The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia fell to 3 in June 2019 from 5 in May, below market consensus of 7. Employment (2 from 17 in May), raw materials (27 from 37) and finished goods (21 from 26) dropped. Meanwhile, shipments (7 from 2) and new orders (1 from 0) improved. On the price front, price pressures eased for prices paid (1.58 from 2.21) while accelerated for prices received (1.68 from 1.53). Firms were optimistic about growth in the coming months. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 2.79 Index Points from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29 Index Points in September of 2018 and a record low of -44 Index Points in February of 2009.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be -2.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at -10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 3.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.