Palladium futures extended losses to around $1,610 per ounce, the lowest since December 2021, on expectations that interest rates around the world, and especially in the US, will remain higher for longer, hurting global growth and demand for palladium. On top of that, the metal's price surge has driven automakers to replace it with cheaper platinum. In fact, Anglo American Platinum said last year that up to a million ounces of palladium could get switched with platinum over the next five years. Data also showed that platinum substitution is estimated to have reached 340 koz in 2022. For 2023 it's expected to rise to over 500 koz, more than double the figure in 2021 (240 koz). Bank of America forecasted palladium to trade at $1,865 per ounce in 2023, down from $2,126 last year; while ANZ Research projected palladium to pick up to $2,150 by December 2023 from $1,927 in December 2022, helped by better auto growth prospects, and before the drop to $1,600 by December 2024.
Historically, Palladium reached an all time high of 3440.76 in March of 2022. Palladium - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on February of 2023.
Palladium is expected to trade at 1551.03 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1364.05 in 12 months time.