The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia jumped to 16 in February 2019 from -2 in the previous month, easily beating market consensus of 8. It was the highest reading since September, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments (12 vs -8) and new orders (19 vs -11). In addition, the index for local business conditions rose to 4 from -11, while the employment index fell slightly but remained in expansionary territory (15 vs 19). Firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the next six months. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 2.76 Index Points from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29 Index Points in September of 2018 and a record low of -44 Index Points in February of 2009.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 10.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 3.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.