The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI increased to 51.3 in April of 2021 from 49.1 a month earlier, signaling a recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest reading marked the first time expansion in the private sector in 14 months, as increases in both output and new orders, leading to a strong rise in input purchases and inventory building. At the same time, employment fell for a third straight month, however, leading to capacity pressures at a number of businesses, with backlogs of work rose to the greatest extent since the survey began six years ago. On the price front, input costs rose at the fastest pace since March 2020, due to a faster rise in raw material prices. As a result, selling prices continued to increase, although the pace of inflation eased slightly from the previous survey period. Finally, business sentiment strengthened to the highest since the end of 2019. source: Markit Economics
Composite PMI in Mozambique is expected to be 48.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite PMI in Mozambique to stand at 49.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mozambique Standard Bank PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 points in 2022 and 52.00 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.
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Mozambique Standard Bank PMI
The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI™ is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 private sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services. Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted. The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.