Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing inflation rate, trade balance, JOLTs job openings and producer prices. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK Q1 GDP growth, foreign trade, industrial production and construction output; Germany factory orders, industrial output and trade balance; China inflation, foreign trade and Caixin Services PMI; and Japan consumer confidence. Central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brazil will also be in the spotlight, as well as US-China trade talks.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 5/3/2019 5:10:52 PM
In the US the highly anticipated consumer price index report for April will probably show a pick up in inflation rate to a five-month high of 2.1 percent, recovering further from February's two-and-a-half-year low. In addition, the March trade deficit is likely to widen from an eight-month low seen in February. Other notable publications are JOLTs job openings, producer prices, wholesale inventories, IBD/TIPP economic optimism, consumer credit change and the government's budget statement.

Trade negotiations will also be keenly watched as investors hope that the US and China could reach an agreement.

Elsewhere in America, key data include: Canada unemployment figures, trade balance, Ivey PMI and housing data; Brazil consumer price inflation and retail trade; and Mexico inflation and consumer confidence. Central banks in Brazil, Chile and Peru will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

The UK will be publishing first-quarter GDP data, alongside business investment, trade balance, industrial production and construction output. The economy is expected to have grown by 0.5 percent in the first three months of the year, in part reflecting a larger-than-expected boost from companies building stocks ahead of recent Brexit deadlines. Elsewhere in Europe, investors will be waiting for: the Eurozone retail sales; Germany factory orders, industrial output and trade balance; and Italy and Spain Markit Services PMI. The Norges Bank will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday.

China will be publishing trade data for April, with markets expecting another fall in imports and a modest increase in exports amid ongoing trade talks with the US. Also, the country’s inflation rate will probably rise to a six-month high and producer prices should advance the most in four months. Markit will publish its Caixin Services PMI, with consensus pointing to a slowdown in services sector growth during April. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will be releasing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting and the summary of opinions from board members. Other important publications for Japan include consumer confidence, average cash earnings, household spending and Nikkei Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, important releases include trade balance and retail sales. Also, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Central Bank of Malaysia are likely to cut their key interest rates by 25bps next week, while the Bank of Thailand is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region are: India industrial production; Indonesia Q1 GDP growth and business morale; and the Philippines Q1 GDP growth, interest rate decision, inflation and trade balance.

Week Ahead