Personal spending in the United States rose 0.9 percent from a month earlier in March 2019, beating market expectations of 0.7 percent and following a 0.1 percent gain in February. That was the biggest increase in personal spending since August 2009, buoyed by increases in consumption of durables, nondurables and services. Personal Spending in the United States averaged 0.53 percent from 1959 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 1987.

Personal Spending in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in the United States to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Spending is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Personal Spending
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-01 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM -0.5% 0.6% -0.2% -0.2%
2019-03-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.1% -0.6% 0.3% 0.4%
2019-04-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-04-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5%
2019-05-31 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.9% 0.2%
2019-06-28 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM
2019-07-30 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.3%



US Consumer Spending Rises the Most in 9-1/2 Years

Personal spending in the United States rose 0.9 percent from a month earlier in March 2019, beating market expectations of 0.7 percent and following a 0.1 percent gain in February. That was the biggest increase in personal spending since August 2009, buoyed by increases in consumption of durables, nondurables and services.

Due to the recent partial federal government shutdown, this report combines estimates for February and March 2019. Personal Income is updated for January and February and new estimates are available for March. Personal consumption expenditures are updated for January and new estimates are available for February and March.

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019

Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion (0.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March, and real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in March primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits to persons that were partially offset by decreases in personal interest income and farm proprietors’ income.

In March, real PCE increased $87.4 billion, which reflected a $66.3 billion increase in spending on goods and an increase of $27.9 billion in spending on services. Within goods, increases were widespread, with spending on motor vehicles and parts the leading contributor. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on health care.

Personal outlays increased $126.5 billion in March. Personal saving was $1.03 trillion in March, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.5 percent.

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2019

Personal income increased $35.6 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income increased $23.0 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $11.7 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in February, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees, government social benefits to persons, and personal dividend income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

In February, real PCE decreased $2.8 billion, which reflected a $23.4 billion decrease in spending on goods. This was partially offset by an increase of $16.4 billion in spending on services. Within goods, food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption was the leading contributor to the decrease. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on household electricity and gas.

Personal outlays increased $14.8 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.16 trillion in February, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.3 percent.


BEA | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/29/2019 12:42:44 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 102.40 97.20 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 1.70 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 3.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.10 1.30 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13071.00 13032.30 13071.00 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15939.42 15938.80 15948.29 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.90 0.10 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.10 0.20 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.50 7.30 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 10.28 15.45 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9724.94 9709.77 9724.94 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 58.60 54.20 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 5.20 5.40 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3690.00 3236.00 15875.00 2890.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.74 0.66 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.40 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Personal Spending

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. 1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption. PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Spending - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Personal Spending - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.90 0.10 2.80 -2.10 1959 - 2019 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




Country Last Previous
France -0.10 Mar/19
Netherlands 1.10 Mar/19
United States 0.90 Mar/19


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