Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Stock Market (points) 33863.29 33224 32139 31088 30071 28137
Currency 106.30 107 109 110 112 115
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.66 3.83 3.97 4.12 4.27 4.59

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.60 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.8 3.9 4 4.2 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 261.00 250 295 250 230 170
Inflation Rate (%) 7.70 7.4 6.9 5.4 4 1.9
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.5 5 5 5 5
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -73282.00 -67000 -61000 -59000 -65000 -65000
Current Account (USD Million) -251090.00 -210000 -200000 -200000 -190000 -180000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 137.20 138 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.70 -7.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Business Confidence (points) 50.20 50 49 51 52 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.60 50 49 51.7 51.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.40 53 51 52 54 53
Services PMI (points) 46.10 49.8 51 50 53 54
Consumer Confidence (points) 56.80 52 53 54 54 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.30 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 1
Building Permits (Thousand) 1512.00 1600 1550 1500 1500 1600
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.60 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3
GDP (USD Billion) 22996.10 22790 22790 22790 22790 23420
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 20021.72 20186 20143 20134 20302 20449
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 20063.65 20219 20164 20304 20345 20482
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3536.90 3642 3714 3625 3586 3689
GDP per Capita (USD) 61280.39 62200 63000 63000 63000 63000
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 63069.23 65500 68000 68000 68000 68000
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 5.90 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 201.00 241 241 203 204 244
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 602.40 655 657 610 611 663
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2256.00 2402 2359 2283 2288 2434
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 366.20 424 396 371 371 429
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2242.90 2267 2282 2270 2274 2296
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 14081.20 13910 13910 14250 14278 14090
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 536.40 520 510 543 544 527
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 281.80 274 285 285 286 278

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.8 3.9 4 4.2 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 261.00 250 295 250 230 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 233.00 220 285 245 220 170
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 28.00 0 10 5 10 0
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 32.00 20 15 10 9 12
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 240.00 250 310 280 280 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1551.00 1550 1600 1620 1650 1650
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 239.00 150 200 250 300 210
Employed Persons (Thousand) 158608.00 159500 160000 160000 160000 165000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6059.00 6100 6150 6200 6200 6000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.20 62.2 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.71 1 0.95 0.95 0.95 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.10 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8
Labour Costs (points) 127.62 131 133 134 135 136
Productivity (points) 113.14 114 114 114 114 112
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 10695.00 10000 9500 9500 9500 9000
Job Offers (Thousand) 10717.00 9500 9200 8900 8900 7900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 33843.00 33000 35000 34000 36000 40000
Wages (USD/Hour) 27.86 28.88 28.95 29.1 29.44 30.03
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 25.37 26.36 26.44 26.38 26.84 27.42
Wage Growth (%) 8.22 8 7 6 6 4
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
Population (Million) 332.40 335 335 335 335 335
Retirement Age Women 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Employment Rate (%) 60.00 60 60.2 60.1 60.1 60
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 132228.00 135000 136000 136000 136000 135000
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26394.00 26200 25500 24500 24500 24600
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 226.75 268 297 275 272 250

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 7.70 7.4 6.9 5.4 4 1.9
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 298.01 299 307 312 309 305
Core Consumer Prices (points) 299.47 302 303 308 310 313
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.30 6.2 5 4.6 3.8 3.5
GDP Deflator (points) 128.18 130 132 134 133 133
Producer Prices (points) 140.39 142 146 149 147 149
Producer Prices Change (%) 8.00 7.5 6.4 6 5.2 5
Export Prices (points) 155.50 149 145 140 145 139
Import Prices (points) 142.70 141 140 140 140 150
Food Inflation (%) 10.90 11.5 10.2 8 5 4
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.20 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 307.82 309 314 317 319 315
CPI Transportation (points) 267.98 269 270 271 272 273
Core Producer Prices (points) 136.60 140 142 142 142 145
Core Pce Price Index (points) 124.54 132 135 135 135 140
Pce Price Index (points) 124.10 128 130 130 130 135
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.90 5.2 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.3

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.5 5 5 5 5
Interbank Rate (%) 4.73 4.95 5.3 5.2 5 5
Money Supply M0 (USD Million) 5339700.00 5404200 5286200 5291200 5403200 4204200
Money Supply M1 (USD Billion) 20099.90 19890 18620 18000 17980 12400
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 21415.20 20650 18540 18500 17600 16500
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22685.90 21556 20500 19500 19500 20800
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8676870.00 8550000 8300000 8200000 8200000 8000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 33821.00 37550 38000 39000 41000 42602
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2780.49 2600 2500 2300 2300 2400
Fed Capital Account Surplus (USD Million) 6785.00 6785 6980 6980 6980 6980
Repo Rate 3.85 4.35 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85
Private Debt to GDP (%) 221.60 224 224 224 224 224

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -73282.00 -67000 -61000 -59000 -65000 -65000
Current Account (USD Million) -251090.00 -210000 -200000 -200000 -190000 -180000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Imports (USD Million) 331287.00 325000 321000 320000 326000 327000
Exports (USD Million) 258004.00 258000 260000 261000 261000 262000
External Debt (USD Million) 24048762.00 242000000 2440000000 2460000000 2440000000 2480000000
Terms of Trade (points) 114.52 106 104 100 104 92.67
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 74407.00 74000 60000 60000 60000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11975.00 12200 12500 12500 12500 12600
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 14678.00 15200 16200 16800 17500 18000
Tourist Arrivals 5697087.00 5760000 8000000 8000000 8000000 4760100
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -92220.00 -82500 -89000 -92000 -98000 -94500

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 137.20 138 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.70 -7.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -88000.00 -80000 -50000 -30000 30000 50000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3399.80 3389 3371 3420 3447 3433
Government Revenues (USD Million) 318576.00 370000 350000 350000 350000 370000
Government Debt (USD Million) 31238301.00 30900000 30600000 30600000 30600000 30000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 406374.00 450000 400000 380000 320000 320000
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 43.64 40 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Business Confidence (points) 50.20 50 49 51 52 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 47.60 50 49 51.7 51.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.40 53 51 52 54 53
Services PMI (points) 46.10 49.8 51 50 53 54
Composite PMI (points) 46.30 50.2 51 51.5 51.4 53
Industrial Production (%) 3.30 2.6 2 0.9 0.7 3.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.10 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4
Manufacturing Production (%) 2.40 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.8 2.8
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.88 79.8 79.6 79.3 80.5 79.5
Durable Goods Orders (%) 1.00 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.80 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.10 -0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2
Factory Orders (%) 0.30 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3
Business Inventories (%) 0.40 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) 61.94 45 60 60 60 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.60 0.5 1 0.8 0.5 1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 13125.00 18000 20000 20000 20000 21000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2522.60 2270 2100 2100 2100 2070
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 91.30 85 95 95 105 100
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 4.50 3 -2 5 8 6
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -19.40 5 10 10 20 15
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -9.00 -4 3 5 8 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.05 -0.2 -0.3 0.18 0.33 0.22
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -14.40 -19.5 -10 -5 3 5
Chicago PMI (points) 45.20 47 42 48 51 53
Car Production (Million Units) 1.84 1.85 1.95 2 2 1.9
Car Registrations (Thousand) 244.65 230 240 240 240 260
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 14.90 15 15 15.2 15.2 18
Natural Gas Stocks Change (billion cubic feet ) -80.00 100 100 100 100 -150
Leading Economic Index (points) 135.81 130 132 133 134 130
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments (points) -8.00 -5 2 4 6 5
Richmond Fed Services Index (points) -2.00 1 3 5 7 6
Crude Oil Rigs 627.00 625 620 600 600 580
Dallas Fed Services Index (points) -13.60 -16 -21 -15 -8 9
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (points) 8.50 6 4 7 8 11
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -4.82 6 2 2 2 0.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 6700.00 6500 6800 6800 6800 6350
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -10.00 -5 10 12 12 8
Mining Production (%) 6.90 4 3.5 2.1 1.8 2

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) 56.80 52 53 54 54 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.30 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 8.27 7 6 4 2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 1.30 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 14149.03 14107 14183 14269 14347 14291
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18771.60 18400 18600 18900 18000 17800
Personal Spending (%) 0.60 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1
Personal Income (%) 0.40 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6
Personal Savings (%) 3.10 3.4 4 5.1 6.1 7.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 24.98 23.15 46.07 39.53 25.33 23.45
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 11763.56 10000 10500 10500 10500 10000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.25 6.8 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5
Economic Optimism Index 40.40 41 49 52 53 51
Redbook Index (%) 7.50 6.1 4 3 3 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 2424.00 6700 2500 2500 2500 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.17 1.26
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 77.20 82 80 80 80 82

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023
Building Permits (Thousand) 1512.00 1600 1550 1500 1500 1600
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1425.00 1370 1400 1450 1600 1500
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 632.00 550 480 510 520 600
Pending Home Sales (%) -31.00 -25 -10.2 5 10 11
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4430.00 4350 4400 4700 4800 5000
Construction Spending (%) 0.20 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1
Housing Index (points) 392.00 390 385 380 375 380
Nahb Housing Market Index 33.00 32 40 45 50 70
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.67 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.4 6
Mortgage Applications (%) 2.20 0.6 1 -1 3 0.6
New Home Sales MoM (%) 7.50 -2 3.7 4 1.5 2.1
Pending Home Sales MoM (%) -10.20 -1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 310.99 312 310 300 295 284
Home Ownership Rate (%) 66.00 65.5 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.5