The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8 in December 2018, little-changed from a preliminary estimate of 53.9 and below November's final 55.3. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since September 2017 as new business rose at a softer rate and production growth eased to a 15-month low. In addition, the pace of job creation fell to an 18-month low and business confidence was the weakest since October 2016. Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Markit Economics.

Manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to be 53.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 53.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Manufacturing PMI
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US Manufacturing PMI Revised Lower to 15-Month Low: Markit

The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8 in December 2018, little-changed from a preliminary estimate of 53.9 and below November's final 55.3. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since September 2017.

Production growth remained solid in December, and at a rate that matched that seen in November. The rise in output was attributed to greater new order volumes. That said, the upturn was nonethless the joint-weakest in 15 months.

Following a slight pick up in November, new order growth eased in December. Though strong, the pace of expansion was the weakest since September 2017. Although some firms stated that the upturn was driven by new order inflows from newly acquired clients, others cited concerns surrounding a drop in client demand compared to earlier in the year.

Conversely, new export business grew at an accelerated pace in December. New orders from abroad increased for the fifth successive month and at the fastest rate since January amid stronger foreign client demand.

That said, a weaker overall rise in new orders led to a drop in business confidence among manufacturing firms in December. The degree of optimism was strong, but well below the long-run series average. Positive sentiment was dampened by concerns surrounding the longevity of new business growth. Moreover, future output expectations were at their lowest since October 2016.

Despite a moderate rise in backlogs in December, the rate of job creation softened to an 18-month low. Although firms noted an increase in workforce numbers following greater production requirements, others suggested that low rates of employee retention had weighed on growth.

Meanwhile, rates of both input price and output charge inflation eased in December. Greater cost burdens were reportedly due to raw material stockpiling among manufacturers, shortages of electronics components and the ongoing impact of tariffs. That said, the rate of inflation dipped to an 11-month low. Factory gate prices meanwhile rose at the weakest rate in 2018.


Markit | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/2/2019 3:09:53 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 54.10 59.30 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 55.30 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 54.40 54.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 60.70 62.00 37.60 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.40 54.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.00 4.10 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.40 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.20 2.10 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.73 78.60 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 -4.30 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.10 -1.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.40 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 502677.00 515334.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.10 0.20 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.60 0.50 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 89.77 -36.81 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.70 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22103.00 22245.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.82 2007.53 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.40 104.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 65.40 67.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 9.10 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.90 11.50 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 14.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 2.77 -5.22 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -5.10 17.60 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.40 66.40 81.00 20.70 Index Points [+]
Car Production 3.00 2.71 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 431.72 436.69 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.55 17.49 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.68 -1.68 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -81.00 -91.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 7503.00 8066.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 124.80 124.54 124.80 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -0.56 -6.27 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 852.00 873.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 74.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 18.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7425.00 7571.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 13.40 12.90 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Manufacturing PMI

In the United States, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Manufacturing PMI - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
53.80 55.30 57.90 50.70 2012 - 2018 Monthly
SA




Country Last Previous
Australia 49.50 Dec/18
Brazil 52.60 Dec/18
Canada 53.60 Dec/18
China 49.70 Dec/18
Euro Area 51.40 Dec/18
France 49.70 Dec/18
Germany 51.50 Dec/18
India 53.20 Dec/18
Indonesia 51.20 Dec/18
Italy 49.20 Dec/18
Japan 52.60 Dec/18
Mexico 49.70 Dec/18
Netherlands 57.20 Dec/18
Russia 51.70 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 54.50 Dec/18
Singapore 51.10 Dec/18
South Africa 50.70 Dec/18
South Korea 49.80 Dec/18
Spain 51.10 Dec/18
Switzerland 57.80 Dec/18
Turkey 44.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 54.20 Dec/18
United States 53.80 Dec/18


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