The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States climbed 12.9 points from the previous month to +4.3 in July 2019, beating market expectations of +2, after posting the largest decline on record last month. New orders fell at softer pace (-1.5 vs -12.0 in June), and shipments increased (7.2 vs 9.7). Unfilled orders and inventories continued to move lower, while delivery times were longer. The employment index dropped to its lowest level in nearly three years (-9.6 vs -3.5). On the price front, input price increases continued to moderate somewhat (25.5 vs 27.8), while the pace of selling price increases remained modest (5.8 vs 6.8). Indexes assessing the six-month outlook indicated that firms were fairly optimistic about future conditions. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 8.74 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 39 Index Points in April of 2004 and a record low of -34.40 Index Points in February of 2009.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 5.20 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 5.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 4.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.