United States Non Farm Payrolls1939-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar

The American economy added 850K jobs in June, the strongest job growth in 10 months, and well above market forecasts of 700K. Notable job gains in June occurred in leisure and hospitality (343K) as pandemic-related restrictions continued to ease in some parts of the country; public (230K) and private education (39K); professional and business services (72K); retail trade (67K) and other services (56K). Still, nonfarm payroll employment is down by 6.8 million, or 4.4 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Labour shortages continue to weigh on capacity production as many companies struggle to hire employees as enhanced unemployment benefits, ongoing child care responsibilities and health concerns may discourage some workers to find a job. To cope with the absence of workers, companies raise wages and benefits. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.4%.

The American economy likely added 700K jobs in June, which would be the strongest job growth in 3 months, led by the leisure and hospitality sector as companies try to boost production and services to meet rising demand. That would leave employment about 6.9 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. Yet, labour shortages continue to weigh on capacity production as many companies struggle to hire employees as enhanced unemployment benefits, ongoing child care responsibilities and health concerns may discourage some workers to find a job. To cope with the absence of workers, companies raise wages and benefits. Average hourly earnings likely increased 0.4% after a 0.5% gain in May, pushing the annual rate to 3.7% from 2.1%. That would renew concerns on inflationary pressures although the Federal Reserve has constantly reiterated price increases are temporary.

The US economy added 559K jobs in May of 2021, above an upwardly revised 278K in April but below market forecasts of 650K. That leaves employment about 7.6 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (292K), in public (103K) and private education (41K), and in health care and social assistance (46K). Still, supply constraints, rising inflation and labor shortages are weighing on capacity production as many workers mostly women, remain at home and government subsidies may discourage some workers to find a job. As such, businesses have been struggling to rehire workers to cope with surging demand, prompting them to raise wages in a bid to attract new employees. Yet, hourly earnings surged 0.5%, above forecasts of 0.2%.

The US economy likely added 650K jobs in May of 2021, well above 266K in April, as the economic recovery gathers steam amid a successful vaccination campaign and government support. That would leave employment about 7.6 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. Still, supply constraints, rising inflation and labor shortages are weighing on capacity production as many workers mostly women, remain at home and government subsidies may discourage some workers to find a job. As such, businesses have been struggling to rehire workers to cope with surging demand, prompting them to raise wages in a bid to attract new employees. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after surging 0.7% in April, pushing the annual rate to 1.6% from 0.3%. The May report will provide a more clear picture about the labour market status, show if existent shortages are likely to be temporary and could set the tone for the Fed's early tapering talks.