US retail trade rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier in June 2019, the same pace as in May and above market expectations of 0.1 percent, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 0.7 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in May. Retail Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.35 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

U.S. Retail Sales
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-04-18 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Mar 1.6% -0.2% 0.9% 0.6%
2019-05-15 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Apr -0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-06-14 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM May 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
2019-07-16 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
2019-08-15 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Jul 0.4% 0.1%
2019-09-13 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Aug
2019-10-16 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.3%



US Retail Sales Beat Expectations

US retail trade rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier in June 2019, the same pace as in May and above market expectations of 0.1 percent, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods.

10 of 13 major retail categories showed month-over-month increases.

Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers advanced 0.7 percent, after a similar gain in the previous month; and those at building material stores rose 0.5 percent, recovering from a 1.5 percent drop in May. In addition, receipts at clothing stores were up 0.5 percent (vs -0.2 percent in May) and online and mail-order purchases jumped 1.7 percent, matching May's increase. Sales also rose at: furniture & home furniture stores (0.5 percent vs -0.1 percent); food & beverage stores (0.5 percent vs 0.1 percent); health & personal care stores (0.5 percent vs 0.9 percent); general merchandise stores (0.2 percent, the same as in May); miscellaneous store retailers (0.6 percent vs 0.8 percent); and restaurants and bars (0.9 percent vs 1 percent).

On the other hand, spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores was unchanged (vs -0.1 percent in May) while receipts at service stations fell 2.8 percent (vs -0.8 percent in May), reflecting cheaper gasoline, and those at electronics & appliance stores declined 0.3 percent (vs 0.8 percent in May).

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 0.7 percent in June after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.

Year-on-year, retail trade growth picked up to 3.4 percent from 2.9 percent in the previous month.


US Census Bureau | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/16/2019 12:47:04 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 98.40 98.20 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.40 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 2.90 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40 0.40 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13061.63 13032.30 13061.63 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 16028.80 15956.30 16028.80 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.60 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.10 6.10 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 17.09 17.46 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9801.37 9764.44 9801.37 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 56.60 53.20 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 4.70 6.20 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3588.00 3418.00 15875.00 2632.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.72 0.75 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.30 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


U.S. Retail Sales

Retail sales report in the US provides aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month. There are thirteen major types of retailers: Motor vehicle & parts dealers (around 20 percent of total sales), Food & beverage stores (13%), General merchandise stores (12.5%), Food services & drinking places (11%), Gasoline stations (10%), Nonstore retailers (9.2%), Building material & garden dealers (6%), Health & personal care stores (6%), Clothing & clothing accessories stores (5%), Miscellaneous store retailers (2.3%), Furniture stores (2%), Electronics & appliance stores (2%) and Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (1.7%). This page provides - U.S. December Retail Sales Increased More Than Forecast - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. U.S. Retail Sales - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.40 0.40 6.70 -3.90 1992 - 2019 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




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