United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia decreased to -1 in November 2019 from 8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 6. Shipments (-2 vs 4 in October), new orders (-3 vs 7) and backlog of orders (-11 vs 6) declined while employment softened (5 vs 13). Respondents expected employment (20 vs 16) and wages (54 vs 56) to continue to grow in the near future. The average growth rate of prices paid by manufacturing firms slowed (1.55 vs 2.40), while that of prices received accelerated slightly (1.80 vs 1.71), with the result that growth of prices received outpaced that of prices paid for the first time since September 2017. Still, firms expected growth of prices paid to rise and prices received to fall in the next six months. Overall, manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia rose to 8 in October 2019 from -9 in the previous month and against market expectations of -14. It was the highest reading since April, amid increases in all three main components: shipments (4 from -14 in September), new orders (7 from -14); and employment (13 from 3). Still, manufacturing firms continued to struggle to find workers with the skills needed and expected this difficulty to persist in the coming months. Also, backlogs of orders rebounded (6 from -11) and there was an improvement in local business conditions (4 from -15). Respondents reported a slowdown in the rates of growth of both prices paid (2.40 from 2.68) and prices received (1.71 from 2.59), which would continue in the near future. Overall, manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the next six months.

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia dropped to -9 in September 2019 from 1 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -11. Shipments (-14 from 5 in August) and new orders (-14 from 2) fell and backlogs of orders (-11 from -9) and local business conditions (-15 from -3) declined further. Firms struggled to find workers with the necessary skills, the indicator for the average workweek hit a nine-year-low (-10 from 4) while employment rebounded (3 from -6). Respondents reported that the growth of prices paid held fairly steady (2.68 from 2.69), while of prices received increased (2.59 from 1.66). Looking ahead, manufacturers expected wages and employment to continue to grow but finding workers to continue to be a struggle in the next six months and regarding prices firms expected that both prices paid and received slow in the near future.

The Fifth District Manufacturing Index rose to +1 in August 2019 from -12 in the previous month and above market expectations of -4, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and new orders rebounded from July's sharp declines and capital expenditures and inventories also increased, while the measure of local business conditions was slightly negative. Meanwhile, employment declined while the average workweek increased. Respondents reported persistent wage growth but still struggled to find workers with the necessary skills. They expected this struggle to continue, along with wage growth, in the coming months. Looking ahead, manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months.

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia fell to -12 in July 2019 from a downwardly revised 2 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 5. It was the lowest reading since January 2013, as shipments (-13 from 5 in June), new orders (-18 from -2) and employment (-3 from 4) dropped. Also, backlogs of orders declined to its lowest since April 2009 (-26 from -3), and local business conditions went down to -18 from 7, its largest one month drop on record. Additionally, raw materials (22 from 25) and finished goods (17 from 19) rose at a softer pace. On the price front, price pressures accelerated for both paid (3.04 from 1.89) and received (2.49 from 1.88). Firms were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district fell to 3 in June 2019 from 5 in May, below market consensus of 7. Employment (2 from 17 in May), raw materials (27 from 37) and finished goods (21 from 26) dropped. Meanwhile, shipments (7 from 2) and new orders (1 from 0) improved. On the price front, price pressures eased for prices paid (1.58 from 2.21) while accelerated for prices received (1.68 from 1.53). Firms were optimistic about growth in the coming months.