The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 102.7 in December 2019 from 104.7 in November, missing market expectations of 103.1. Seven out of the ten index components dropped, two improved, and one was unchanged. The frequency of plans to raise compensation declined 2 points, still it remains one of the highest readings in the survey’s 46-year history. Three percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, unchanged and near a record low. On the other hand, small businesses continued to hire and create new jobs with actual job creation matching November’s reading, the highest since May. An increased number of small business owners reported better business conditions and expect higher nominal sales in the next three months. Overall, the Main Street economic machine continued to push the economy forward. NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States averaged 98.36 Index Points from 1975 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 108.80 Index Points in August of 2018 and a record low of 80.10 Index Points in April of 1980. source: National Federation of Independent Business

NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 97.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 96.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Nfib Business Optimism Index is projected to trend around 97.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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United States Nfib Business Optimism Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
102.70 104.70 108.80 80.10 1975 - 2019 points Monthly
SA



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-08 10:00 AM Sep 101.8 103.1 104.1 103.6
2019-11-12 11:00 AM Oct 102.4 101.8 103.5 102.5
2019-12-10 11:00 AM Nov 104.7 102.4 102.8 102
2020-01-14 11:00 AM Dec 102.7 104.7 103.1 104
2020-02-11 11:00 AM Jan 102.7 102.9
Go to our Calendar for more events. Or learn more about the Calendar API for direct access.


News Stream
2019-12-10
US Small Business Optimism Beats Forecasts
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose to 104.7 in November 2019 from 102.4 in October, beating market expectations of 102.8. It is the largest month-over-month gain since May 2018, led by a 10-point improvement in earnings. Earnings, or the frequency that owners report positive profit trends, rose 10 points, 1 point below the record set in May 2018. Also, owners reporting it is a good time to expand increased by 6 points and those expecting better business conditions increased by 3 points. On the other hand, the NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 6 points in November to 72, the lowest reading since May 2018. “Owners are most closely focused on issues that directly impact their business, including the real, significant tax relief they were given two years ago, and they’re anxious to see that relief made permanent”, said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

2019-11-12
US Small Business Optimism Improves in October
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose 0.6 points from the previous month to 102.4 in October 2019, but below market expectations of 103.5. Eight out of ten index components improved, as talk of a recession faded, supported by GDP-producing plans for job creation, inventory investment, and capital spending. Job creation exceeded that in September, as small businesses continued to hire and create new jobs. Capital spending went up and inventory investment rebounded from a modest negative level in the prior month. Rising labor compensation advanced and remained strong historically, and the frequency of plans to raise compensation also rose. Higher selling prices remained subdued, so rising labor costs are still not pushing up inflation on Main Street. The Uncertainty Index dropped 4 points, still remaining historically high heading into an election year.

2019-10-08
US NFIB Business Optimism at 6-Month Low
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell 1.3 points from the previous month to 101.8 in September 2019, below market expectations of 104.1. Three index components were unchanged and six dropped. Still, the index remained at a historically strong level with continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory investment, all consistent with solid, but slower growth. Rising labor compensation remained historically strong and fewer firms reported higher selling prices, pointing that increasing labor costs are still not pushing up inflation. Credit market conditions remain among the most supportive in the 46-year survey history. The Uncertainty Index advanced 2 points, revisiting high levels of concern, suggesting that small business owners are more reluctant to make major spending commitments when the future becomes less certain.

2019-09-10
US Small Business Optimism Deteriorates in August
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points from the previous month to 103.1 in August 2019, as fewer owners said they expect better business conditions and real sales volumes in the coming months. Still, job creation accelerated, positive earnings trends improved, and quarter-on-quarter sales gains remained strong. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points, suggesting that small business owners are reluctant to make major spending commitments. The main impediment to more growth is the record level of no qualified workers.

2019-08-13
US Small Business Optimism Bounces Back in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose 1.4 points from the previous month to 104.7 in July 2019, slightly below market consensus of 104.9. Expectations for better business conditions increased five points while those reporting the current period as a good time to expand advanced two points. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose five points to a net 22 percent of owners. In addition, plans to create new jobs and make capital outlays advanced and earnings trends improved, supported by a solid improvement in sales trends. Reports of higher average selling prices stabilized, with no evidence of a pickup in inflation, after surging in June. Credit conditions remained very supportive, interest rates on loans were historically low, and there were few complaints about credit availability. The Uncertainty Index fell 10 points, reversing a surge in June that reached the highest level since March 2017.

2019-07-09
US NFIB Business Optimism at 3-Month Low
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 103.3 in June 2019 from 105 in the previous month. Six Index components dropped, three improved, and one was unchanged. Both capital spending plans and actual outlays declined, reversing last month’s gains. The inventory component strengthened as owners said existing inventory stocks were lean and planning to add to them. Sales and earnings trends weakened, while expected credit conditions remained strong and are projected to tighten. Uncertainty levels increased to the highest level since March 2017.


United States Nfib Business Optimism Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 NFIB members. This questions include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 47.20 48.10 77.50 29.40 points [+]
Services PMI 52.80 51.60 61.00 49.30 points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.00 53.90 62.00 37.80 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.40 52.60 57.90 50.30 points [+]
Composite Pmi 52.70 52.00 61.00 50.00 points [+]
Industrial Production -1.00 -0.70 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.30 -0.90 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.02 77.37 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.00 0.20 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 0.80 0.00 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.30 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.30 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 493029.00 496962.00 549482.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.70 0.20 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.20 0.10 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.44 69.40 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.10 0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22910.00 22483.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1868.66 1857.53 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 102.70 104.70 108.80 80.10 points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.80 3.30 39.00 -34.30 points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 2.40 58.50 -57.90 points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -5.00 -1.00 27.00 -44.00 points [+]
Ism New York Index 39.10 50.40 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -3.20 -1.30 47.60 -59.90 points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.56 -0.76 2.79 -5.29 [+]
Chicago Pmi 48.90 46.30 78.60 21.20 points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.10 16.60 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.53 2.57 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 373.49 385.66 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.55 1.16 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 6678.00 9137.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -109.00 -44.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 129.78 129.35 129.78 45.48 points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 673.00 659.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 1.10 -5.95 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Crude Oil Imports -595.00 1776.00 2201.00 -2518.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Fuel Production -105.00 -1.00 570.00 -699.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Distillate Stocks 8171.00 5330.00 11205.00 -13011.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Cushing Crude Oil Stocks 342.00 -821.00 4737.00 -4184.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 8.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Gasoline Production 394.00 -1286.00 1082.00 -1494.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Steel Production 7233.00 7407.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Refinery Crude Runs 76.00 -386.00 1572.00 -3253.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Mining Production 1.40 2.30 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index -7.00 -5.00 37.00 -32.00 points [+]
Heating Oil Stocks -168.00 -84.00 94208.00 -92090.00 Thousand Barrels [+]