The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index for the United States fell to 57.6 in December of 2018 from 60.7 in November and below market expectations of 59. The reading pointed to the weakest expansion in the services sector in five months, amid a slowdown in business activity and employment. Respondents also indicated that there is still concern about tariffs despite the hold on increases by the US and China and that capacity constraints have lessened; however, employment-resource challenges remain. Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to be 54.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 53.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 52.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
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US Services Growth Below Forecasts: ISM

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index for the United States fell to 57.6 in December of 2018 from 60.7 in November and below market expectations of 59. The reading pointed to the weakest expansion in the services sector in five months, amid a slowdown in business activity, employment, inventories and supplier deliveries.

A slowdown was seen in business activity (59.9 from 65.2), employment (56.3 from 58.4), inventories (51.5 from 57.5) and supplier deliveries (51.5 from 56.5). On the other hand, faster increases were recorded for new orders (62.7 from 62.5) and new export orders (59.5 from 57.5). The price pressue eased (57.6 percent from 64.3 percent) but still signalled 34th consecutive month of growth. 

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December listed in order are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Information; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in December is Mining.

Respondents also indicated that there is still concern about tariffs despite the hold on increases by the US and China and that capacity constraints have lessened while employment-resource challenges remain. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.


ISM | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
1/7/2019 3:51:00 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 54.10 59.30 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 55.30 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 54.40 54.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 60.70 62.00 37.60 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.40 54.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.00 4.10 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.40 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.20 2.10 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.73 78.60 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 -4.30 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.10 -1.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.40 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 502677.00 515334.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.10 0.20 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.60 0.50 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 89.77 -36.81 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.70 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22103.00 22245.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.82 2007.53 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.40 104.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 65.40 67.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 9.10 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.90 11.50 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 14.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 2.77 -5.22 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -5.10 17.60 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.40 66.40 81.00 20.70 Index Points [+]
Car Production 3.00 2.71 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 431.72 436.69 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.55 17.49 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.68 -1.68 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -81.00 -91.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 7503.00 8066.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 124.80 124.54 124.80 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -0.56 -6.27 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 852.00 873.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 74.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 18.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7425.00 7571.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 13.40 12.90 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
57.60 60.70 62.00 37.60 1997 - 2018 Monthly
SA




Country Last Previous
China 53.80 Dec/18
Japan 24.00 Dec/18
United States 57.60 Dec/18


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