Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Currency 1.23 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.07
Stock Market (points) 7556.23 7279 7078 6882 6691 6326
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.15 3.29 3.48 3.67 3.88 4.32

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 -1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.40 0.1 -1 -1.5 -2.1 0.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 5
Inflation Rate (%) 11.10 11.5 10.9 9 6 5.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 2.00 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 3.00 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.2
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3135.00 -7800 -5000 -2400 578000 1500
Current Account (GBP Million) -33768.00 -33200 -24600 -19400 -15000 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.00 -5.8 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.40 102 107 107 107 107
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.70 -7.1 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Business Confidence (points) -48.00 -40 -25 5 15 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 46.50 49 50.3 50.8 51.5 52.9
Services PMI (points) 48.80 50 51.4 52.4 53 53.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -44.00 -48 -29 -25 -17 -12
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.7 1 1 1 0.4
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.20 -1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.40 0.1 -1 -1.5 -2.1 0.1
GDP (USD Billion) 3186.86 2870 3080 3080 3080 3080
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 559167.00 555493 553188 551688 547424 556048
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 617624.00 606949 602550 608360 604654 607556
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 101510.00 97190 99779 99831 99378 97287
GDP per Capita (USD) 46209.11 41900 42700 42700 42700 42700
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 45839.15 44910 46700 46700 46700 46700
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 7.40 4.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
Monthly GDP MoM (%) -0.60 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.30 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.5
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 3590.00 3345 3328 3535 3515 3349
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 32293.00 30904 31730 31624 31615 30935
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 50462.00 49314 49401 50858 49402 49364
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 4830.00 3961 3909 4804 4729 3965
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 24645.00 25433 24925 24042 24127 25459
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 395308.00 405517 402864 389297 387007 405923
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 17527.00 20079 20570 17079 17159 20099

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 5
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32739.00 32980 33000 33075 33500 33240
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1536.20 1520 1490 1480 1450 1400
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8142.00 8200 8300 8400 8400 8500
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24597.00 24700 24800 24700 248000 24800
Employment Rate (%) 75.50 75.9 76.2 76.2 76.4 76.3
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 3.30 16 12 -15 10 -5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.40 78.6 78.6 78.8 78.8 79
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.80 10 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2
Productivity (points) 101.80 102 103 103 103 103
Labour Costs (points) 112.10 117 120 117 116 120
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1225.00 1180 1050 1050 950 850
Wages (GBP/Week) 621.00 639 655 640 641 657
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 677.00 698 717 694 699 717
Wage Growth (%) 6.00 6.5 6.6 4.5 3.2 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 9.50 9.5 9.5 10.42 10.42 10.42
Population (Million) 67.53 67.44 67.95 67.95 67.95 67.95
Retirement Age Women (Years) 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men (Years) 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Change (Thousand) -52.00 36 30 26 50 25
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.70 32 32.2 31.9 32 31.9

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 11.10 11.5 10.9 9 6 5.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 2.00 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 126.20 128 130 133 131 135
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 126.20 128 130 133 131 135
Core Consumer Prices (points) 121.04 125 124 123 125 128
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.50 8.5 6.7 4.2 4 2.8
GDP Deflator (points) 111.93 119 121 120 119 125
Producer Prices Change (%) 14.80 14.6 11.2 8.2 6 4.5
Food Inflation (%) 16.20 13.8 10 8 5 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.90 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.50 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 13.30 11.5 10 8 7 5.5
Inflation Expectations (%) 6.20 8.4 6.5 5.5 5 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 141.61 125 126 141 138 132
CPI Transportation (points) 135.45 136 137 137 138 138
Core Producer Prices (points) 134.10 134 137 141 142 141
Retail Price Index (%) 14.20 19 15.6 12 9.2 8.5
Producer Prices (points) 134.60 136 140 142 142 143

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Interest Rate (%) 3.00 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.2
Interbank Rate (%) 3.68 4.18 4.68 5.18 5.68 5.88
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 93602.00 94900 95100 96700 96500 95100
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2563816.00 2523800 2482000 2500000 2510000 2420800
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3213819.00 3199100 3109100 3169100 3150000 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3699159.00 3600000 3612000 3620000 3629000 3660000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 1094203.00 1096500 1097100 1098000 1098000 1099100
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4531793.00 4532000 4555000 4585000 4585000 4620000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2770203.00 2810000 2840000 2840000 2840000 2910000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 4.95
Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.45
Private Debt to GDP (%) 187.20 215 211 211 211 211

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3135.00 -7800 -5000 -2400 578000 1500
Current Account (GBP Million) -33768.00 -33200 -24600 -19400 -15000 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -2.00 -5.8 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2
Imports (GBP Million) 72323.00 70500 68200 65200 62000 61100
Exports (GBP Million) 69188.00 67700 65200 62800 640000 62600
External Debt (GBP Million) 7181067.00 7277000 7304000 7304000 7304000 7429000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 10208.00 11600 15500 16500 16500 17500
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) 20013.00 10500 -5600 -5600 7000 12600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 729.00 820 810 840 830 850
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -8551.00 -8100 -7700 -7700 -7700 -8600
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -15656.00 -17800 -15600 -14600 -13600 -16700
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 2749.00 1800 1700 2090 1700 2300
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2730.00 2200 2200 2750 2500 2500

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.40 102 107 107 107 107
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.70 -7.1 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -13549.00 -12600 -16800 -24710 -745000 -10200
Government Spending (GBP Million) 112836.00 111200 114506 110577 110466 110600
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.70 47.3 47.2 47.2 47.2 47.2
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2459.90 2440 2490 2490 2490 2510
Fiscal Expenditure (GBP Million) 76785.00 95900 92460 85460 806000 80700
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 70167.00 72600 62750 60750 61000 73200
Asylum Applications (persons) 28746.00 9900 8650 7240 7240 7100

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 31.55 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 15.05 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 16.50 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Business Confidence (points) -48.00 -40 -25 5 15 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 46.50 49 50.3 50.8 51.5 52.9
Services PMI (points) 48.80 50 51.4 52.4 53 53.6
Industrial Production (%) -3.10 -2.4 -3.2 -4.8 1 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.20 -0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) -5.80 -1.7 -2.4 -3.1 0.9 1.5
New Orders (GBP Million) 12896.00 13600 13800 13800 13800 14180
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -5.00 -12 -6 1 4 5
Bankruptcies (Companies) 5595.00 5400 5300 4800 4200 3900
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 132412.00 139000 141000 143000 140000 145000
Car Production (Units) 69524.00 67000 70800 75500 70000 99000
Car Registrations 134344.00 115000 250000 150000 200000 110000
Small Business Sentiment (points) -39.00 -12 -5 10 12 19
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 1.20 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
Electricity Price (GBP/MWh) 167.81 338 383 433 490 629
Manufacturing Production MoM (Percent) 0.00 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.3
Leading Economic Index (%) -0.20 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Mining Production (%) -4.70 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2
Composite PMI (points) 48.30 50.5 51.8 52.2 52 53.4
Private Investment (%) -0.50 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) -44.00 -48 -29 -25 -17 -12
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.7 1 1 1 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -6.10 -3.4 3.2 3 3.5 2.6
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 347306.00 357017 354951 352953 340013 357374
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 357868.00 374529 369706 352500 350353 374904
Personal Savings (%) 7.80 7 6.4 6.4 6.4 6
Bank Lending Rate (%) 4.00 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.2
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 84.90 88 85 85 85 85
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.34 1.42 1.48 1.53 1.59 1.71
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 769.00 313 1280 1750 595 314
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -19.00 -23 -23 -17 -15 -11

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Housing Starts (units) 51730.00 42710 50200 50200 50200 44710
Construction Output (%) 5.70 3.8 3.6 2.4 4 4.2
Housing Index (points) 504.55 476 510 524 523 470
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 58.98 65 61 60 55 62
House Price Index MoM (%) -0.40 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5
House Price Index YoY (%) 8.30 6.6 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.4
Home Loans (GBP Million) 3966.00 2900 3200 3200 3200 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 65 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5
Mortgage Rate (%) 5.42 5.6 6 6.2 6.3 6.5
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 526.26 542 553 561 561 560
Construction PMI (points) 53.20 50.5 50.8 51.7 53.2 52.9
Construction Orders (%) 8.50 -10.4 -8 8.5 6 3.6