Markets Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Stock Market (points) 33748.67 32214 31285 30387 29511
Currency 104.02 106 107 109 111
Government Bond 10Y (%) 3.70 3.86 3.98 4.11 4.23

Overview Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.30 1.5 -0.1 0.6 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.60 1.2 0.6 0.3 1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.7 3.8 4 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 339.00 250 50 -10 50
Inflation Rate (%) 4.90 4.4 3.7 3.5 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 4.75
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -64.23 -85 -70 -38 -54
Current Account (USD Billion) -206.81 -210 -190 -180 -180
Services PMI (points) 55.10 53 48 52 53
Business Confidence (points) 46.90 47 46 50 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.40 49.7 48.8 50 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 50 51 53 53
Consumer Confidence (points) 59.20 62 56 57 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1417.00 1400 1450 1480 1550
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.70 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 133
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -4.5

GDP Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.30 1.5 -0.1 0.6 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.60 1.2 0.6 0.3 1
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 20246.40 20134 20175 20243 20449
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 20332.30 20304 20306 20365 20536
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3514.20 3625 3572 3527 3549
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 201.00 203 201 202 203
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 568.40 610 577 570 574
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2283.40 2283 2272 2290 2306
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 407.80 371 391 409 412
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2258.00 2270 2260 2265 2281
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 14331.40 14250 14336 14374 14475
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 557.30 543 554 559 563
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 271.00 285 271 272 274
GDP (USD Billion) 23315.08 23420
GDP per Capita (USD) 61855.52 63000
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 63669.71 68000
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.10 1.3

Labour Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.7 3.8 4 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 339.00 250 50 -10 50
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 283.00 185 -40 -7 43
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 232.00 280 280 220 200
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1795.00 1820 1900 1990 1980
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 278.00 160 -20 -45 65
Employed Persons (Thousand) 160721.00 158600 156900 155500 155900
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6097.00 5720 5900 5990 6100
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.6
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.60 62.5 62.6 63 63.2
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.71 0.72 0.75 0.8 0.9
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 7.40 7.4 7.5 7.7 8
Labour Costs (points) 128.50 132 133 132 132
Productivity (points) 112.72 113 112 112 112
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 9356.00 9400 9200 8000 8200
Job Offers (Thousand) 10103.00 9500 9200 9100 8900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 80089.00 103000 126000 130000 89000
Wages (USD/Hour) 28.75 28.85 29.02 29.2 29.26
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 26.18 26.1 26.39 26.62 26.58
Wage Growth (%) 5.58 4.8 4.2 3.5 2.6
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.20 1 0.6 0.5 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 4.30 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.70 6.7 6.8 7 7.3
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 134500.00 133600 131700 130900 132000
Employment Rate (%) 60.30 60.3 60.2 60 60.1
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26663.00 26000 25500 24600 23800
Population (Million) 334.23 335

Prices Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Inflation Rate (%) 4.90 4.4 3.7 3.5 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 303.36 309 308 307 311
Core Consumer Prices (points) 306.49 309 311 312 315
Core Inflation Rate (%) 5.50 5 4.1 3.5 3.2
GDP Deflator (points) 130.82 132 133 134 135
Producer Prices (points) 141.13 143 143 143 142
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.30 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.1
Export Prices (points) 151.10 150 148 142 138
Import Prices (points) 140.40 143 140 141 142
Food Inflation (%) 7.70 7.2 6.5 5.3 3
Import Prices YoY (%) -4.80 -3.4 -2.2 -0.8 1.2
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 4.40 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.5
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.20 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
CPI seasonally adjusted (%) 302.92 304 303 304 304
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.41 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 3.20 2.2 1.6 2.4 2
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 4.70 3.8 3.2 3 2.6
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.40 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 317.28 314 318 322 326
Core PCE Price Index (points) 127.76 126 122 120 118
CPI Transportation (points) 267.40 268 267 268 268
PCE Price Index (points) 126.86 121 115 114 114
Inflation Expectations (%) 4.40 3.9 3.2 3 2.5

Money Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 4.75
Interbank Rate (%) 5.52 5.5 5 5.4 4.5
Money Supply M0 (USD Million) 5592600.00 5291200 5253200 5184200 5100000
Money Supply M1 (USD Billion) 18629.20 19800 19980 19400 19200
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22910.60 22800 21500 20800 20000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8436255.00 8340000 8250000 8000000 7950000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 37628.00 37000 38000 39000 40000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 5.94 5.94 5.94 5.94 5.44
Repo Rate 5.22 5.22 5.22 5.22 4.72

Trade Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -64.23 -85 -70 -38 -54
Current Account (USD Billion) -206.81 -210 -190 -180 -180
Imports (USD Billion) 320.38 320 310 300 320
Exports (USD Billion) 256.15 235 240 262 266
Terms of Trade (points) 113.43 108 104 97.93 97.33
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12483.00 12600 12800 12600 12600
Tourist Arrivals 4116450.00 4110000 4960000 5150000 2390000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -96770.00 -92000 -98000 -94500 -94500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.70 -2.8

Government Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3486.20 3420 3431 3453 3521
Government Debt (USD Million) 31457815.00 31540000 31600000 31620000 31620000
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 133
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -4.5
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 37.00 36

Business Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Services PMI (points) 55.10 53 48 52 53
Business Confidence (points) 46.90 47 46 50 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.40 49.7 48.8 50 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.90 50 51 53 53
Composite PMI (points) 54.50 53 51.4 52 52.5
Industrial Production (%) 0.20 -0.5 -1.3 -1.1 0.6
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.90 -1.3 -0.8 2.8 3.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.70 79.3 78.9 79.5 79.3
Durable Goods Orders (%) 1.10 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 1.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.60 -0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.20 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.70 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2
Factory Orders (%) 0.90 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3
Business Inventories (%) -0.10 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.20 0.8 1.4 1 1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 14467.00 14500 16800 19000 17000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2306.95 2000 1900 2070 2100
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 89.00 89 93 100 100
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -31.80 -5 -16 6 10
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -10.40 3 9 15 12
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -15.00 5 8 5 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) 0.07 0.18 0.33 0.22 0.3
Chicago PMI (points) 40.40 48 51 53 52
Car Production (Million Units) 1.95 1.85 1.65 1.8 1.6
Car Registrations (Thousand) 289.90 265 245 260 240
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.05 14.7 12.8 14 14.2
Leading Economic Index (points) 137.78 133 134 130 132
Crude Oil Rigs 555.00 600 625 600 610
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -2.00 -5 -2 3 5

Consumer Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Consumer Confidence (points) 59.20 62 56 57 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 1.60 2.1 0.5 1 1.1
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.40 -0.3 0 0.4 0.5
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 14346.60 14269 14264 14258 14490
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 19742.60 18710 18945 19137 19860
Personal Spending (%) 0.80 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Personal Income (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Personal Savings (%) 4.10 4 3.5 2.6 2.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 26.51 18 16 18.32 22
Bank Lending Rate (%) 8.23 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9
Economic Optimism Index (points) 41.60 40 44 51 54
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.60 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 2508.00 2450 2380 5800 2400
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.95 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 75.20 79 78 72 73

Housing Actual Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Building Permits (Thousand) 1417.00 1400 1450 1480 1550
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1401.00 1400 1500 1200 1350
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 683.00 690 600 570 600
Pending Home Sales (%) -20.30 5 10 11 11
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4280.00 4200 4400 4520 4590
Construction Spending (%) 1.20 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2
Housing Index (points) 397.98 392 385 380 377
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 50.00 47 45 40 40
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.91 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.8
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) -1.10 1.5 0.8 2.8 1.7
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 302.30 323 309 307 307