The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.29 in August of 2021 from an upwardly revised 0.75 in July, pointing to slower, but still above-average growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.11, down from +0.40 in July. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved down to +0.03 from +0.07 in July; and the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.12 in August from +0.38 in July. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category contributed +0.03, up from –0.09 in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.43 in August from +0.36 in July. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 5.99 in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.74 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2021.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.60 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.29 0.75 5.99 -17.74 1967 - 2021 Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-06-21 12:30 PM May 0.29 -0.09 0.15
2021-07-22 12:30 PM Jun 0.09 0.26 0.45
2021-08-23 12:30 PM Jul 0.53 -0.01 0.1
2021-09-23 12:30 PM Aug 0.29 0.75
2021-10-25 12:30 PM Sep 0.29
2021-11-22 01:30 PM Oct
2021-12-22 01:30 PM Nov


News Stream
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Edges Down
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.29 in August of 2021 from an upwardly revised 0.75 in July, pointing to slower, but still above-average growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.11, down from +0.40 in July. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved down to +0.03 from +0.07 in July; and the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.12 in August from +0.38 in July. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category contributed +0.03, up from –0.09 in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.43 in August from +0.36 in July.
2021-09-23
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Picks Up
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.53 in July of 2021 from a downwardly revised -0.01 in June, pointing to a pickup in overall business activity. Production-related indicators contributed +0.38, up from -0.09 in June. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category increased to +0.02 from -0.06; the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category rose to +0.30 from +0.14; while the personal consumption and housing category contributed -0.15,down from +0.01 in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.23 in July from +0.01 in June.
2021-08-23
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in June
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index went down to 0.09 in June of 2021 from a downwardly revised 0.26 in May. Production-related indicators contributed +0.01, down from +0.26 in May. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category moved down to +0.09 from +0.15. Meantime, the personal consumption and housing category contributed -0.08, up slightly from -0.11; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category increased to +0.06 from -0.04. The index’s three-month moving average declined to +0.06 from +0.80.
2021-07-22
Chicago Fed Activity Index Rebounds
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.29 in May of 2021 from a downwardly revised -0.09 in April, pointing to a pick up in economic growth, led by improvements in production-related indicators. Production-related indicators contributed +0.29, up from -0.05 in April; the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category rose to +0.16 from +0.06 and the contribution from the sales, orders, and inventories category was +0.02 compared to -0.06. On the other hand, the personal consumption and housing category contributed -0.18, down from -0.04. The index’s three-month moving average went up to +0.81 from +0.17.
2021-06-21

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.