The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 53 in February of 2019 from a preliminary reading of 53.7 and 54.9 in January. The reading pointed to the lowest expansion in factory activity since August of 2017, amid slower rises in output and new orders. Notably, the increases were smaller than their respective long-run trends, with growth rates dipping to 17- and 20-month lows, respectively. Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Markit Economics.

Manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to be 52.10 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 51.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 50.20 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Manufacturing PMI
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US Factory Growth Revised Lower: Markit

The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 53 in February of 2019 from a preliminary reading of 53.7 and 54.9 in January. The reading pointed to the lowest expansion in factory activity since August of 2017, amid slower rises in output and new orders. Notably, the increases were smaller than their respective long-run trends, with growth rates dipping to 17- and 20-month lows, respectively.

Meanwhile, foreign client demand continued to rise marginally. A sustained upturn in new orders led to a further rise in employment, with backlogs also increasing. 

At the same time, inflationary pressures softened in February. Rates of both input price and output charge inflation eased from January, with the former edging down to an 18-month low.

Midway through the first quarter of 2019, manufacturing firms indicated a solid, albeit softer, improvement in the health of the sector, with the index registering its lowest level for 18 months.

Production increased further in February, albeit at a slower pace. Panellists reported that the upturn stemmed from a sustained expansion in new business and efforts to clear backlogs. That said, the rise in output was modest overall, with growth the softest since September 2017 and below the long-run trend.

Similarly, new business received by manufacturers expanded at a slower rate in February. The modest upturn was the weakest since June 2017. Although panellists stated that firmer client demand drove the latest increase, some firms noted that longer lead times were pushing clients to find alternatives. Foreign client demand, however, continued to increase. Though marginal, the rise in new export orders quickened since January.

On the price front, input cost inflation eased to an 18-month low in February. The increase in purchasing prices was nevertheless sharp, reflecting higher raw material costs and tariffs. Factory gate prices rose solidly, albeit at the secondslowest rate since December 2017. 

The rate of job creation was faster than the series trend in February, with firms raising their workforce numbers solidly. Pressure on capacity was exhibited by another monthly rise in backlogs of work. Although only fractional, the latest increase extends the current sequence of order book accumulation to 19 months.

A slower rise in new business reportedly led to softer growth in buying activity. Growth in pre-production inventories also eased in February as stocks of inputs were used in production. 

Finally, expectations towards the one-year outlook for output remained positive in February. Panellists were buoyed by forecasts of further upturns in new business. That said, the degree of confidence slipped to the second-lowest since November 2016 (behind December 2018). 


Markit | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/1/2019 2:53:27 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 54.20 56.60 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.00 54.90 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 56.00 54.20 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.70 56.70 62.00 37.80 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.50 54.40 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.50 3.90 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 -0.40 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.00 2.80 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.23 78.26 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.40 1.30 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 0.70 2.20 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.10 0.30 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.20 -0.50 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 499876.00 499194.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 0.10 0.10 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.60 0.00 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 97.07 89.77 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 1.10 0.40 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22232.00 22103.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.82 2007.53 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 101.70 101.20 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 61.10 63.40 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -4.10 17.00 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.70 8.80 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 16.00 -2.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.43 0.05 2.77 -5.25 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 13.10 1.00 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 64.70 56.70 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.64 2.61 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 445.50 401.53 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.57 16.70 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -3.86 7.07 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -204.00 -149.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -4624.00 -4227.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 125.13 124.80 125.13 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -2.13 -2.58 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 833.00 834.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7647.00 7568.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 12.50 15.40 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Manufacturing PMI

In the United States, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Manufacturing PMI - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
53.00 54.90 57.90 50.70 2012 - 2019 Monthly
SA




Country Last Previous
Australia 54.00 Feb/19
Brazil 53.40 Feb/19
Canada 52.60 Feb/19
China 49.90 Feb/19
Euro Area 49.30 Feb/19
France 51.50 Feb/19
Germany 47.60 Feb/19
India 54.30 Feb/19
Indonesia 50.10 Feb/19
Italy 47.70 Feb/19
Japan 48.90 Feb/19
Mexico 52.60 Feb/19
Netherlands 52.70 Feb/19
Russia 50.10 Feb/19
Saudi Arabia 56.60 Feb/19
Singapore 50.40 Feb/19
South Africa 46.20 Feb/19
South Korea 47.20 Feb/19
Spain 49.90 Feb/19
Switzerland 55.40 Feb/19
Turkey 46.40 Feb/19
United Kingdom 52.00 Feb/19
United States 53.00 Feb/19


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