The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia fell to 3 in April of 2019 from 10 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 10. Both shipments (-2 from 2 in March) and new orders (-2 from 9) dropped and slowdowns were seen in number of employees (18 from 23) and wages (25 from 33). On the other hand, inventories of finished goods rose at a faster pace (23 from 17). Meantime, price pressures eased for prices received (1.84 from 2.07) while accelerated for prices paid (3.04 from 2.84). Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the next six months. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 2.79 Index Points from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29 Index Points in September of 2018 and a record low of -44 Index Points in February of 2009.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 11.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at -10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 3.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.