Personal spending in the United States increased 0.4 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent gain in October and above market expectations of a 0.3 percent rise. Personal Spending in the United States averaged 0.54 percent from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 1987.

Personal Spending in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in the United States to stand at 0.35 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Spending is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Personal Spending
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-28 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
2018-10-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
2018-11-29 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3%
2019-01-31 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.3%
2019-03-01 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM
2019-03-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM



US Personal Spending Rises More than Expected

Personal spending in the United States increased 0.4 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent gain in October and above market expectations of a 0.3 percent rise.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by USD 54.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, in November, following an upwardly revised USD 108.7 billion rise, or 0.8 percent, in October. The increase in consumption was mainly due to durable goods (0.9 percent vs 0.8 percent in October). Meanwhile, consumption of non-durable goods (0.2 percent vs 0.9 percent) and services (0.4 percent vs 0.7 percent) slowed.

Real PCE advanced by USD 42.5 billion, or 0.3 percent in November reflecting a gain of USD 32.6 billion in spending for goods and a USD 13.2 billion rise in spending for services. Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the gain was spending for household electricity and gas. 

Personal income went up USD 40.2 billion, or 0.2 percent in November, after a USD 88.0 billion, or 0.5 percent gain in October and lower than market consensus of a 0.3 percent gain. Increases in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income were partially offset by declines in personal dividend income and social security benefits. Farm proprietors’ income increased USD 14.9 billion in November, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

Personal outlays rose USD 56.6 billion in November.  Personal saving was USD 944.2 billion in November and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.0 percent.

Disposable personal income (DPI) grew USD 37.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, in November. Real DPI went up 0.2 percent.

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent month-over-month in November, following a 0.2 percent rise in the previous month while markets were expecting no growth. Cost of goods fell by 0.3 percent, compared with a 0.2 percent increase in October, as nondurables declined 0.5 percent (vs 0.3 percent in October) and durable goods edged up 0.1 percent, the same as in the prior month. Meanwhile, prices of services went up 0.2 percent, the same pace as in the previous five months. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices were up 0.1 percent, the same as in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Year-on-year, the PCE price index advanced 1.8 percent, following a 2 percent gain in the prior month, and the core index rose 1.9 percent, above a 1.8 percent gain in October.



BEA | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
12/21/2018 3:31:03 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 98.30 97.50 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 1.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 4.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 1.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12953.29 12842.02 12953.29 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15742.81 15700.50 15742.81 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.80 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.00 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 22.15 24.98 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9579.18 9493.05 9579.18 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.35 5.25 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 52.30 52.60 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 6.70 8.90 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3959.00 3812.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.67 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.60 77.30 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Personal Spending

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity in the United States and is a key driver of growth. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Spending - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Personal Spending - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.40 0.80 2.80 -2.10 1959 - 2018 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




Country Last Previous
France -0.30 Nov/18
Netherlands 1.70 Oct/18
United States 0.40 Nov/18


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