United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades1983-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast

The CBI distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the United Kingdom rose by 7 points from the previous month to +25 in June 2021, the highest level since August 2018 and well above market forecasts of +14. The latest reading signaled a solid increase in retail sales volumes, following the relaxation of coronavirus-induced restrictions and as the rapid pace of vaccination encouraged shoppers to go out and spend. Within the retail sector, grocers reported that sales remained above seasonal norms, as did sub-sectors related to home improvements. Department stores saw an upturn in their fortunes, with sales now average for the time of year. And although clothing stores reported that sales remined poor for the time of year, this was to a much lesser extent than last month. Meanwhile, retail order growth was the strongest since September 2015.

The CBI distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the United Kingdom eased to 18 in May 2021, from a near three-year high of 20 in the previous month and below market forecasts of 30. This was a period when all retailers were once again open for business, but before the full relaxation of restrictions for the hospitality and leisure sectors, which also play a vital role in supporting activity. Meanwhile, investment intentions for the coming 12 months rose at the fastest pace since February 1994, while employment continued to fall sharply in the year to May. By sectors, grocers, non-store retailers, hardware & DIY, and furniture & carpets retailers reported sales significantly above seasonal norms; while sales in clothing and specialist food were below normal. Stock levels in relation to expected sales were seen as too low, and to the greatest extent since the start of the series in 1983. Average selling prices grew at their fastest rate since November 2019.

The CBI distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the United Kingdom jumped to 20 in April of 2021, the highest reading since June of 2018 and beating market forecasts of -5. Retail sales volumes were viewed as good for the first time in 2021 and are expected to remain above seasonal norms in the year to May, with non-essential retail stores across the UK able to re-open by late-April. Hardware & DIY and furniture & carpets subsectors saw sales significantly above seasonal norms, supported by a consumer focus on home improvement. Grocers and non-store retailers also reported that sales were good for the time of the year. However, clothing and footwear store sales remained well below seasonal norms.

The CBI distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the United Kingdom stood at -45 in March 2021, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations of -37, suggesting retail sales orders continued to fall at a sharp rate due to the severe impact of the lockdown for many non-essential retailers. Sales volumes fell particularly sharply in sectors such as clothing, footwear, furniture & carpets and for department stores. The grocery sector, which remains open to customers, reported the biggest year-on-year decline in sales since April 2020, due to a period of extraordinarily high demand in March 2020 as shoppers stocked-up on essential items ahead of the first national lockdown. Looking ahead, retailers expect sales to grow in the year to April, the first time expectations have been positive since December 2019, reflecting the anticipated reopening of non-essential retail from mid-April.