) 113.49 113 114 114 114 116
Producer Prices (points) 117.50 119 119 120 119 122
Producer Prices Change (%) -0.80 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.8
Export Prices (points) 119.10 123 119 119 118 119
Import Prices (points) 119.40 125 126 126 126 126
Food Inflation (%) 4.00 3 2 2 1.5 1.9
Core Pce Price Index (points) 112.50 119 120 120 120 120
Core Producer Prices (points) 118.10 119 121 121 121 121
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 270.82 268 271 271 271 275
CPI Transportation (points) 191.42 210 210 205 192 214
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
Pce Price Index (points) 110.11 114 121 121 121 121

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 132239.00 129200 129200 129200 129200 123602
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6975799.00 6827776 6917676 7161339 7255597 8586458
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Million) 20072300.00 22377366 24224722 26082618 28672113 32856716
Private Debt to GDP (%) 196.70 200 200 200 189 185
Repo Rate 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -54601.00 -34000 -62000 -37000 -31000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -104204.00 -100000 -115000 -115000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.30 -2 -2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
Imports (USD Million) 199115.00 219000 225000 232000 231000 239000
Exports (USD Million) 144514.00 180000 190000 195000 200000 206000
Terms of Trade (points) 104.87 98.72 94.64 94.64 93.84 94.64
Capital Flows (USD Million) 125285.00 -25000 22000 62000 40200 25000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 34578.00 42500 46000 50000 50000 53000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12716.00 10500 10500 11000 11000 11000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -74338.00 -70000 -71000 -72000 -73000 -73000
Tourist Arrivals 249143.00 1000000 1200000 1500000 1800000 2000100

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.90 120 120 125 125 125
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -12.9 -12.9 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -398821.00 -149000 -145000 -115000 5000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3337.96 2847 3231 3415 3405 3302
Government Revenues (USD Million) 173861.00 350000 300000 280000 360000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 572682.00 499000 445000 395000 355000 350000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 633565.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394
Government Spending To GDP (%) 37.80 42 42 40.3 40.3 40.3

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) 52.60 49 51 52 53 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.80 51 51.1 49 50 50
Services PMI (points) 46.70 51 50.8 50.1 50 50.5
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 45.40 51 52 50 51 50
Composite Pmi (points) 46.80 49.4 51 48 50 50.4
Industrial Production (%) -15.30 -1.6 1.1 2.3 3.4 0.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.40 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -16.50 -1 0.9 2.9 3.5 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 64.80 77.8 78.6 78.6 78.3 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 15.80 0.2 1.4 1.4 3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 15.50 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 4.00 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 2.60 -4.3 1 1 1.2 0.3
Factory Orders (%) 8.00 -5.2 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.3
Business Inventories (%) -1.30 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -67.15 64 35 25 20 33
Wholesale Inventories (%) -1.20 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 23114.00 45500 35000 35000 24000 30000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1672.33 1620 1750 1750 1900 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 94.40 91 93 95 97 99
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -0.20 5 10 8 7 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 27.50 13 10 10 7 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 0.00 1 -3 2 4 2.5
Ism New York Index (%) 39.50 42 45 48 52 52
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2.61 -1.6 -1 0 0.5 -0.6
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -6.10 5 2 2 8 5
Chicago Pmi (points) 36.60 48 50.2 51 49 52
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 12.20 15 16.3 16.5 16.5 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 0.54 1.2 1.6 1.8 2 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 180.56 180 200 240 250 300
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -7.20 3 2.6 2.6 10 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 1199.00 -500 2000 2000 2000 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 65.00 100 -200 -200 -200 -200
Leading Economic Index (points) 117.99 126 126 126 126 125
Crude Oil Rigs 185.00 250 360 450 400 450
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -8.16 3.5 2 2 3.5 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 2.00 7 9 10 12 4
Mining Production (%) -14.10 -2 3.2 2.1 3.8 2.3

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 78.10 77 75 76 80 88
Retail Sales MoM (%) 17.70 1.5 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -6.10 2.2 3 3 2.1 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 12.40 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13180.84 11484 13011 13484 13444 13298
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 17787.52 14244 16193 16911 18143 16549
Personal Spending (%) 8.20 -1.7 -1 0.5 0.5 0.7
Personal Income (%) -4.20 -1.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 23.20 16 13 12 10 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) -68.78 9.25 20.44 -12.32 -70.16 20.89
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10847.42 11000 10900 10700 10600 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Economic Optimism Index 47.00 47 49 49 50 49
Redbook Index (%) -5.70 4 4 4 4 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1177.00 3250 3000 3500 4000 6000
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.49 0.47 0.44 0.42 0.4 0.38
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 75.40 78 79 79 79 79

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Building Permits (Thousand) 1220.00 1050 1000 1000 1200 1200
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 974.00 1150 1180 1200 1210 1170
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 676.00 690 650 620 640 560
Pending Home Sales (%) -5.10 -1.5 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 3910.00 2200 2500 2700 3000 3200
Construction Spending (%) -2.10 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.4
Housing Index (%) 0.20 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 58.00 61 55 58 52 55
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.29 3.3 4.45 3.3 3.3 4.7
Mortgage Applications (%) -1.80 -3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 224.08 225 228 222 222 222
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.30 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.