US personal income decreased 0.1% month-over-month in January of 2019, the first fall since November 2015, after rising 1% in December and missing forecasts of a 0.3% gain. The decrease in personal income in January primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments, and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit. Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, went up 0.3% in January, after a 0.5% advance in December. Estimates for January and December were released together due to the recent partial government shutdown. In December, US personal income jumped 1% from a month earlier, following an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in November. Considering 2018, personal income increased 4.5%, compared with a 4.4% gain in 2017. Personal Income in the United States averaged 0.53 percent from 1959 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in May of 2008 and a record low of -4.70 percent in January of 2013.
Personal Income in the United States is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Income in the United States to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Income is projected to trend around 0.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.