United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.70 3 3 2.9 3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -50082.00 -51450 -55000 -52000 -47000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 94.22
93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
Stock Market 26743.50
points
25777 25482 25193 24906 23790
Government Bond 10Y 3.07
percent
2.93 2.98 3.03 3.09 3.3
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20
percent
2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6 1.6
GDP 19390.60
USD Billion
19800 19800 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 18514.60
USD Billion
18574 18716 18782 18996 19491
Gross National Product 18767.67
USD Billion
17787 17941 17991 19256 18684
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3320.71
USD Billion
3240 3296 3353 3407 3432
GDP per capita 53128.54
USD
53500 53500 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45
USD
55220 55220 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 149.90
USD Billion
156 156 154 154 162
GDP From Construction 666.90
USD Billion
663 678 684 684 706
GDP From Manufacturing 2000.40
USD Billion
2007 2037 2050 2052 2121
GDP From Mining 392.50
USD Billion
388 398 402 403 414
GDP From Public Administration 2083.90
USD Billion
2139 2143 2136 2138 2232
GDP From Services 11785.60
USD Billion
11958 12048 12080 12092 12547
GDP From Transport 485.70
USD Billion
484 491 498 498 511
GDP From Utilities 278.70
USD Billion
284 291 286 286 303
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls 201.00
Thousand
195 165 193 182 170
Government Payrolls -3.00
Thousand
5 12 1 15 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 204.00
Thousand
190 160 188 178 161
Manufacturing Payrolls -3.00
Thousand
20 10 12 1 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 201.00
Thousand
208 208 208 208 208
Continuing Jobless Claims 1645.00
Thousand
1685 1651 1636 1630 1625
ADP Employment Change 163.00
Thousand
193 160 178 177 150
Employed Persons 155542.00
Thousand
155730 155964 156189 156390 154000
Unemployed Persons 6234.00
Thousand
6188 6103 6023 5959 5722
Average Hourly Earnings 0.40
percent
0.2 0.2 0.22 0.23 0.23
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours
34.4 34.4 34.52 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent
62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.82
percent
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.40
percent
8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4
Productivity 105.08
Index Points
105 106 106 106 108
Labour Costs 109.33
Index Points
110 110 110 111 114
Job Vacancies 7313.00
Thousand
6687 6674 6717 6732 6717
Job Offers 6939.00
Thousand
6913 6919 6917 6915 6911
Challenger Job Cuts 38472.00
Persons
38727 62300 37080 36800 63500
Wages 22.73
USD/Hour
22.85 23.25 23.65 24.05 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.42
USD/Hour
21.49 21.85 22.05 22.45 24
Wage Growth 4.83
percent
4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour
7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.60
percent
0.65 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65
Population 325.72
Million
328 328 329 329 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month
2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month
4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.30
percent
60.4 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3
Full Time Employment 128577.00
Thousand
128738 128999 129244 129452 130382
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month
2300 2300 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month
1485 1492 1488 1484 1469
Part Time Employment 26913.00
Thousand
26982 27002 26997 26998 26998
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70
percent
3 3 2.9 3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.3 0.3 0.12 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 251.85
Index Points
254 255 257 258 269
Core Consumer Prices 258.14
Index Points
259 260 262 263 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.25
Index Points
115 116 116 117 124
Producer Prices 116.30
Index Points
117 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices Change 2.80
percent
3 3 2.8 3.1 3.2
Export Prices 127.30
Index Points
129 129 129 129 119
Import Prices 127.40
Index Points
127 126 126 126 126
Food Inflation 1.40
percent
1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 110.12
Index Points
110 111 111 112 120
Core Producer Prices 115.30
Index Points
116 117 117 118 124
CPI Housing Utilities 259.88
Index Points
261 261 264 266 276
CPI Transportation 213.48
Index Points
211 209 214 221 220
Pce Price Index 108.31
Index Points
109 117 109 110 121
Inflation Expectations 3.00
percent
2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.37
percent
2.62 2.87 2.87 3.12 3.37
Money Supply M0 3584502.00
USD Million
3614937 3606586 3604350 3603872 3603682
Money Supply M1 3702.80
USD Billion
3691 3729 3767 3804 4141
Money Supply M2 14217.00
USD Billion
14258 14416 14575 14734 16297
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124694.00
USD Million
125061 124904 124871 124870 124872
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4170556.00
USD Million
4360790 4358306 4352601 4350218 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16794750.00
USD Million
16774321 16777591 16778386 16778594 16778668
Loans to Private Sector 2217.37
USD Billion
2276 2337 2389 2434 2653
Private Debt to GDP 202.80
percent
198 198 195 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment 18938.00
USD Million
5411 6303 6326 6333 6333
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -50082.00
USD Million
-51450 -55000 -52000 -47000 -53000
Exports 211077.00
USD Million
206000 205000 207000 210000 206000
Imports 261159.00
USD Million
257000 260000 259000 257000 259000
Current Account -101460.00
USD Million
-105000 -102000 -109000 -103000 -125000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt 19180854.00
USD Million
-7980634 -7977962 -7966377 -7965937 -7954592
Terms of Trade 106.98
Index Points
102 102 102 102 94.09
Capital Flows 52174.00
USD Million
-4018 25781 35123 40113 40167
Foreign Direct Investment 47253.00
USD Million
46873 47709 46901 47375 47284
Net Long Term Tic Flows 74804.00
USD Million
49236 49879 49649 49620 49625
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes
8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10674.00
BBL/D/1K
9806 9980 9809 10030 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
5.2 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.8
Tourism Revenues 21491.00
USD Million
21452 21477 21460 21472 21467
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
6572800 6594500 6591200 6587400 6588300
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million
11923 12283 12241 12200 11141
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent
108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-3.9 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -214148.00
USD Million
-47267 -58790 -59598 -59958 -60423
Government Spending 3170.56
USD Billion
3200 3225 3231 3253 3358
Government Revenues 219115.00
USD Million
316273 299086 295111 294542 294258
Government Debt 21458850.00
USD Million
21548969 21796964 22054794 22309049 24718189
Fiscal Expenditure 433263.00
USD Million
363540 356324 354709 354501 354681
Asylum Applications 6901.00
Persons
6929 6963 6978 6982 6981
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million
600321 752325 599577 599947 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent
37.89 38.06 38.09 38.11 37.73
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.30
Index Points
55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.60
53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.50
54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Services PMI 52.90
Index Points
52.9 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Composite Pmi 53.40
Index Points
53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 4.90
percent
3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.40
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 3.10
percent
2.8 2.1 1.8 1.81 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.08
percent
78.2 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -1.70
percent
0.34 -0.3 0.33 0.33 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00
percent
0.44 0.38 0.33 0.32 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.20
percent
0.21 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.20
percent
0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27
Factory Orders -0.80
percent
0.3 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.2
New Orders 497754.00
USD Million
499257 498692 498551 498516 498502
Business Inventories 0.60
percent
0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.31 0.2
Changes in Inventories -26.93
USD Billion
19.5 69 -23.3 -6.55 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.60
percent
0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 22245.00
Companies
23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 2012.60
USD Billion
2042 2064 2079 2094 2225
NFIB Business Optimism Index 108.80
Index Points
102 103 107 105 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.90
Index Points
21 21 25 10.17 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 24.00
Index Points
20 5 10 8.49 3
Ism New York Index 76.50
percent
56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.00
Index Points
18 21 19 17 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 30.90
Index Points
31.4 27.9 20.1 32 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13
0.15 0.9 0.7 0.19 0.05
Chicago Pmi 63.60
Index Points
59 59.1 61 58 56
Total Vehicle Sales 16.72
Million
16.88 19.4 16.89 16.88 18.7
Car Production 2.45
Million Units
2.98 2.97 3.1 3.2 3.54
Car Registrations 445.58
Thousand
455 476 481 474 481
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.06
BBL/1Million
-0.58 -2 0.06 0.06 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -1719.00
Thousand Barrels
-500 1000 17.19 17.19 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 86.00
Billion cf
67.12 69.77 69.88 69.89 69.89
Leading Economic Index 123.61
Index Points
124 125 126 126 132
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps
22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP
129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
Crude Oil Rigs 866.00
859 855 854 854 853
API Crude Oil Stock Change 1.25
BBL/1Million
-0.29 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.3
Steel Production 7275.00
Thousand Tonnes
7283 6870 7330 7280 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points
5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
3 3 2 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points
74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
17 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
7 6 7 7 6
Mining Production 14.10
percent
12.5 11 9 11 4
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.80
Index Points
100 93 95 96 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent
0.3 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.60
percent
5.2 4 4.2 6.49 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.30
percent
0.42 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.4
Consumer Spending 12841.20
USD Billion
12900 13049 13041 13175 13590
Disposable Personal Income 15566.48
USD Billion
15731 15776 15784 15782 15745
Personal Spending 0.40
percent
0.36 0.7 0.34 0.34 0.5
Personal Income 0.30
percent
0.33 0.4 0.33 0.33 0.33
Personal Savings 6.70
percent
6.5 6.6 6.7 6.81 5.2
Consumer Credit 16.60
USD Billion
15.52 15.05 15.05 15.04 15.04
Private Sector Credit 9383.23
USD Billion
9406 9451 9495 9536 9843
Bank Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5.25 5.5 5.5 5.75 6
Economic Optimism Index 55.70
52.9 52.3 52 51.3 50
Redbook Index 5.40
percent
5.73 5.79 5.79 5.79 5.79
Chain Store Sales 3782.00
USD Million
4641 4563 4586 4581 4582
Gasoline Prices 0.75
USD/Liter
0.76 0.72 0.68 0.64 0.51
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70
percent of GDP
78.68 81.2 78.76 78.79 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 1229.00
Thousand
1230 1230 1320 1277 1315
Housing Starts 1282.00
Thousand units
1250 1330 1300 1239 1280
New Home Sales 627.00
Thousand
580 600 615 635 590
Pending Home Sales -2.30
percent
-1.4 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5340.00
Thousand
5500 5600 5500 5375 5000
Construction Spending 0.10
percent
0.3 1 0.41 0.41 0.4
Housing Index 0.20
percent
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.37 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 67.00
70 68 66 68.28 53
Mortgage Rate 4.88
percent
4.79 4.79 4.79 4.79 6.5
Mortgage Applications 1.60
percent
0.42 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Case Shiller Home Price Index 213.07
Index Points
212 213 215 218 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.30
percent
64.42 64.56 64.58 64.63 64.99
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 15.30
percent
15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.65
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius
19.24 3.01 -1.15 18.73 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm
63.34 48.58 46.48 56.22 55.37