Vietnam - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Vietnam including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Vietnam economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.38 8.4 6.4 8 8.5 6.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.01 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.67 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 percent
Interest Rate 6.25 6.5 6 6 6.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade -100.00 -730 -1600 -176 -392 -1400 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 58 58 60 60 62 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 23053.00
23045 23045 23045 23045 23045
Stock Market 933.39
points
868 822 780 739 597
Government Bond 10y 4.85
percent
5.02 5.22 5.44 5.66 6.65
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 7.38
percent
8.4 6.4 8 8.5 6.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.79
percent
7.1 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.4
GDP 223.86
USD Billion
229 229 247 247 260
GDP Constant Prices 1466960.00
VND Billion
2283210 3412625 678028 1556445 3867050
Gross National Product 4294560.00
VND Billion
4447017 4492110 4569412 4556528 5090279
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1066160.30
VND Billion
1104009 1115204 1134395 1131196 1263704
GDP per capita 1834.65
USD
1910 1910 1990 1990 2100
GDP per capita PPP 6171.88
USD
6256 6256 6500 6500 6800
GDP From Agriculture 223482.00
VND Billion
344876 504608 74740 237114 571802
GDP From Construction 79553.00
VND Billion
130858 215087 34458 84406 243728
GDP From Manufacturing 275737.00
VND Billion
408024 592668 130212 292557 671587
GDP From Mining 87660.00
VND Billion
139620 224318 41298 93007 254188
GDP From Public Administration 42172.00
VND Billion
62994 94215 19897 44744 106761
GDP From Services 558608.00
VND Billion
887506 1324048 276807 592683 1500358
GDP From Transport 43219.00
VND Billion
67313 99264 21379 45855 112482
GDP From Utilities 9182.00
VND Billion
14167 20222 4361 9742 22915
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.01
percent
2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6
Employed Persons 54.10
Million
54.4 54.2 54.73 54.83 55.6
Unemployed Persons 1.11
Million
1.12 1.3 1.12 1.12 1.5
Minimum Wages 3980.00
VND Thousand/Month
3980 3980 4210 4210 4450
Population 95.50
Million
96.36 96.59 96.86 97.14 99.87
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 62 60 60 62
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 58 55 55 58
Wages 5066.00
VND Thousand/Month
5100 5460 6200 5900 6900
Wages High Skilled 11409900.00
VND/Month
12800000 12800000 12800000 10747306 13200000
Wages In Manufacturing 4999.00
VND Thousand/Month
5510 5820 6100 5800 6750
Wages Low Skilled 4851300.00
VND/Month
4901300 4901300 4901300 4927488 5207510
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
7.94 7.9 8.18 8.36 8.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 76.90
percent
76.87 77.2 76.87 76.87 77.8
Living Wage Family 7475300.00
VND/Month
7500000 7500000 5835000 7475300 7800000
Living Wage Individual 4131400.00
VND/Month
4131400 4039000 4131400 4131400 4059000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.67
percent
3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.03
Index Points
112 113 112 114 121
Core Inflation Rate 1.37
percent
2.4 2.3 1.38 1.38 1.8
GDP Deflator 147.41
Index Points
138 165 135 133 176
Export Prices 109.00
Index Points
104 108 104 103 114
Import Prices 105.40
Index Points
103 104 103 102 108
Producer Prices 103.02
Index Points
110 119 109 109 132
Inflation Rate Mom 0.55
percent
0.37 0.2 0.37 0.36 0.2
CPI Transportation 94.32
Index Points
92.15 93.69 93.6 97.43 100
Food Inflation 4.60
percent
2.6 2.3 3 4.51 4
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.25
percent
6.5 6 6 6.5 5.5
Interbank Rate 3.92
percent
4.17 3.67 3.67 4.17 3.17
Money Supply M0 851441.00
VND Billion
927325 960887 987349 1013810 1334522
Money Supply M1 1713832.00
VND Billion
2199691 4010000 2682161 2557632 60000000
Money Supply M2 7125801.00
VND Billion
7776911 8290000 8293760 8502555 11100000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49497.31
USD Million
53688 44501 59155 59379 48901
Deposit Interest Rate 4.78
percent
5.03 4.53 4.53 5.03 4.03
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -100.00
USD Million
-730 -1600 -176 -392 -1400
Exports 19600.00
USD Million
18559 20200 19488 19245 24300
Imports 19700.00
USD Million
19289 21800 19664 19637 25700
Current Account 4300.00
USD Million
5232 1800 4719 4727 2730
Current Account to GDP 2.90
percent
0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1
External Debt 91207.60
USD Million
95454 30000 101526 103454 38000
Terms of Trade 103.42
Index Points
101 104 101 101 106
Foreign Direct Investment 9678.20
USD Million
5931 6100 4883 5349 8500
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 1183.10
Thousand
1005 1312 1285 1427 1470
Capital Flows 3000.00
USD Million
3929 1280 7190 3742 700
Crude Oil Production 255.00
BBL/D/1K
259 259 259 259 360
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
58 58 60 60 62
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-4.09 -6.1 -3.92 -3.94 -5.3
Government Budget Value -186932.00
VND Billion
-185130 -290000 -191473 -196763 -230000
Government Spending 293105.82
VND Billion
303511 306589 311865 310985 347414
Government Revenues 1101377.00
VND Billion
1160413 1300000 1209270 1230552 1570000
Fiscal Expenditure 1288309.00
VND Billion
1345542 1590000 1400743 1427315 1800000
Military Expenditure 4961.80
USD Million
5094 4977 5019 5015 5513
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Manufacturing PMI 55.70
52 52 51.2 52.3 53
Industrial Production 12.30
percent
10.03 8.1 10.17 10.18 6.9
Manufacturing Production 12.30
percent
13.5 8.9 13.7 13.71 7.7
Changes in Inventories 130578.82
VND Billion
137093 137616 139735 141853 165830
Car Registrations 21571.00
32700 33980 20805 20800 45461
Internet Speed 9503.83
KBps
15635 16564 17469 18349 25962
IP Addresses 8616202.00
IP
10983805 11348316 11624505 11916150 13888046
Mining Production -5.00
percent
-2.54 2.1 -1.76 -2.59 3.3
Competitiveness Index 4.36
Points
4.29 4.54 4.32 4.33 4.7
Competitiveness Rank 55.00
63 67 60 60 70
Ease of Doing Business 68.00
67 69 63 63 60
Electricity Production 18300.00
Gigawatt-hour
17110 20300 17073 17094 25500
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
35 33 35 35 37
Corruption Rank 107.00
110 110 108 107 109
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 12.50
percent
11.29 9.3 11.1 11.1 7.9
Consumer Spending 3086297.83
VND Billion
3195861 3228268 3283821 3274562 3658144
Retail Sales Mom 4.20
percent
2.01 3.1 2.08 2.08 6.9
Gasoline Prices 0.86
USD/Liter
0.81 0.77 0.73 0.69 0.38
Consumer Confidence 117.00
Index Points
121 103 123 125 110
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 26.00
percent
26 26 26 26 26
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.00
percent
18.32 18 17.98 17.87 18
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8.1 8 8.03 8.01 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 93.32
mm
267 149 33.91 159 155
Temperature 22.08
celsius
26.48 21.9 20.47 24.92 24.28